The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Austrian Presidential Election ?
#1
Heinz Fischer (Incumbent-SPÖ/IND)		  
#2
Barbara Rosenkranz (FPÖ)		  
#3
Other candidate (please post)		  
#4
Invalid		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 71

Author Topic: The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...  (Read 274162 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #350 on: October 10, 2010, 10:22:09 AM »
Der Standard has some useful maps, as usual:

http://derstandard.at/1285199934028/Grafik-Alle-Wahlergebnisse-im-Detail
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #351 on: October 10, 2010, 10:36:35 AM »
In the next 15 minutes there should be a first projection based on counted precincts ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #352 on: October 10, 2010, 10:54:21 AM »
1st projection by SORA:

44.5% SPÖ
27.2% FPÖ
13.0% ÖVP
12.1% Greens
  1.4% BZÖ
  1.1% KPÖ
  0.7% Others

WOW !
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #353 on: October 10, 2010, 10:58:21 AM »
44.5%    (-4.6%)  SPÖ
27.2% (+12.4%)  FPÖ
13.0%    (-5.8%)  ÖVP
12.1%    (-2.6%)  Greens
  1.4%   (+0.2%)  BZÖ
  1.1%    (-0.3%)  KPÖ
  0.7%   (+0.6%)  Others

The absolute majority for the SPÖ is probably gone ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #354 on: October 10, 2010, 11:01:18 AM »
The ÖVP result is a desaster ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #355 on: October 10, 2010, 11:06:29 AM »
The most likely coalition now will be SPÖ-Green, a coalition of 2 moderate losers.

There will be no elections in Austria for the next 3 years, therefore the FPÖ and Strache will continue his strong opposition against the federal SPÖVP government and the BZÖ is done.

If the federal government sucks in the next 3 years, Strache may be well positioned for a '99 style election result.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #356 on: October 10, 2010, 11:07:24 AM »
Now the seats:

49 SPÖ
28 FPÖ
12 ÖVP
11 Greens

SPÖ has lost its majority !
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #357 on: October 10, 2010, 11:09:40 AM »
Canadians can rejoice. There's a country more stupid than Canada.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #358 on: October 10, 2010, 11:13:03 AM »

Probably the result of Christine Marek, the ÖVP front-runner, with a charisma like a stone.

And, probably a late swing against the ÖVP because of the story I mentioned above:

A mayor in Burgenland faked 13 absentee ballots in the spring state elections and the voters don´t like election fakers ...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #359 on: October 10, 2010, 11:15:37 AM »
Compared to the 2008 results in the city:

SPÖ +9.7
FPÖ +6.8
ÖVP -3.7
Greens -3.9
BZÖ -3.3
KPÖ 0.0

LiF polled 4.2. Did they link up with another party, or have they collapsed?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #360 on: October 10, 2010, 11:17:13 AM »
New projection (with 64% of precincts counted):

44.2% SPÖ
27.0% FPÖ
13.2% ÖVP
12.3% Greens
  1.4% BZÖ
  1.2% KPÖ
  0.7% Others
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #361 on: October 10, 2010, 11:19:50 AM »
Quote from: Gildas on October 10, 2010, 11:15:37 AM
Compared to the 2008 results in the city:

SPÖ +9.7
FPÖ +6.8
ÖVP -3.7
Greens -3.9
BZÖ -3.3
KPÖ 0.0

LiF polled 4.2. Did they link up with another party, or have they collapsed?

They collapsed.

Heide Schmidt left politics, so left their donors and the LIF was mainly based on Schmidt.

Their supporters went over mainly to the Greens and SPÖ I guess ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #362 on: October 10, 2010, 11:23:49 AM »
FPÖ @ 37% in Wien-Simmering !
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #363 on: October 10, 2010, 11:26:44 AM »
85% of the precincts counted:

44.11% SPÖ
26.75% FPÖ
13.31% ÖVP
12.52% Greens
  1.37% BZÖ
  1.15% KPÖ
  0.67% LIF
  0.06% MUT
  0.04% DEM
  0.01% SLP
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #364 on: October 10, 2010, 11:28:37 AM »
With 1 precinct out, the ÖVP has lost the Inner City !

Double-LOL !

Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #365 on: October 10, 2010, 11:30:05 AM »
The Greens have lost the 7th district to the SPÖ, which actually gained 5% there !
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #366 on: October 10, 2010, 11:31:57 AM »
With a strong result in the postal votes, the Greens may actually be ahead of the ÖVP city-wide.

Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #367 on: October 10, 2010, 11:33:22 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 10, 2010, 11:28:37 AM
With 1 precinct out, the ÖVP has lost the Inner City !

Double-LOL !

Tongue

This precinct is now counted, the ÖVP loses their stronghold to the SPÖ.

ÖVP loses 11% there, the SPÖ gains 3.5%.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #368 on: October 10, 2010, 11:33:54 AM »
Yeah, the SPÖ are leading in every district. Seems that gains resulting from the Green problems you mentioned a while ago have partially cancelled out the losses to the FPÖ.


Isn't that where Strache is from? Or near to it? I remember reading in 2008 that he was from the south of the city.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #369 on: October 10, 2010, 11:34:34 AM »
FPÖ now approaching 38% in Simmering.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #370 on: October 10, 2010, 11:35:13 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 10, 2010, 11:33:22 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 10, 2010, 11:28:37 AM
With 1 precinct out, the ÖVP has lost the Inner City !

Double-LOL !

Tongue

This precinct is now counted, the ÖVP loses their stronghold to the SPÖ.

ÖVP loses 11% there, the SPÖ gains 3.5%.

FPÖ up to nearly 16% from 7% last time. Weird. You wouldn't have thought that would be the sort of place to see ÖVP bleeding to FPÖ. Greens down by nearly 3pts.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #371 on: October 10, 2010, 11:39:31 AM »
Quote from: Gildas on October 10, 2010, 11:33:54 AM
Yeah, the SPÖ are leading in every district. Seems that gains resulting from the Green problems you mentioned a while ago have partially cancelled out the losses to the FPÖ.


Isn't that where Strache is from? Or near to it? I remember reading in 2008 that he was from the south of the city.

Yeah, he´s from Favoriten, which is the neighbouring district.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #372 on: October 10, 2010, 11:47:05 AM »
The FPÖ is also much stronger in the districts that are growing faster (population technically) than in the Haider-years (1996).

While in 1996 the FPÖ got 28% city-wide, they got 29% in Vienna-North, which are growing fast and have a lower foreigner amount.

Now the FPÖ has 27% city-wide, but 32-33% in these districts.

The mosque in Floridsdorf could also be a reason ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #373 on: October 10, 2010, 11:51:29 AM »
Turnout will certainly be higher than in 2005.

If postal voters vote with 80% as they usually do, overall turnout will be 65-67%, up from 61% in 2005.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,177
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #374 on: October 10, 2010, 11:53:24 AM »
The remaining precincts are mostly in strong FPÖ areas, so there´s still some room to grow for them.
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