The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

I believe the 48-46 lead for the combined "Right" over the combined "Left" is the smallest in any survey since the 2006 election.

For the last 30 years, Austria has ALWAYS elected a Right-wing majority in parliament ...

[Tender Branson]

Stronach now has the support of the 3rd MP, Robert Lugar, a former BZÖ MP who is now an Independent in the Parliament. This means that Stronach doesn't need to collect the 2600 signatures from voters to be on the ballot in next years parliamentary elections, because 3 MP's are necessary to be on the ballot.



If 2 more MP's would join Stronach's party, then he could set up his own parliamentary club and get state funding and media coverage like the other parties. But this creation of a parliamentary club would have to be approved by a vote in the parliament, because defected members of MORE THAN ONE party would join Stronach. And it is unlikely that the whole parliament would approve the creation of a Stronach parliamentary club.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Frank-Stronach-hat-mit-Robert-Lugar-seinen-dritten-Abgeordneten/76267776

Also, FPÖ-leader HC Strache has posted a Anti-Semitic cartoon on his Facebook site which is very similar to the Anti-Jewish cartoons published in the Nazi propaganda outfit "Stürmer" in the 1930s and 1940s:



The cartoon shows 1 fat man (banks) which is served by another man (government), which takes away the "food" from the thin man (the regular people).

It was argued that the cufflinks on the "banker's" jacket were photoshopped by the FPÖ to resemble Stars of David which Jews needed to wear during the Nazi time. Also, a hooked nose instead of a normal nose was photoshopped on the "banker" - probably to picture the banker as an "evil Jew" ...

Strache of course says that the "leftist media" is interpreting stuff into the picture ...

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Strache-Cartoon-Neue-Anzeige/76320502

[Tender Branson]

Here's the Reuters article about the FPÖ's anti-semitic comic:

Austrian rightist chief accused of anti-Semitism over cartoon

(Reuters) - The World Jewish Congress called on Austrian politicians to condemn the posting of what it called an anti-Semitic cartoon by the country's far-right leader, saying on Thursday that Austria otherwise risked losing international credibility.

Prosecutors may investigate Heinz-Christian Strache for inciting hatred over the cartoon showing a fat banker with a hooked nose and six-point-star buttons on his sleeve gorging himself at the expense of a thin man representing "the people".

The leader of the Freedom Party (FPO), the Alpine republic's biggest opposition faction, has denied that the cartoon - published on his Facebook page - is anti-Semitic.

Critics including the head of Austria's Jewish communities say the cartoon resembles Nazi propaganda caricatures of Jews in the 1930s and 40s.

Nazi Germany annexed Austria in 1938 and a debate still simmers over whether Austrians were Hitler's first victims or his willing accomplices. Austria has 9,000 Jews today, compared with more than 200,000 before the Nazi takeover.

"Clearly, and not for the first time, the FPO leader is trying to whip up anti-Semitic sentiment. His repeated denials are not credible because his words and actions speak for themselves," said World Jewish Congress President Ronald Lauder.

"This scandal shows that anti-Jewish resentment is still widespread, and unscrupulous politicians are allowed to exploit it for electioneering purposes. That is mind-boggling, and it could have negative repercussions for Austrian Jews," he said.

Strache, 43, wrote on his Facebook page on Wednesday: "I vehemently and fundamentally reject all anti-Semitism.

"I say to all those who attempt to determine someone's origins by looking at a caricature of their nose, that this is the most deeply objectionable form of racism!"

ORIGINAL CARTOON DELETED

Another version of the cartoon - with English captions, a more bulbous nose and minus the star shapes on the buttons - also exists. Strache replaced his original posting with this version after the original provoked an outcry.

The Vienna prosecutor's office is considering launching an investigation into whether the posting of the cartoon broke Austrian anti-hate laws. A spokesman said on Thursday a decision would be made towards the end of next week.

The affair has provoked criticism from some Austrian politicians, but Lauder, a U.S. billionaire and the son of cosmetics company founder Estee Lauder, demanded that Austrian leaders ostracize Strache and his party.

"If Austria doesn't want to lose its credibility on the international stage, the leaders of the mainstream parties must sideline Strache and his FPO," he said.

A spokesman for Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann, a Social Democrat who governs with conservative coalition partners, noted that justice authorities were already examining the case.

"The chancellor has already said many times that he rigorously rejects any form of anti-Semitism, racism and incitement to hatred. This attitude of course still holds for all cases," he said in an email.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/23/us-austria-rightists-antisemitism-idUSBRE87M0NL20120823

[Insula Dei]

Sometimes the FPÖ just boggles the mind.

[Hatman 🍁]

lol Frank Stronach

[Tender Branson]

New IMAS poll for the Kronen Zeitung shows the FPÖ dropping to a record low:

28-30% SPÖ
24-26% ÖVP
18-20% FPÖ
12-14% Greens

No numbers for BZÖ, Stronach, Pirates or other parties - but about 14% remain. Usually, IMAS always shows the BZÖ higher than other pollsters at about 6-8% which means there are still 7% for Stronach, Pirates and others.

But it would be nice to see the FPÖ drop to 15%. I wouldn't really mind a Stronach party in parliament if I could see the FPÖ at a record low of 15%, with even a LOSS compared with 2008 ...

[Tender Branson]

New OGM trust index of Carinthian politicians:



The trust index is measured by taking the "I trust this politician" and subtracting the number of "I don't trust this politician".

Which means that only 2 politicans in Carinthia are trusted at the moment: Beate Prettner from the SPÖ and Green leader Rolf Holub, which is one of the reasons why the Greens poll at an unusual 15-20% in the state right now.

[Tender Branson]

The latest "Profil" poll also shows the FPÖ at a record low:

29% SPÖ
23% ÖVP
21% FPÖ
14% Greens
  7% Stronach
  2% BZÖ
  4% Others (Pirates, KPÖ, CPÖ, LIF etc.)

For the FPÖ, this represents a drop of 3% compared with their previous poll.

http://www.profil.at/articles/1234/560/339818/umfrage-umfrage-fpoe-sinkflug-stronach-7

[Tender Branson]

New Carinthia "Kurier" poll by the accurate OGM institute shows a far more conservative electorate than other recent polls:



55% Right (FPK+ÖVP+Stronach+BZÖ)
42% Left (SPÖ+Greens)

Also, this poll shows the SPÖ and Greens losing a lot of support compared with previous polls (The SPÖ was ahead of the FPK by about 10 points and the Greens were polling 15-20%).

Also, the incumbent FPK-governor Gerhard Dörfler leads in the direct vote for Governor with 25%, while Green leader Rolf Holub gets only 8%.

48% want new elections now. 30% want new elections early next year. 17% want elections take place regularly in 2014.



54% think Jörg Haider was strongly to blame for the corruption in Carinthia. 19% say he was partly to blame and 17% say he was not to blame for it.

51% don't think Haider would be on trial now, while 37% say he would be on trial because of the corruption scandals.

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/4509580-umfrage-kaernten-rechnet-mit-haiders-erbe-ab.php

...

The fact that the corrupt parties FPK, ÖVP and BZÖ would still get 48% among Carinthian voters is quite alarming to me.

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24/Gallup poll:

 29% SPÖ
 22% ÖVP
 20% FPÖ
 14% Greens
   9% Stronach
3-4% Pirates (the graphic says 4%, the article says 3%)
2-3% BZÖ (the graphic says 3%, the article says 2%)

Because the values in the graphic would add up to 101%, I think the values in the article for Pirates and BZÖ are the correct ones, as it would amount to 99% with 1% for other parties.

The article also says that Stronach is mostly backed by middle-aged men between ages 30 and 50. No surprise there. Also, Stronach is strongest in his home state of Styria with 20%.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FP-stuerzt-ab-SP-zieht-weg/76538561

[Tender Branson]

New Tyrol state elections poll by "Karmasin" for the TT:

38% ÖVP
16% SPÖ
15% Greens
14% FPÖ
  9% Dinkhauser List
  4% Pirates
  3% Gurgiser List
  1% Pfurtscheller List
  0% KPÖ
  0% BZÖ

http://www.tt.com/Tirol/5308449-2/tirols-vp-bei-nur-38-prozent-dreikampf-um-zweiten-platz.csp

[Tender Branson]

We are finally getting our military draft referendum in January next year:

http://derstandard.at/1345165347761/Spindelegger-kuendigt-Volksbefragung-zu-Wehrpflicht-an

It has been really quiet about this issue in the past months, but now the SPÖ and ÖVP leaders have agreed with the backing of their state chapters that a referendum will be held on either keeping the draft or implementing a professional voluntary army.

Polls show a close race. SPÖ, Greens and BZÖ favor a voluntary army, while ÖVP and FPÖ are for retaining the current draft system.

[Tender Branson]

Another BZÖ-MP, Elisabeth Kaufmann-Bruckberger, defects to Frank Stronach's team:

http://derstandard.at/1345165446164/Geruechte-BZOe-Mandatarin-soll-zu-Stronach-wechseln

Which means that Stronach needs 1 more to apply for parliamentary club status.

It looks like the BZÖ-people already know that they are not going to be in parliament anymore after the next election and therefore defect to Stronach who actually has a chance to clear the 4% treshold.

[Tender Branson]

New "Market" poll (taken this week):



KW means "Kalenderwoche" (calendar week).

[Tender Branson]

This poll would also mean that Red-Green (SPÖ-Greens) is tied with Black-Blue (ÖVP-FPÖ) at 45% each.

Because the BZÖ polls below the 4% barrier and 7% are voting for other parties, this is significant: Austria has never elected a left-wing parliamentary majority in the last 30 years.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

When will Stronach's new party get a name?

[Tender Branson]

When will Stronach's new party get a name?

At the end of September, when it will be officially launched.

Names mentioned include "Team Stronach" or "Team Stronach for Austria".

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING NEWS: Stronach breaks 10% for the first time in a poll

New "Gallup" poll for "Ö24":

28% SPÖ
21% ÖVP
20% FPÖ
14% Greens
10% Stronach
  3% BZÖ
  4% Others (incl. Pirates, KPÖ, CPÖ, LIF and others)

Which means 54% for Right-winger-parties and 42% for Left-winger-parties.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/SPOe-klar-vor-OeVP-und-FPOe/77216866

[Tender Branson]

Here's a good summary on the Stronach Party (important parts in bold):

Billionaire car boss joins Austrian political race

A new headline grabber has emerged on the Austrian political stage. He’s Frank Stronach, an 80-year-old auto parts magnate who’s launched a new party that seeks control of the government – and an end to the euro.

Frank Stronach was born not far from Graz, the location of the Austrian production arm of Magna International, a company Stronach formed in Canada after emigrating as a young man.

Stronach made millions in Canada in the auto parts industry, only to return in the 1980s to Austria where he made many more millions.

But as new cars continue to roll off production lines at Magna Steyr in Graz, and parts are assembled at factories belonging to Magna International in 26 countries around the globe, Stronach is now concentrating his efforts on the upcoming general election in Austria.

'Political plus'

At a recent campaign outing, Stronach told journalists that his party wanted to win at least 20 percent of the vote at the 2013 election, and he wanted to become Austria's next chancellor. The latest poll estimates he could receive as much as eight percent of the vote.

Stronach pitches himself as an economic liberal who appeals to the working class. Political analyst Thomas Hofer from h&p consulting says his success in business is a political plus, one that evokes the wave Mitt Romney is attempting to ride in the United States presidential race at the moment.

“Besides [Stronach's] many disadvantages, he has the important advantage of having been successful in the economic world. He has also managed to create jobs in Austria.”

Along with his investments in the auto industry, Stronach has built a major horse racing center in Austria and bought a top-notch soccer team. Most people know his name here in Austria, but there's a lot left to discover.

“The first question he will have to square with the people concerns where his taxes go, if he pays them at all. It is very unlikely that Austrian voters will support somebody who doesn't pay taxes here, and I think when the negative campaigning starts he will have a difficult time.”

Away with the 'monstrosity'

In a recent interview on Austrian state television, Stronach refused to let his interviewer ask a question. The question pertained to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the fund envisaged to help prevent a recurrence of the eurozone crisis, which Stronach adamantly referred to as the EDM, or “European Debt Machine.” [The German word for debt is Schulden. Editor's note.]

Among the billionaire's economic policies are a return to the shilling, Austria's currency before the euro, which Stronach has referred to as a "downright monstrosity." He is also campaigning for a flat tax rate of 20 percent.

“For us it's crystal clear that wealth grows with competition," Katharin Nachbaur, head of the Frank Stronach Institute, told DW. "Whenever competition is crushed, then the prosperity of the people suffers. And that's what we're facing in Europe as a result of the common currency.”

So can an 80-year-old who lives around half of the year in Canada really shake-up Austria's political establishment? Thomas Hofer says the governing coalition parties, the Social Democrats and People's Party, have little to fear. But Stronach is likely to take voters from the Freedom Party and another small right wing party, the Alliance for Austria's Future.

It's rumored that Stronach is prepared to put up 25 million euros of his own money for election campaigning. That would be more than all of the other parties could raise together. The official launch of the still nameless party is scheduled for September.

http://www.dw.de/dw/article/0,,16203394,00.html

[後援会]

Ending the Euro? And the coming structural transfer of wealth from the North to the South? Business experience?

This guy literally sounds like the perfect candidate ever, as long as he's not like a xenophobe or something.

[Tender Branson]

Ending the Euro? And the coming structural transfer of wealth from the North to the South? Business experience?

This guy literally sounds like the perfect candidate ever, as long as he's not like a xenophobe or something.

He's not a xenophobe, he actually supports immigration of skilled workers to Austria to help the economy grow (which of course is also supported by the SPÖ, ÖVP and the Greens). The FPÖ and BZÖ people are the xenophobes.

[後援会]

Ending the Euro? And the coming structural transfer of wealth from the North to the South? Business experience?

This guy literally sounds like the perfect candidate ever, as long as he's not like a xenophobe or something.

He's not a xenophobe, he actually supports immigration of skilled workers to Austria to help the economy grow (which of course is also supported by the SPÖ, ÖVP and the Greens). The FPÖ and BZÖ people are the xenophobes.

Oh. So this guy actually is perfect then.

[Tender Branson]

Ending the Euro? And the coming structural transfer of wealth from the North to the South? Business experience?

This guy literally sounds like the perfect candidate ever, as long as he's not like a xenophobe or something.

He's not a xenophobe, he actually supports immigration of skilled workers to Austria to help the economy grow (which of course is also supported by the SPÖ, ÖVP and the Greens). The FPÖ and BZÖ people are the xenophobes.

Oh. So this guy actually is perfect then.

Not really.

Several factors are negative about him:

* He's old (already over 80, which means he could die in the next years, which is similar to McCain's age problem. Why would people vote for a Chancellor candidate if he is already 80+ ?)

* He mostly lives in Canada and pays his taxes there, but for the most part he pays his taxes in Switzerland and only a "small" share in taxes in Austria. As the article says, Austrians have a problem with people who pay their taxes elsewhere and want to run for office here and tell us what to do with our tax system and how middl-class people's taxes should be reformed.

* BZÖ-boss Bucher says that Stronach wanted to pay him 500.000€ to join his party as a front-runner candidate, basically alledging that Stronach wanted to buy him. Stronach confirmed that he offered the 500.000€ to Bucher, but in January of this year and only to help the BZÖ election campaign. Stronach back then hadn't decided to launch his own party. But still, there's that smell that Stronach could easily buy people for his party, especially from the weak BZÖ, whose MP's would be unemployed after the next election. The threshold for parliament is 4% and the BZÖ is just at 3% right now and it won't get better.

* Stronach is seen as a neo-liberal who wants to secretly destroy unions and weaken the protection of the workers. Austrians are strongly in favor of the unions and the Sozialpartnerschaft (social partnership) which in a historic tradtion is responsible for such good things as the bargaining of minimum wages, restricted opening hours, maternity leave, social benefits, housing benefits, commuter benefits, need-oriented basic income etc. etc.

* And some more stuff I cannot remember right now ...

[後援会]

So he's a bad person because he makes money? I see nothing that would actually impact his ability to govern. Just personal qualities people don't like.

[Tender Branson]

I see nothing that would actually impact his ability to govern.

There is a problem with him governing:

As I've said before, he mostly pays his taxes ABROAD (primarily in the Swiss canton of Zug where he only pays a 10% tax on his income) and wants to run for office HERE.

He cannot do this.

If he wants to run for office he has to pay ALL of his taxes here. Which wouldn't be much of a problem, because Austria currently has one of the lowest wealth taxes in Europe. And because Stronach has already made almost all of his 1.7 Bio € in the past he would only have to pay a higher tax on his current annual earnings of about 20 Mio. €.

But the bigger problem is this: Stronach would have to permanently live in Austria to govern. It is virtually impossible to have a Chancellor of Austria or a parliamentary member who jets in from Canada with his airplane once in a while for a parliamentary session or for Chancellor work ... Not a lot of people would like that.