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| | |-+  The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Austrian Presidential Election ?
Heinz Fischer (Incumbent-SP/IND)   -41 (56.9%)
Barbara Rosenkranz (FP)   -25 (34.7%)
Other candidate (please post)   -2 (2.8%)
Invalid   -4 (5.6%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 71

Author Topic: The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...  (Read 113027 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #75 on: March 08, 2010, 02:10:08 am »
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New IMAS/Kronen Zeitung poll for next Sunday`s Styria town council elections:

VP: 43%
SP: 40%
FP: 7%
Greens: 3%
Others: 7%

And the same poll for the Styria state elections in the fall:

VP: 39%
SP: 39%
Greens: 9%
FP: 7%
KP: 5%
BZ: 2%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #76 on: March 08, 2010, 08:35:55 am »
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At a press conference today and in presence of a notary, Rosenkranz repeated in a statutory  declaration (which she then signed) that she condemned in firm conviction the crimes of National Socialism and that she decidedly dissociates herself from the Nazi ideology. She also said that she doesn't want to abolish the Austrian Verbotsgesetz and that she never called it into question.

Officials from the other parties though called her statement worthless and that she remains unelectable. Josef Bucher from the BZ called on the VP to nominate an independent bourgeois/center-right candidate, because Fischer is a far-left Socialist and Rosenkranz a weirdo Right-winger.

Let`s see what the next polls are saying: I guess Fischer will drop to about 60%, Rosenkranz will have about 20% and the rest undecided.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #77 on: March 09, 2010, 10:09:06 am »
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The FP isnt coming out of the negative headlines it seems:

Today, a FP-MP sent a letter to the Catholic Vienna Archbishop Schnborn and heavily attacked him from calling Rosenkranz unelectable for President. He said that Schnborn shouldn`t meddle with politics because of the separation of church and state and should rather focus on the current problems within the Catholic church.

Well, this letter by the FP-MP certainly won`t drive the large masses of Catholic-VP-voting people into the Rosenkranz camp ... Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #78 on: March 10, 2010, 10:11:40 am »
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The pollster OGM has asked the following for "News":

"Do you think that the recent comments from Rosenkranz about distancing herself from the Nazi crimes and the keeping of the Verbotsgesetz are trustworthy ?"

Not trustworthy: 66%
Trustworthy: 19%

FP-voters:

Not trustworthy: 41%
Trustworthy: 38%

VP-voters:

Not trustworthy: 75%
Trustworthy: 12%

http://www.news.at/articles/1010/13/264010/kein-vertrauen-barbara-rosenkranz-66-prozent-sie-nicht
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #79 on: March 12, 2010, 09:19:41 am »
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No new polls out, except a new trust index by OGM:

President Heinz Fischer: 76% trust, 18% no trust
Barbara Rosenkranz: 13% trust, 61% no trust

http://www.ogm.at/pdfs/BP-Kandidaten_Maerz10.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #80 on: March 12, 2010, 12:26:53 pm »
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Amusing side fact that has nothing to do with the Presidency:

Hans-Peter Martin, Independent Austrian Member of the EU Parliament was invited to an ATV debate about the influence of the Kronen Zeitung in Austria`s politics. He said that he was appalled that the Kronen Zeitung backed Rosenkranz for President.

When a "Standard" journalist just next to Martin was interviewed right after the show and said that Martin was pissed that the Kronen Zeitung was backing Rosenkranz for President and not Martin for President, he shouted into the camera: " F**k You !"

Wink

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiwhUpvoeIY
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« Reply #81 on: March 12, 2010, 06:56:43 pm »
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Doesn't the Kronen Zeitung own Martin?
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The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
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« Reply #82 on: March 13, 2010, 01:21:11 am »
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Doesn't the Kronen Zeitung own Martin?

Yeah, during the 2006 parliamentary elections and the 2009 EU elections he frequently wrote editorials in the "Kronen Zeitung", but he has not appeared there now for several months.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #83 on: March 13, 2010, 02:10:49 am »
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Whoa, Le Pen might actually have a race with Rosenkranz !

New Gallup/24 poll (800 Austrians aged 16+ questioned this week):

Fischer: 84% (+5)
Rosenkranz: 16% (-5)

"Do you think that Rosenkranz shares Nazi-ideology ?"

63% Yes
20% No

Under-30 year olds: 76%
Seniors: 72%
FP-voters: 36%

"For you personally, is Rosenkranz electable?"

20% Yes
72% No

VP-voters: 18% Yes
FP-voters: 64% Yes, 29% No

...

That is pretty obvious now, my parents (also FP-voters) will NOT vote for Rosenkranz (my dad even says Fischer has done a good job (Rosenkranz is too radical for them) and many young (Strache)-voters will also not back her. I guess my parents will just stay at home this time and sit this out and I will go and vote for Fischer.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Rosenkranz-faellt-unter-20--Marke-0663956.ece
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« Reply #84 on: March 13, 2010, 03:03:39 am »
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New Profil/Karmasin federal poll:

SP: 33%
VP: 32%
FP: 20%
Greens: 11%
BZ: 2%
Others: 2%

This is the first time since about 1 year that the Social Democrats have overtaken the Conservatives. Probably has to do with the Chancellor Faymann proposed bank-tax and with the dilettantish behaviour of Interior Minister Maria Fekter of the VP who wanted to plant an asylum centre into the state of Burgenland just prior to state elections where the SP is now heavily favored (or always has been).

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Josef Prll (VP): 27%
Werner Faymann (SP): 25%
Heinz-Christian Strache (FP): 8%
Eva Glawischnig (Greens): 7%

"Do you think that the presidential candidacy of Barbara Rosenkranz (FP) will hurt FP-leader Strache in the October Vienna state elections ?"

37% Yes
14% No
25% Will have no impact
24% Undecided

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100313_OTS0008/profil-umfrage-spoe-ueberholt-oevp-proell-weiterhin-vor-faymann/channel/medien

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100313_OTS0011/profil-mehrheit-glaubt-rosenkranz-kandidatur-schade-fpoe-chef-strache
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« Reply #85 on: March 13, 2010, 03:34:04 am »
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It looks like Rosenkranz attended a 1991 Neo-Nazi meeting in France:

Someone has apparently found her in a Documentary ("Wahrheit macht Frei") about Neonazis, listening and laughing to Holocaust-denier David Irving's speeches about the existence of gas chambers.

The article says that the clip is now forensicly examined to prove its really her.

If true and pressured about it, hopefully this will be the end of her campaign.

http://de.indymedia.org/2010/03/275586.shtml

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypXBz61I6_4
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #86 on: March 13, 2010, 04:06:07 am »
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The latest Gallup/24 poll is similar to the Karmasin/Profil poll:

SP: 32% (+2)
VP: 32% (-1)
FP: 20% (-2)
Greens: 12% (+1)
BZ: 2% (nc)
Others: 2% (nc)

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Josef Prll (VP): 38% (-1)
Werner Faymann (SP): 36% (+1)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100313_OTS0018/oesterreich-spoe-und-oevp-in-umfrage-kopf-an-kopf
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« Reply #87 on: March 14, 2010, 01:45:04 am »
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Today, town-council and mayoral elections will be held in Lower Austria, Tyrol and Vorarlberg.

The 2004/2005 elections in these states were very favorable to the VP, they got about 55% of all mandates in Lower Austria and 63% in Tyrol. Basically 70-90% of all mayors are from the VP.

Here`s a list of how many people are eligible to vote (all Austrian citizens aged 16+ are allowed to vote and also all EU-citizens with main residence in one of the states):

Lower Austria: 1.458.779
Tyrol: 462.821
Vorarlberg: 275.905

Turnout should be around 75% in Lower Austria and Tyrol and 70% in Vorarlberg.

Just a few days ago, the SPVP government announced that it would raise taxes to balance the 4% budget-deficit by 2013. It will be interesting to see if SPVP will take a hit or not for these proposals.
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« Reply #88 on: March 14, 2010, 10:25:31 am »
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Vorarlberg is almost fully counted and the VP is still dominating there with slight increases. Also, the FP is gaining some ground compared with 2005. The mainly bad elections for the FP were the mayor of Lustenau, a city which had only FP mayors since 1960. This time it was won by the VP guy. They also lost the mayor of Mittelberg to the VP. The FP-candidate there crashed from 56% to 31%.

In Tyrol, the FP also gained some ground and won a mayoral election in East Tyrol. Another strange thing happened in the city of Sellrain, where the SP candidate ran against his son, who ran on an independent list. Both of them lost and the winner was the incumbent VP mayor ... Tongue

On the other hand, Tyrol and Vorarlberg are not important.

The really important state today is only Lower Austria, the home state of Barbara Rosenkranz who is FP-leader there and top candidate for the FP there.

The polls there close in 15 minutes and then we can see how the FP does compared with 2005.
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« Reply #89 on: March 14, 2010, 11:26:30 am »
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First trends from Lower Austria:

VP: Strong gains
SP: Strong losses
FP: moderate gains
Greens: more or less like 2005
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« Reply #90 on: March 14, 2010, 11:59:06 am »
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Harmannsdorf (hometown of Barbara Rosenkranz):

VP: 55.4% (-5.1%)
SP: 31.2% (-1.6%)
FP: 13.4% (+6.7%)
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« Reply #91 on: March 14, 2010, 12:37:33 pm »
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The newspapers are already up with headlines like "SP losing stretch continues" and so on.

Well, they are correct.

The SP has lost strongly with the bigger cities (10.000 people+) now coming in.

In Wr. Neustadt, where Fezzy is studying, they lost about 15% and the FP is gaining strongly in cities like Bad Vslau, where a mosque was recently opened.

The VP and FP in general had a good day in all 3 states, the SP has also terrible losses in Tyrol and Vorarlberg, where they now only have 1 (!!!) mayor in 98 cities.

Don`t know how the media will spin this on President Fischer`s reelection chances, but not good news for him and for the SP.
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« Reply #92 on: March 14, 2010, 03:40:07 pm »
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If the last time these seats were contested was 2005 (though I might be misreading), then SP losses can't be viewed as at all surprising as they were in opposition then and lead the government now.
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« Reply #93 on: March 15, 2010, 01:06:53 am »
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If the last time these seats were contested was 2005 (though I might be misreading), then SP losses can't be viewed as at all surprising as they were in opposition then and lead the government now.

Well, on the other hand all 3 states are VP strongholds and in all 3 of them the VP had landslide victories at more than 50% in the last state elections. Municipial elections are more influenced by the state governments than the federal government, but even more so they are completely candidate based. And if the VP had 70-90% of mayors in the previous elections and (historically) people are satisfied with their mayors, then it`s very uncommon that the SP can improve their ground. The results of yesterday are just a continuation of the Lower Austrian state elections 2 years ago and are very similar to them.

BTW, here`s the final result of Lower Austria:



Turnout was 72% (+0.5%)

Also, strong losses for the SP in Tyrol and Vorarlberg, where turnout was 74% and 63%.

Here`s the final result of Vorarlberg:

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« Reply #94 on: March 17, 2010, 03:18:31 pm »
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Latest OGM/News poll:

Fischer: 81% (-3)
Rosenkranz: 19% (+3)

VP Voters: Fischer 81%, Rosenkranz 19%
Young voters (16-29): Fischer 87%, Rosenkranz 13%

Projected turnout: 54% (would be the lowest ever, minus 18% compared with 2004)
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« Reply #95 on: March 17, 2010, 04:49:46 pm »
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Seems like we are getting a 3rd candidate for President:

Rudolf Gehring, head of the Fundie CP (Christian Party of Austria), has already more than 4000 of the 6000 signatures that are needed to be on the April 25 ballot. He might turn out to be a protest candidate, because if VP voters really go to the polls and see the names Fischer (liberal Socialist) and Rosenkranz (hard-core rightwinger/Nazi) on the ballot and then a guy from the Christian Party, then they might vote for him instead of voting blank. I could see him getting 5-10%.

Unsurprisingly, Fischer and Rosenkranz have already finished their collecting of signatures but mentioned no total number so far. In the 3 weeks, Fischer collected about 40.000 of them before the 2004 elections.
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« Reply #96 on: March 19, 2010, 02:24:44 pm »
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New general polls about Austria (& Germany) and the Church (scandals):

20% of Austrians consider leaving the Catholic Church right now, because of the recent sex scandals within the Catholic church throughout Europe.

According to a new IMAS poll, 83% of Austrians consider themselves Christian (78% Catholics, 5% Protestants) and 17% have either another faith (6% Islam) or no faith.

By 41-34, Austrians also say that the 10 Commandments are a strict guideline of everyday life.

83% of Austrians and 87% of Germans (Infratest dimap) also want to abolish the Celibate.
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« Reply #97 on: March 20, 2010, 02:15:08 pm »
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Interesting turn of events recently:

The Austrian public TV broadcaster ORF apparently paid 2 skinheads to attend a FP-campaign event in Wiener Neustadt where FP leader Strache was giving autographs and when they were next to Strache they should shout: "Sieg Heil !" on camera.

Strache says he has a private video of the incident where they actually say it and says the ORF has manipulated their video material so that the skinheads said something else. He said the FP will release their video soon, the ORF has already released their video.

The police is now investigating the events. If the ORF was really trying to scandalize Strache, this would be huge news and a huge scandal for the ORF ...

The last thing we need right now is a 1986 redux, in which people think the FP is the victim of the leftist media and support Rosenkranz just because of these attacks (the "more-than-ever-campaign").
« Last Edit: March 20, 2010, 02:31:29 pm by Tender Branson »Logged
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« Reply #98 on: March 21, 2010, 01:38:45 am »
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Today, there are town council and mayoral elections in the state of Styria, which will hold state elections later in the fall. 800.000 people are eligible to vote (in all cities, except the capital Graz). Here`s a map of the 2005 Styria town council elections:



In 2005, the SP gained strongly and was basically tied with the VP, which served as an early indicator of the following VP`s defeat in the 2005 state elections.

This time it is expected that the SP will lose and that the VP and the FP will gain.

Today, there`s also a referendum in 3 counties in Southern Burgenland on the construction of an asylum center. I think that 60-80% of voters will vote AGAINST the construction. The town in which the VP-proposed center should be built, has already voted a few weeks ago: 92% were against the construction.
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« Reply #99 on: March 21, 2010, 08:51:36 am »
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Early reports indicate heavy losses for the SP in many places (-5 to -15%), in others the SP fell by almost 30% and the VP is gaining strongly. The FP remains relatively low in the early reports. Official numbers will be released in about 1 hour when the polls in all cities are closed.

Turnout should remain high due to good weather. Something like 80%.
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