The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Senator MaxQue]

Federspiel is a family name or a word?

[Tender Branson]

Federspiel is a family name or a word?

It's his real last name.

In English, something like "feather game".

[Tender Branson]

LRF? I don't recognise that acronym.

Liste Rudi Federspiel

Local former FPÖ dude who's running with his own right-wing list.

http://www.rudi-federspiel.at/2012/home/team

[Sibboleth]

Federspiel is a family name or a word?

It's his real last name.

In English, something like "feather game".

Cockfighting?

[Tender Branson]

Federspiel is a family name or a word?

It's his real last name.

In English, something like "feather game".

Cockfighting?

Yes, one FPÖ-cock fights the other. I like when the FPÖ is splintered and fighting.

[Tender Branson]

First Gallup/Ö24 poll after the BCP:

[Tender Branson]

Because the BZÖ is below the 4% treshold, there are only 3 coalitions possible now:

* SPÖVP
* FPÖ-ÖVP or ÖVP-FPÖ
* SPÖ-FPÖ

[Colbert]

is there in austria some FPO/SPO coalition (on lander, city, or other)?

[Tender Branson]

is there in austria some FPO/SPO coalition (on lander, city, or other)?

At least not in the states.

There are 2500 cities/towns in Austria, so I have no clue if there's a SPÖ-FPÖ coalition anywhere.

Probably not, or only in some small towns nobody cares about.

[Tender Branson]

Strache's "We are the new Jews" is not liked by the Austrians, says a new Gallup poll:

...

Kind of similar to the FPÖ's drop in the polls after Pres. candidate Barbara Rosenkranz's statements of gas chambers and the attacks by Breivik in Norway. Don't think it will last very long, in a few weeks the FPÖ should be back at their usual 27/28% again, especially with the planned spending cuts/tax increase package that will be unveiled at the end of February ...

Here we are, 3 weeks later, and the FPÖ is back to 27% according to the new "Standard" poll:

28% SPÖ
27% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
16% Greens
  4% BZÖ
  1% Others

http://derstandard.at/1329703258346/Meinungsumfrage-OeVP-hat-sich-durchgesetzt---und-zahlt-die-Rechnung

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" poll regarding the planned start of "Hydraulic Fracking" in Lower Austria by the main Austrian Oil and Gas company OMV:

36% favor
39% oppose
25% have no opinion

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120225_OTS0008/profil-umfrage-befuerworter-und-gegner-der-schiefergasfoerderung-im-weinviertel-gleichauf

In Lower Austria, the OMV has found huge gas reserves, worth 30 years of Austria's annual gas demand.

The Greens have already spoken out against the project, even though the OMV has said that they will only use "clean fracking" in the future.

"Clean Fracking" means that, instead of aquifier-damaging chemicals, natural products like cornstarch would be used to fracture the rock layers and to extract the gas.

Currently, the ÖVP-held state government of Lower Austria has put the plans on hold, but the ÖVP-led Austrian Ministry of Economy will have the final say in that matter. And I guess that because of the pressure from Green groups and concerned citizens, they will only allow the OMV to frack by using "clean fracking" technology.

[Tender Branson]

A big reason why the ÖVP is against allowing Hydro-Fracking in Lower Austria right now:

In early 2013, state elections will be held in Lower Austria and the ÖVP there has to defend their absolute majority from 2008. And the ÖVP doesn't need angry (usually ÖVP voting) citizens in the area where the fracking should take place.

But the OMV is also the biggest taxpayer in Austria and one of the most profitable companies in the country, providing tons of jobs etc., so the ÖVP cannot be against it forever.

We'll probably see the ÖVP-led Ministry of Economy to okay Hydro-Fracking in the summer of 2013, after the Lower Austria election is fought - but before the 2013 Austrian Parliament election takes place.

In this case, everyone should be happy: The Lower Austria ÖVP, because they have avoided the issue during the election campaign, the Greens, because they get their clean fracking and the OMV, because they get their gas and the citizens because they get new jobs.

[Tender Branson]

The city (Poysdorf) where the huge gas reserves where found and where the OMV wants to start the Hydro-Fracking, was about 74% ÖVP and 7% FPÖ in the last state election in 2008. In the last parliamentary election the ÖVP got about 50%, FPÖ/BZÖ/CPÖ another 25%.

http://wahl08.bmi.gv.at/gm_31644.htm

The whole region north of Vienna is very conservative, so you can see why the ÖVP is very cautious in allowing hydrofracking this year. They have a lot to lose.

[Tender Branson]

Weekly Ö24/Gallup poll:



FPÖ seems to have recovered quite quickly from Strache's "Jews" quote.

Ö24 also reports that Strache has been invited by Rick Santorum for a meeting later this year.

And they report that the SPÖVP government could strategically call for early elections already in the fall of this year or in the spring of next year - instead of the regular date in the fall of 2013.

Strategically, because the SPÖ thinks it could run an election campaign based on wealth taxes and the ÖVP because of a tax system overhaul and because they think that Strache's FPÖ has now peaked and that Strache can be portrayed as "having no clue or solutions for economic matters".

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/daniel/Politik-Insider-Warum-Regierung-schon-bald-waehlen-lassen-will/57591173

[Tender Branson]

As you can see, the Gallup poll from today shows almost the same result like the actual election in 2008, just with 2 small differences:

* The BZÖ-vote has gone from 11% to 3%, and these 8% have gone to the FPÖ.
* The Greens went from 10% to 13%.

But the SPÖ has exactly the 29% like in 2008 and the ÖVP has also their 26% from 2008.

The Greens probably gained from the 6% who voted for "other" parties in 2008 (mainly the LIF and FRITZ).

[Colbert]

As you can see, the Gallup poll from today shows almost the same result like the actual election in 2008, just with 2 small differences:

* The BZÖ-vote has gone from 11% to 3%, and these 8% have gone to the FPÖ.
* The Greens went from 10% to 13%.

But the SPÖ has exactly the 29% like in 2008 and the ÖVP has also their 26% from 2008.

The Greens probably gained from the 6% who voted for "other" parties in 2008 (mainly the LIF and FRITZ).

quite boring, the Austrian electoral scene, no ?


I prefer spectacular changes, like PASOK fall or GOP primary race (smiley with tongue)

[Tender Branson]

As you can see, the Gallup poll from today shows almost the same result like the actual election in 2008, just with 2 small differences:

* The BZÖ-vote has gone from 11% to 3%, and these 8% have gone to the FPÖ.
* The Greens went from 10% to 13%.

But the SPÖ has exactly the 29% like in 2008 and the ÖVP has also their 26% from 2008.

The Greens probably gained from the 6% who voted for "other" parties in 2008 (mainly the LIF and FRITZ).

quite boring, the Austrian electoral scene, no ?


I prefer spectacular changes, like PASOK fall or GOP primary race (smiley with tongue)

Sometimes yes, sometimes no. I'd like an election this year too, not next year.

2012 is very boring when it comes to elections here. No state elections either.

It would be better if the Bundesrat would be transformed into some kind of Senate with 50 members that are directly elected in 50 Austrian "Senate districts". But that won't happen.

[Tender Branson]

Only a new Innsbruck poll this week:

27% FI
22% Greens
15% SPÖ
15% ÖVP
10% FPÖ
10% LRF
  1% TSB
  0% KPÖ
  0% Pirates

http://www.tt.com/csp/cms/sites/tt/Nachrichten/4404190-2/b%C3%BCrgermeisterin-allein-auf-weiter-flur.csp

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls out today.

Ö24/Gallup:

29% SPÖ
27% FPÖ
25% ÖVP
13% Greens
  3% BZÖ
  3% Others

Direct vote for Chancellor:

24% Faymann (SPÖ)
18% Spindelegger (ÖVP)
14% Strache (FPÖ)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120310_OTS0012/oesterreich-umfrage-spoe-bleibt-auf-platz-1-fpoe-legt-zu-oevp-verliert

Profil/Karmasin Motivforschung

29% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
14% Greens
  3% BZÖ
  4% Others

Direct vote for Chancellor:

19% Faymann (SPÖ)
14% Spindelegger (ÖVP)
13% Strache (FPÖ)
  5% Glawischnig (Greens)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120310_OTS0005/profil-umfrage-regierungsparteien-stagnieren-fpoe-wieder-auf-platz-zwei

[Tender Branson]

New Spectra poll for Upper Austria:

State elections

45% ÖVP (-2)
22% SPÖ (-3)
19% FPÖ (+4)
10% Greens (+1)
  4% Others (nc)

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/landespolitik/art383,834502

Federal elections

28% SPÖ (-3)
24% ÖVP (-3)
23% FPÖ (+4)
12% Greens (+2)
  8% BZÖ (-1)
  5% Others (+1)

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/innenpolitik/art385,835270,B

...

New Salzburg state elections poll by IGF in todays Kronen Zeitung newspaper (sample=513):

38% SPÖ (-1)
35% ÖVP (-2)
16% FPÖ (+3)
  9% Greens (+2)
  2% Others (-2)

[Tender Branson]

I was bored, so I created a map of all recent Austrian state elections by county and winning party and its share:



Grey = ÖVP (6 shades: 20-30%, 30-40%, 40-50%, 50-60%, 60-70%, 70-80%)
Red = SPÖ (3 shades: 30-40%, 40-50%, 50-60%)
Orange = BZÖ (3 shades: 30-40%, 40-50%, 50-60%)

Innsbruck City is the only county with 20-30% for the ÖVP, even though Tamsweg looks like 20-30% too, but it's actually the colour for 30-40% ... probably an optic effect

Zwettl is the only 70% or more ÖVP county.

2 districts in Carinthia (Wolfsberg and Feldkirchen) are 50-60% for the BZÖ.

I'm in the 40% SPÖ-coloured district of ZE.

[ObserverIE]

Is there a reason why the SPÖ does well in rural Salzburg?

[Tender Branson]

Is there a reason why the SPÖ does well in rural Salzburg?

There are mostly 2 reasons I guess:

* One reason is called Governor Gabriele Burgstaller, who is a more business-friendly, not-your-average SPÖ-hack common-sense Governor with ÖVP roots in her family herself. She covers a wide field of potential voters: business people who usually vote ÖVP, the base voters, young people, usual FPÖ-blue collar voters and Green voters.

* Rural Salzburg's economy has grown relatively fast in the past 8 years thanks to the state government's policies and investments into rural areas. Tourism is booming, employment rises by 3% annually, unemployment is the lowest in all of Austria, people are considerably well off even by Austrian standards (which are already high in EU standards).

[Hashemite]

There certainly is a demographic reason to it as well. Such stuff doesn't usually happen without there being a demographic reason to it.

[Tender Branson]

There certainly is a demographic reason to it as well. Such stuff doesn't usually happen without there being a demographic reason to it.

Not sure if that's a factor.

Rural Salzburg is demographically not much different from let's say Tirol or Upper Austria, and these regions are strongly ÖVP. The regions of Tirol and Upper Austria are also not wealthier than Salzburg, though wealthier than the Austrian average. The West in general is more wealthier, with Carinthia, Burgenland and Styria being on the lower end.