The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

Quite a good result for the SPÖ and the FPÖ.

Of course the SPÖ still didn´t gain percentage-wise in any election since 2005 (the last one was the Vienna state election in 2005 where the SPÖ gained percentage-wise), but the loss of Styria would have meant trouble for Austrian chancellor Faymann too (-> leadership debate).

The FPÖ on the other hand had problems (?!) with their Anti-Minaret game, but it seems to have mobilized supporters for them.

Because the SPÖ won´t enter a coalition with the FPÖ (Faymann's head would roll if Voves forms a SPÖ-FPÖ government), the most likely option is now another Grand-Coalition of SPÖVP - either with current ÖVP boss Schützenhöfer, or Schützenhöfer will step down and another one takes over the ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

An update, with most of the postal votes counted (they have to come in until Sunday):

38.3%  (-3.3) SPÖ
37.2%  (-1.5) ÖVP
10.7% (+6.1) FPÖ
  5.5% (+0.7) Greens
  4.4%  (-2.0) KPÖ
  3.0% (+1.3) BZÖ
  0.7% (+0.7) CPÖ
  0.2% (+0.2) PUMA

The SPÖ is now having talks with both ÖVP and FPÖ about a possible government.

...

2 new Vienna state election polls:

Gallup/Ö24:

46% SPÖ
21% FPÖ
17% ÖVP
12% Greens
  4% Others (BZÖ, KPÖ)

IMAS/Kronen Zeitung:

[Tender Branson]

New federal poll by Gallup for Ö24:



There´s also a new OGM poll about a possible SPÖ-FPÖ coalition in Styria:



41% of Austrian voters find a SPÖ-FPÖ coalition acceptable, 48% find it not acceptable.

52% of SPÖ voters find it not acceptable, 38% find it acceptable and so on.

It also asks which coalition voters want in Styria:

37% SPÖ/ÖVP
30% SPÖ/FPÖ
10% SPÖ/ÖVP/FPÖ
23% Don´t know

[Tender Branson]

The county of Liezen is now fully counted and the SPÖ beats the ÖVP by 5 votes or 40.28% to 40.27% !

With most of the postal votes counted, the ÖVP has re-conquered the county of Liezen and is now 24 votes ahead (ÖVP 40.19%, SPÖ 40.14%)

This is important for map-making, because Liezen is the biggest county of Austria ...

[Tender Branson]

New unemployment numbers out for September:

214.167 people unemployed (-8.7% compared with September 2009)

National unemployment rate: 5.9% (-0.5% compared with September 2009)

Unemployment rates by state:

3.7% Upper Austria
3.8% Salzburg
4.9% Tyrol
5.5% Styria
5.7% Burgenland
6.0% Vorarlberg
6.0% Lower Austria
6.9% Carinthia
8.3% Vienna

Job Creation in September: +45.000 compared with September 2009

EUROSTAT unemployment rate: 4.3% (-0.9% compared with 2009, lowest in the EU)

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-01102010-AP/EN/3-01102010-AP-EN.PDF



If you want jobs, come to Salzburg ...

There are 3.200 jobs available and 9.500 unemployed (a rate of 1 to 3).

In Vienna for example, there are only 7.000 jobs and 72.000 unemployed (a rate of 1 to 10).

http://www.bmask.gv.at/cms/site/attachments/0/2/1/CH0735/CMS1283328367478/arbeitsmarkt_vorab_oesterreich_201009.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Finance Minister Josef Pröll (ÖVP) announced today, 1 week before the important Vienna state elections, that the Austrian tax revenues have turned out much better than anticipated.

In the first 8 months of the year, 41.34 Bio. € of taxes have been collected, which is 5% more than last year and that would be on track to be the best tax revenues ever - thx to the growing economy that is likely to grow 2% this and next year.

That also means that there will be 3 Bio. € more tax revenue this year than what was thought at the beginning of the year. The SPÖVP coalition proposed to cut the Austrian budget deficit of about 4% this year with a combination of across-the-board spending cuts, as well as increasing some taxes (bank tax, financial transactions tax, wealth tax, eco-tax).

Now, with the 3 Bio. tax surplus, they are likely to wait after the Vienna elections so that they will announce only spening cuts and probably will increase no taxes. But we´ll see.

It also means that the budget deficit won´t be 4% this year, but more likely 3.5% and we could already see less than the 3% that is in the Maastricht agreement.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Steuer-Der-neue-Geldregen/3885328

[Tender Branson]

2 more Vienna polls:

Humaninstitut Klagenfurt

43%  (-6) SPÖ
22% (+7) FPÖ
17%  (-2) ÖVP
11%  (-4) Greens
  6% (+5) BZÖ
  1%  (nc) Others

Direct vote for Mayor:

38% Häupl (SPÖ)
21% Marek (ÖVP)
18% Strache (FPÖ)
12% Sonnleitner (BZÖ)
  7% Vassilakou (Greens)
  4% Undecided

http://www.ots.at/anhang/OTS_20101002_OTS0014.pdf

...

GMK for the Wiener Bezirkszeitung:

44%  (-5) SPÖ
22% (+7) FPÖ
17%  (-2) ÖVP
13%  (-2) Greens
  2% (+1) BZÖ
  2% (+1) KPÖ

http://archiv.print-gruppe.com/ausgabe.php?id=8059

[Tender Branson]

Vienna state elections debate hosted by ATV starting in 1 minute.

Live Stream here:

http://meinewahl.atv.at/live

Candidates:

Michael Häupl (SPÖ)
Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ)
Christine Marek (ÖVP)
Maria Vassilakou (Greens)

[Tender Branson]

Latest poll by Market for Standard:

47% SPÖ
22% FPÖ
17% ÖVP
12% Greens
  1% BZÖ
  1% KPÖ

http://derstandard.at/1285200210460/Umfrage-SPOe-zeigt-Schwaeche-FPOe-holt-auf

...

Looks like a repeat of the 1991 election:

48% SPÖ, 23% FPÖ, 18% ÖVP, 9% Greens, 2% Others

...

I think the Greens will do worse on Sunday than what is projected in the polls. 9-10% seems to be correct.

[Tender Branson]

Puls 4 debate for Vienna:

http://www.puls4.com/content/wien_wahl_2010/video/1161415

I like the intro ... !

[Tender Branson]

The final days of the Vienna campaign have begun and the FPÖ is gaining !

New Gallup poll for Ö24 (800 polled this week):

44-45%  (-4/5%) SPÖ
23-24% (+8/9%) FPÖ
16-17%  (-2/3%) ÖVP
12-13%  (-2/3%) Greens

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/wien-wahl/Buergermeister-Haeupl-hat-nur-noch-45-der-Stimmen/4167138

[Tender Branson]

Here are some facts about the Vienna state elections tomorrow (incl. results in the districts):

 

1.144.510 Austrian citizens aged 16+ will be eligible to vote. There will be 162.039 postal/absentee votes (14% of all eligible voters).

My prediction for Vienna tomorrow:

43.1%    (-6.0)  SPÖ
25.4% (+10.6)  FPÖ
16.3%    (-2.5)  ÖVP
10.4%    (-4.2)  Greens
  1.7%   (+0.5)  BZÖ
  1.3%   (+1.3)  LIF
  1.1%    (-0.4)  KPÖ
  0.7%   (+0.7)  Others

Turnout: ~60%

Anyone else wanna try a prediction ?

[Hash]

Where does the FPÖ do well again in Vienna?

[minionofmidas]

Where does the FPÖ do well again in Vienna?

Same as the SPÖ. The degree of correlation is actually hilarious.

[Tender Branson]

Where does the FPÖ do well again in Vienna?

2005 (2001) (1996) Vienna state elections FPÖ share by district:

01:   7.9% (18.9%) (22.4%)
02: 14.1% (20.3%) (29.7%)
03: 12.6% (19.4%) (26.0%)
04:   9.4% (17.5%) (22.8%)
05: 13.2% (20.2%) (28.1%)
06:   9.4% (16.7%) (22.5%)
07:   8.5% (15.9%) (22.2%)
08:   8.6% (16.6%) (21.7%)
09:   9.6% (17.0%) (23.3%)
10: 19.6% (22.8%) (31.1%)
11: 18.8% (21.7%) (31.6%)
12: 16.5% (21.4%) (29.4%)
13: 11.0% (18.3%) (21.7%)
14: 14.9% (20.1%) (27.8%)
15: 15.9% (21.5%) (31.9%)
16: 15.8% (20.9%) (30.3%)
17: 14.9% (21.2%) (29.0%)
18: 10.4% (17.8%) (23.1%)
19: 11.7% (18.6%) (23.2%)
20: 16.8% (22.6%) (31.5%)
21: 17.0% (20.5%) (29.5%)
22: 16.4% (20.2%) (29.8%)
23: 14.5% (19.5%) (26.9%)

Vienna-wide: 14.8% (20.2%) (27.9%)

2008 Austrian Parliament FPÖ share by district:

01:   8.2%
02: 18.5%
03: 15.7%
04: 11.4%
05: 16.4%
06: 11.5%
07:   9.8%
08:   9.3%
09: 10.9%
10: 28.4%
11: 29.6%
12: 22.8%
13: 13.7%
14: 19.3%
15: 20.0%
16: 20.8%
17: 17.7%
18: 12.1%
19: 14.5%
20: 23.9%
21: 26.9%
22: 25.6%
23: 21.1%

Vienna-wide: 20.4%

[Tender Branson]

Just a reminder:

In 2005, the Vienna FPÖ started their campaign in the spring with 4% support in the polls. They gained up to 9-11% in polls conducted just before the election and eventually got 15% on election day.

Let´s see if they also underpolled this time (2 weeks ago in Styria they did).

[Tender Branson]

3 other news important for the election tomorrow:

In the last weeks, the Kronen Zeitung put out quite a few editorials in favor of abolishing the draft in Austria. This is also popular with the public, a majority supports abolishing the draft and establishing a professional army.

Because of this, Vienna mayor Michael Häupl of the SPÖ proposed 3 days ago that the SPÖ now supports a referendum on the issue, sometime in 2011. Previously, the SPÖ was strongly in favor of keeping the draft, including President Fischer and Defense Minister Darabos.

Now they went populist, 3 days before the critical elections, probably because they know that the draft is unpopular among young males (strongest FPÖ voters).

...

In a Burgenland town, a ÖVP mayor was found guilty yesterday of faking 13 absentee ballots in the spring state elections. He announced that he`ll step down as mayor, but what effect will this have on the Vienna ÖVP ? An election faker is never good news.

...

Members within the Vienna SPÖ accused FPÖ leader Strache of being a cocaine user. Strache presented 2 drug tests from late September because of this and both were (surprise !) negative.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Where does the FPÖ do well again in Vienna?

Same as the SPÖ. The degree of correlation is actually hilarious.

Indeed:

[Хahar 🤔]

Vienna is shaped a lot like Berlin.

[Tender Branson]

Vienna is shaped a lot like Berlin.

Yeah, but twice the size: population- and size-technically.

BTW: The Vienna "exit polls" today will be different than in other elections.

Because the precincts all close at the same time at 5pm, there won´t be a projection based on precincts already counted like in other states, but a so called "Wahltagsbefragung" by SORA, that was actually done among 2000 Vienna voters by phone on Saturday and Sunday.

A first projection (based on counted precincts) is expected at 6pm.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout seems to be higher than in 2005, maybe 63-66% (with postal votes).

Until 2pm, 36.6% have already voted - which is lower than the 39.4% at the same time in 2005.

But it is not really comparable, because postal votes were not allowed in 2005.

14% of all voters have requested postal votes and turnout is generally high among these voters, so you can add another 10% to the turnout figures.

[Tender Branson]

Polls close in 10 minutes ...

Results can be found here starting @ about 6pm.

http://www.wien.gv.at/english/NET-EN/GR101/index.htm

[Tender Branson]

SORA Weekend poll (2000 voters questioned on Saturday/Sunday):

42-46% SPÖ
23-26% FPÖ
14-16% ÖVP
11-13% Greens
    1-3% BZÖ
    1-2% KPÖ

[Tender Branson]

That could mean up to 27% for the FPÖ, because their voters tend to lie in these telephone polls.

Real results from precincts and the first projection are expected to come in in about 40 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

Sry, deleted the live-stream somehow ...

mms://apasf.apa.at/ORFcmsLive5