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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Austrian Presidential Election ?
Heinz Fischer (Incumbent-SP/IND)   -41 (56.9%)
Barbara Rosenkranz (FP)   -25 (34.7%)
Other candidate (please post)   -2 (2.8%)
Invalid   -4 (5.6%)
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Total Voters: 71

Author Topic: The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...  (Read 105560 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #25 on: January 18, 2010, 08:47:01 am »
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New poll by Market for Standard:

VP: 30%
SP: 29%
FP: 23%
Greens: 13%
BZ: 4%
Others: 1%
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« Reply #26 on: January 20, 2010, 02:24:50 pm »
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OGM Carinthia federal elections poll:

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« Reply #27 on: January 20, 2010, 06:48:13 pm »
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Amazing!
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The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
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« Reply #28 on: January 21, 2010, 01:41:44 am »
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The date of the Burgenland state elections will probably be changed to May 30, instead of May 2.

The federal VP helped out their state party yesterday in blocking the dissolvement of the Burgenland parliament. Therefore it is most likely on May 30 now.

They fear that the March 21 SP-proposed referendum in Southern Burgenland about the construction of an asylum centre and the Presidential election on April 25 with a big Fischer (SP) victory might push the Burgenland SP to over 50%.

SP-governor Niessl has said he`ll fight the decision and wants to check now if the VP move was unconstitutional. But I think it doesn't matter when the vote takes place: The VP will lose badly.
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« Reply #29 on: January 24, 2010, 06:10:31 am »
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New Upper Austria poll by Spectra (700 voters questioned) for the ON and it shows the VP dominating:

VP: 49-51% (compared with 2009 state elections: +3)
SP: 21-23% (-3)
FP: 13-15% (-1)
Greens: 10-12% (+2)
Others: 2-4% (-1)

And if federal elections were to be held in Upper Austria right now:

VP: 33-35% (compared with 2008 federal elections: +7)
SP: 30-32% (nc)
FP: 14-16% (-4)
Greens: 10-12% (+1)
BZ: 4-6% (-4)
Others: 3-5% (nc)

http://www.nachrichten.at/storage/pic/artikelbilder/politik/193455_3_oongrafik_barometer.jpg

http://www.nachrichten.at/storage/pic/artikelbilder/politik/193453_1_oongrafik_Sonntagsfrage.jpg

The current VP-Green government in Upper Austria has a 55-35 approval rating.

Gov. Josef Phringer (VP) has a 80-12 approval rating, and his Green Vice-Governor Rudi Anschober a 55-26 approval rating.

Voters in Upper Austria also say that the VP is the most favorable party:

VP: 61% have a favorable opinion, 28% unfavorable
SP: 42% have a favorable opinion, 47% unfavorable
Greens: 39% have a favorable opinion, 46% unfavorable
FP: 23% have a favorable opinion, 65% unfavorable

http://www.nachrichten.at/storage/scl/artikelbilder/politik/193454_m0t1w600h450q80v7824.jpg
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« Reply #30 on: January 24, 2010, 06:26:48 am »
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New federal Profil/Karmasin Motivforschung poll:

VP: 32%
SP: 31%
FP/FPK: 22%
Grne: 12%%
BZ: 1%

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Prll (VP): 29%
Faymann (SP): 21%
Glawischnig (Greens): 7%
Strache (FP): 5%
None of the above: 25%
Undecided: 13%

New Styria state elections poll by IMAS for the Kronen Zeitung:

SP: 40% (-2)
VP: 40% (+1)
FP: 7% (+2)
KP: 5% (-1)
Greens: 5% (nc)
BZ: 2% (nc)
Others: 1% (nc)

Direct vote for Governor:

Voves (SP): 35%
Schtzenhfer (VP): 21%

Gov. Voves has the job approval of about 2/3 of the voters, according to the article.

http://www.krone.at/krone/S153/object_id__181828/hxcms/

Good, there seems to be some political fallout for the FP/BZ because of Carinthia ... Wink
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« Reply #31 on: January 27, 2010, 02:06:20 pm »
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Latest GMK Burgenland state elections poll:

SP: 48% (-4)
VP: 30% (-6)
FP: 15% (+9)
Greens: 6% (+1)
BZ: 1% (+1)
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« Reply #32 on: January 28, 2010, 05:07:15 am »
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BZ: 1% (+1)

lol
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« Reply #33 on: January 29, 2010, 01:48:18 am »
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Nothing really new on the Presidential elections, except that President Heinz Fischer (SP) has spoken out yesterday in favor of full marriage rights for gay couples incl. adoptions.

Civil Unions were signed into Austrian law, effective by Jan. 1, 2010
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« Reply #34 on: January 30, 2010, 01:45:41 am »
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Here are 2 maps showing the results of the 2005 Styria town council elections and state elections:



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Tender Branson
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« Reply #35 on: January 30, 2010, 02:45:53 am »
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Unemployment rate in December 2009 by Austrian labor counties (self-made graphic):



Light blue: below 50% of the national rate (< 4.3%)
Middle blue: between 50-75% of the national rate (4.3%-6.4)
Dark blue: between 75% and the national rate (6.4%-8.6%)

Yellow: between national rate and 125% of it (8.6%-10.7%)
Orange: between 125-150% of the national rate (10.7%-12.9%)
Dark orange: more than 150% of the national rate (> 12.9%)

Austrian national average: 8.6%
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« Reply #36 on: January 31, 2010, 03:09:12 am »
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First Carinthia poll by Gallup/24 following yesterday's re-launch of the Carinthia-BZ, where Josef Bucher was elected chairman with 99.6% of the delegates:

SP: 24-26%
BZ (Bucher/Petzner): 22-24%
FPK (Scheuch/Drfler): 18-20%
VP: 14-16%
FP (Jannach): 7-9%
Greens: 7-9%

Gov. Drfler (FPK) approval rating:

34% Approve
63% Disapprove

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Sensation-BZOe-in-Kaernten-vor-FPK-0630381.ece

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Bucher-mit-996-Prozent-Landesparteichef-0629985.ece

Ive already said that the BZ still has a big potential in Carinthia, but that they are already ahead of the FPK is astonishing ...

The Far-Right now has 50% in this state, which is 1% more than in the 2009 state elections.
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« Reply #37 on: February 01, 2010, 01:43:43 am »
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So Carinthia now has three far-right parties bitching at each other. Unique...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #38 on: February 02, 2010, 05:33:04 am »
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New unemployment numbers are out for January:

323.651 unemployed persons (+22.122 compared with Jan. 2009, +7.3%)

National unemployment rate (excl. self-employed): 8.9%

This is the lowest increase of unemployed persons in about 2 years.

January 2010 unemployment rates by Austrian state:

Salzburg (yay !): 5.7%
Tyrol: 6.4%
Upper Austria: 6.9%
Vorarlberg: 7.4%
Vienna: 9.8%
Lower Austria: 9.9%
Styria: 10.1%
Burgenland: 12.7%
Carinthia (lol !): 13.0%

http://www.bmsk.gv.at/cms/site/attachments/1/4/3/CH0735/CMS1262602258150/arbeitsmarkt_vorab_oesterreich_201001.pdf

Eurostat/ILO unemployment rate (incl. self-employed, December 2009): 5.4% (2nd lowest in the EU)

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-29012010-AP/EN/3-29012010-AP-EN.PDF

In January, unemployment actually decreased by 2% in my county (Zell am See). It had the second lowest unemployment rate in Austria in December after Reutte.
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« Reply #39 on: February 03, 2010, 11:59:06 am »
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New Vienna State Elections poll by OGM for News (500 people questioned):

SP: 42% (-7)
FP: 20% (+5)
VP: 17% (-2)
Greens: 16% (+1)
BZ: 3% (+2)
Others: 2% (+1)

Direct vote for Mayor:

Michael Hupl (SP): 45%
H.C. Strache (FP): 12%

Preferred coalition:

SP-VP: 41%
SP-Greens: 22%
SP-FP: 16%

http://www.news.at/articles/1005/8/261041/der-kampf-wien-spoe-news-umfrage-fpoe

On Feb. 11-13, there will also be a referendum about 5 topics in the city, initiated by the city SP:

* On the employment of janitors
* On the introduction of a city-toll
* On the introduction of all-day-long schooling of children
* On the subway being operated on a 24/7/365 basis
* On the introduction of mandatory registration of "attack dogs"

According to a recent Gallup poll, Vienna voters are likely to back all measures except the city-toll by a wide margin (70-80%). The city-toll is opposed by 70% of voters.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Haeupl-verliert-seine-Mehrheit-0613195.ece
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« Reply #40 on: February 07, 2010, 04:28:03 am »
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According to a 24 article today, FP-leader Strache himself is "strongly considering" entering the Presidential race. He says in the interview that he could get more than 30% against President Fischer. But the FP will wait until March to declare their candidate, because if they do earlier, Vienna Mayor Michael Hupl could reschedule the Vienna state elections to just after the Presidential elections in April and if Strache loses to Fischer, he cannot be FP front-runner in Vienna anymore.

I`d like to see how much Strache could cut into the VP electorate, if they don`t run a candidate. I guess 40% of VP voters would stay at home, 30% would back Strache and 30% would back Fischer.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Strache-will-gegen-Fischer-antreten-0636057.ece

New 24/Gallup poll:

VP: 32%
SP: 30%
FP: 21%
Greens: 12%
BZ: 3%
Others: 2%

New Upper Austria IMAS poll:

VP: 48%
SP: 23%
FP: 19%
Greens: 8%
Others: 2%
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« Reply #41 on: February 12, 2010, 02:06:33 am »
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It is more and more likely that Barbara Rosenkranz will be the FP-candidate for president. On February 22 the FP will most likely decide on their candidate, but Rosenkranz is already shooting pictures for campaign posters and they have already reserved the site www.barbararosenkranz.at for their campaign.

In other news, a FP-candidate running for the Bludenz (Vorarlberg) city council has been thrown out of the FP after talking about euthanizing Muslims, Islam being a degenerated, vile religion and saying that "being called a Nazi by these Muslims is a honor to him".

The Greens are most likely to decide on a presidential candidate on February 19 (they lean against running a candidate) and the VP even later (they also lean against a candidate and let the playing field to the FP).

http://austrianindependent.com/news/Politics/2010-02-02/725/Greens_to_decide_on_presidential_candidate_this_month
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« Reply #42 on: February 12, 2010, 12:20:50 pm »
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If the FP runs a candidate doesn't the VP have to do the same just to make sure that they are the "leading force" on the right?
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« Reply #43 on: February 13, 2010, 01:28:09 am »
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If the FP runs a candidate doesn't the VP have to do the same just to make sure that they are the "leading force" on the right?

Sure, normally they would have to run a candidate, but I think they are speculating that President Fischer will win in a landslide and that the FP is damaged enough by the Carinthia adventure of integrating the FPK a few weeks earlier.

For example there`s a new OGM trust index of Austrian politicians out and it shows FP-leader Strache`s trust rating down to 23%, with 69% of Austrians having no trust in Strache. That`s a big drop compared with last years rating.

Therefore they could argue that if Rosenkranz gets 20-30% in the Presidential Election, it would still be less than the Far-Right got in the 2008 parliamentary elections and therefore they are still the leading party on the right, because they are polling between 30-35% right now. The trust index also shows VP Vice-Chancellor Prll having the second highest trust rating (59-35) after President Fischer (73-21), while SP Chancellor Faymann is now in negative territory for the first time (45-46).

I think the opinions in the top VP circles are more leaning toward winning back the governorship in Styria rather than waging a strong Presidential campaign.

http://www.ogm.at/pdfs/BundespolitikerInnen_Februar10.pdf
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« Reply #44 on: February 13, 2010, 02:56:15 am »
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In other news, a FP-candidate running for the Bludenz (Vorarlberg) city council has been thrown out of the FP after talking about euthanizing Muslims, Islam being a degenerated, vile religion and saying that "being called a Nazi by these Muslims is a honor to him".

This sort of thing is commonplace, isn't it?
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The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
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« Reply #45 on: February 14, 2010, 01:58:22 am »
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In other news, a FP-candidate running for the Bludenz (Vorarlberg) city council has been thrown out of the FP after talking about euthanizing Muslims, Islam being a degenerated, vile religion and saying that "being called a Nazi by these Muslims is a honor to him".

This sort of thing is commonplace, isn't it?

No, this is more the exception than the rule, even within the FP.

Also, new federal Gallup/24 poll:

VP: 32%
SP: 31%
FP: 21%
Greens: 12%
BZ: 3%
Others: 1%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #46 on: February 14, 2010, 02:09:47 am »
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On Feb. 11-13, there will also be a referendum about 5 topics in the city, initiated by the city SP:

* On the employment of janitors
* On the introduction of a city-toll
* On the introduction of all-day-long schooling of children
* On the subway being operated on a 24/7/365 basis
* On the introduction of mandatory registration of "attack dogs"

According to a recent Gallup poll, Vienna voters are likely to back all measures except the city-toll by a wide margin (70-80%). The city-toll is opposed by 70% of voters.



Mostly in line with the polls, except the 24/7/365 subway traffic, which was opposed by 54% of the voters.
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« Reply #47 on: February 17, 2010, 10:38:57 am »
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Mostly in line with the polls, except the 24/7/365 subway traffic, which was opposed by 54% of the voters.

Correction: With almost all votes counted (except the postal votes), Vienna voters are now backing the 24/7/365 subway traffic with 54% of the vote.

.....

A new poll by the Medical University of Graz finds that 78% of Austrians support passive euthanasia of terminally ill patients, 13% are opposed and 9% undecided.

Active euthanasia is supported by 62% of Austrians, with 30% opposed and 8% undecided.

1000 Austrians aged 16+ were questioned by the Univ. of Graz Institute of Social Medicine and Epidemiology.

.....

It seems like Stanley Greenberg is doing polls for the Vienna SP (?!):

The Vienna SP commissioned a poll of young voters between 16 and 29 and the results are analysed by Stanley Greenberg.

16-19 year old Vienna voters support: 26% SP, 21% Greens, FP 12%

20-29 year old Vienna voters support: 32% SP, 17% Greens, FP 12%

http://www.news.at/articles/1007/11/262213/jungwaehler-spoe-fpoe-16-19-jaehrige-rot
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« Reply #48 on: February 17, 2010, 11:01:00 am »
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If this internal SP poll of young voters is true, which I doubt, it`s actually bad news for the SP.

The SORA Exit Poll of the 2005 Vienna State elections showed 16-19 year olds voting for:

46% SP
26% Greens
16% VP
11% FP

I guess the FP now has a far bigger share than in 2005, when the Black-Blue government was still in office.
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« Reply #49 on: February 19, 2010, 02:07:27 pm »
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It seems that the Greens are not only gaining in German polls. New Standard/Market poll:

VP: 30% (+4)
SP: 28% (-1)
FP: 23% (+5)
Greens: 14% (+4)
BZ: 4% (-7)
Others: 1% (-5)
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