The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

The state of Burgenland will reform absentee voting, after it was known that a ÖVP mayor faked 13 absentee ballots.

Currently, under Austrian election law passed in 2007, it is allowed that absentee ballots can come in until the 8th day (!!!) after the election.

Nobody can check if you have faked the absentee ballot by voting after the results come in. You only have to sign on the ballot that you have voted before the polls have closed. But who can check that ?

Now, the state of Burgenland wants to pass a new law that requires that all absentee ballots have to arrive either on Sunday to be counted or have a postmark dated with the Friday before Sunday (election day).

You also have to personally apply your absentee ballot at the town election office, not like now that a relative or someone else goes to the town office with your passport and takes the absentee ballot for you (for example a daughter, whose mother is old and in a nursing home).

I think the whole Austrian election law should be changed according to these proposals to rule out any faking with absentee ballots.

[Tender Branson]

Strange things going on in the country. The FPÖ got the momentum !

New federal Gallup/Ö24 poll out today:

27% SPÖ
25% FPÖ (!!!)
24% ÖVP
12% Greens
  6% BZÖ
  6% Others

36% of those polled want a Strache-led government, 57% are opposed.

Strache`s party breaks heavily into all demographics, but it is strongest now with men and housewifes. In the age-group of 30-50, the FPÖ is also clearly first.

This is the first time ever that the FPÖ has overtaken the ÖVP in a poll or in an election.



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/wien/FPOe-Strache-schon-auf-Platz-2/4870082

[Tender Branson]

Austria accused of violating child rights



VIENNA — Austria should stop detaining children and halt the deportations of well-integrated foreign families that are denied asylum, Amnesty International and three other groups urged Thursday.

The country also should better protect the rights of non-Austrian minors and become more lenient about allowing young asylum seekers and their parents to stay on humanitarian grounds, the organizations, which include Caritas, SOS Kinderdorf and Diakonie, said in a letter to lawmakers.

The appeal comes just days after two 8-year-old twins were taken into custody with their father in an early morning raid and deported back to their native Kosovo. Their mother, who is in psychiatric care, stayed behind. The four had lived in Austria since 2004 but were expelled after being denied asylum and refusing to leave on their own.

The family's plight has sparked widespread debate and protest, with critics calling the deportations heartless and inhumane. Interior Minister Maria Fekter defended it, saying she was following the rule of law and the children were with their father. She has since softened her stance slightly, acknowledging Wednesday that pictures of the detention — widely published by local media — "greatly moved her" and that she wanted such pickups to be done in a more "humane" manner in the future.

"It can't be necessary for the security of the republic to separate two children from their mother and to forcefully get them out of the country," the groups wrote in their joint letter presented outside parliament in the Austrian capital, Vienna. They later met with Austrian President Heinz Fischer, who told reporters that "prison is no place for children" and other solutions had to be found.

"It's tough to grasp why well-integrated families whose children have spent most of their lives in Austria and who speak German better than their mother tongue aren't granted the right to stay for humanitarian reasons," the letter said.

Also Thursday, the whereabouts of a 14-year-old Armenian girl who disappeared Wednesday before police could pick her up from school to deport her remained unclear. Her mother is under suicide watch, Austrian broadcaster ORF reported.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i8IYr5XzJBa3I1lOYm22aQy591PQD9IRJ8IG0?docId=D9IRJ8IG0

[Tender Branson]

It seems like there will be another SPÖVP Grand Coalition in Styria announced on Tuesday.

And in Vienna, it seems like we won´t see a coalition until November, because both the Greens and the ÖVP are in the game to be a partner of the SPÖ.

In the end we´ll see a coalition partner that is more convenient for the SPÖ and that will not have as many demands. That should be the ÖVP I guess.

If we indeed have 2 new Grand Coalitions of SPÖVP in Styria and Vienna and the federal SPÖVP government, that should be good news for Strache and the FPÖ for the 2013 parliamentary elections.

[Tender Branson]

The rest of the postal votes were counted yesterday in Vienna. The final result now is:

44.4%    (-4.7%)  SPÖ
25.8% (+10.9%)  FPÖ
14.0%    (-4.8%)  ÖVP
12.6%    (-2.0%)  Greens
  1.3%   (+0.2%)  BZÖ
  1.1%    (-0.4%)  KPÖ
  0.7%   (+0.7%)  LIF
  0.1%   (+0.1%)  Others

Turnout: 67.6% (+6.8%)

Seats:

49    (-6)  SPÖ
27 (+14)  FPÖ
13    (-5)  ÖVP
11    (-3)  Greens

The ÖVP has also won the 1st district (Inner City) back from the SPÖ with all the postal votes counted:

[Tender Branson]

This is the first time ever that the FPÖ has overtaken the ÖVP in a poll or in an election.

This is the first time ever that the FPÖ has overtaken the ÖVP in a poll or in an election.

In this decade I mean ...

In the 1999 parliamentary election, the FPÖ got of course 415 votes more than the ÖVP.

It´s good that there´s the OTS archive. I found a couple of federal OGM polls from 1999 and 2000:

19.12.1999:

31% FPÖ, 30% SPÖ, 26% ÖVP, 10% Greens, 3% LIF

23.01.2000:

33% FPÖ, 33% SPÖ, 20% ÖVP, 12% Greens

So, the FPÖ was ahead of the ÖVP this decade ...

[Kevinstat]

It seems like there will be another SPÖVP Grand Coalition in Styria announced on Tuesday.

And in Vienna, it seems like we won´t see a coalition until November, because both the Greens and the ÖVP are in the game to be a partner of the SPÖ.

In the end we´ll see a coalition partner that is more convenient for the SPÖ and that will not have as many demands. That should be the ÖVP I guess.

If we indeed have 2 new Grand Coalitions of SPÖVP in Styria and Vienna and the federal SPÖVP government, that should be good news for Strache and the FPÖ for the 2013 parliamentary elections.

So was the SPÖVP coalition in Stryia announced on Tuesday?  And besides Vienna (unless an agreement has already been reached there), what parties are presently in government in each of the other states in Austria, and which party is the governor from in each of them?

[Kevinstat]

There will be no elections in Austria for the next 3 years, therefore the FPÖ and Strache will continue his strong opposition against the federal SPÖVP government and the BZÖ is done.

If the federal government sucks in the next 3 years, Strache may be well positioned for a '99 style election result.

Will there be any municipal elections in Austria before 2013?  Any in significant cities?

Not counting elections below the state (and Vienna) level, when is the next election presently scheduled to be, and what is that election?  Might there be elections ealier somewhere if a coalition breaks down or a popular government desires an earlier election, or are term lengths set in Austria?  Or does it vary depending on the level of government or the state for state/Vienna city governments.

If you know, when will the next elections be in each state?  And when will the next Parliamentary, Presidential and European Parliament elections be?

You say the "the BZÖ is done," but they still have the governorship of Carinthia where the FPÖ didn't win any seats in the last election.  Do you expect the BZÖ to merge with the FPÖ?  The BZÖ developing a formal CSU-style relationship with the FPÖ?  Or neither but the BZÖ becoming a nothing party (with no chance of winning any seats) at the state level (and gradually most if not all municipalities at the municipal level) outside of Carnithia, with or without the FPÖ becoming (remaining?) a nothing party in Carinthia?

[Tender Branson]

It seems like there will be another SPÖVP Grand Coalition in Styria announced on Tuesday.

And in Vienna, it seems like we won´t see a coalition until November, because both the Greens and the ÖVP are in the game to be a partner of the SPÖ.

In the end we´ll see a coalition partner that is more convenient for the SPÖ and that will not have as many demands. That should be the ÖVP I guess.

If we indeed have 2 new Grand Coalitions of SPÖVP in Styria and Vienna and the federal SPÖVP government, that should be good news for Strache and the FPÖ for the 2013 parliamentary elections.

So was the SPÖVP coalition in Stryia announced on Tuesday?  And besides Vienna (unless an agreement has already been reached there), what parties are presently in government in each of the other states in Austria, and which party is the governor from in each of them?

Hello Kevin:

Yes, the new SPÖVP government in Styria was announced on Tuesday and Gov. Voves of the SPÖ will be re-elected today in the Styria parliament with the votes of SPÖVP and FPÖ. Greens and KPÖ are the opposition.

In Vienna, it takes a while for the SPÖ to find a good coalition partner. Probably another week or 2, but I cannot say who´s the favorite right now. It could be either Greens or ÖVP, but internal sources say that Mayor Häupl of the SPÖ isn´t really a fan of the Greens and that he has good ties to the ÖVP-dominated city branch of the Chamber of Commerce.

The governments of the states:

Burgenland: SPÖ-ÖVP (Gov. Hans Niessl - SPÖ)

Carinthia: FPK-ÖVP-SPÖ (Gov. Gerhard Dörfler - FPK)

Lower Austria: ÖVP-SPÖ-FPÖ (Gov. Erwin Pröll - ÖVP)

Upper Austria: ÖVP-Greens-SPÖ-FPÖ (Gov. Josef Pühringer - ÖVP)

Salzburg: SPÖ-ÖVP (Gov. Gabriele Burgstaller - SPÖ)

Styria: SPÖ-ÖVP-FPÖ (Gov. Franz Voves - SPÖ)

Tyrol: ÖVP-SPÖ (Gov. Günther Platter - ÖVP)

Vorarlberg: ÖVP (Gov. Herbert Sausgruber  - ÖVP)

Vienna (currently): SPÖ (Mayor and Governor Michael Häupl - SPÖ)

...

Now you will ask yourself: Why was there a SPÖVP government announced in Styria, but the FPÖ is still in the government.

That has to do with the Proporz-System. Read here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proporz

[Tender Branson]

There will be no elections in Austria for the next 3 years, therefore the FPÖ and Strache will continue his strong opposition against the federal SPÖVP government and the BZÖ is done.

If the federal government sucks in the next 3 years, Strache may be well positioned for a '99 style election result.

Will there be any municipal elections in Austria before 2013?  Any in significant cities?

Yes, there will be municipal elections in 2012 in the state of Burgenland, was well as in the bigger cities of Innsbruck (Tyrol) and Krems (Lower Austria).

Not counting elections below the state (and Vienna) level, when is the next election presently scheduled to be, and what is that election?  Might there be elections ealier somewhere if a coalition breaks down or a popular government desires an earlier election, or are term lengths set in Austria?  Or does it vary depending on the level of government or the state for state/Vienna city governments.

The next Austrian Parliament Election is scheduled to be in 2013, because the term was widened to 5 years with the new 2007 election law. Previuosly it was 4 years. It was widened by the SPÖVP government so "that they have more time for reforms".

Of course a government can break up and a party can call for early elections, as was the case in 2008, after 2 years.

But in the current coalition the athmosphere between SPÖ and ÖVP is much better than under Gusenbauer/Molterer between 2006 and 2008, so I expect that there won´t be early elections.

If you know, when will the next elections be in each state?  And when will the next Parliamentary, Presidential and European Parliament elections be?

Parliament: 2013

Presidential: 2016

EP: 2014

States: http://www.sora.at/index.php?id=29&L=1

You say the "the BZÖ is done," but they still have the governorship of Carinthia where the FPÖ didn't win any seats in the last election.  Do you expect the BZÖ to merge with the FPÖ? The BZÖ developing a formal CSU-style relationship with the FPÖ?  Or neither but the BZÖ becoming a nothing party (with no chance of winning any seats) at the state level (and gradually most if not all municipalities at the municipal level) outside of Carnithia, with or without the FPÖ becoming (remaining?) a nothing party in Carinthia?

The BZÖ does not have the Governorship in Carinthia - the FPK (Freedom Party of Carinthia) has. The FPK was created in December 2009, when the Scheuch brothers announced their split from the state BZÖ. Most of the BZÖ members followed and now there`s a stronger FPK in the state (with about 30% support in opinion polls) and a weaker rest-BZÖ (with about 15% support in opinion polls).

The BZÖ outside of Carinthia is dead, they had only 3% maximum in each state election and they are in no state parliament.

I think it´s more likely that the BZÖ will be dissolved in the rest of Austria, rather than being integrated into the FPÖ. Josef Bucher of the federal BZÖ is not a good friend of Heinz-Christian Strache from the FPÖ.

I´m not so sure about Carinthia though. Maybe the BZÖ will get a respectable result in the 2014 state election, but I doubt it. I guess most former BZÖ voters will switch over to the FPK in 4 years. Therefore the BZÖ will more or less be history in 5 years.

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING NEWS: There will be a Red-Green coalition in Vienna !



It will be the first Red-Green government in Austria on any level and Maria Vassilakou will become vice-mayor.

It will be announced by SPÖ mayor Michael Häupl in the next hour.

[Hans-im-Glück]

BREAKING NEWS: There will be a Red-Green coalition in Vienna !



It will be the first Red-Green government in Austria on any level and Maria Vassilakou will become vice-mayor.

It will be announced by SPÖ mayor Michael Häupl in the next hour.

I don't expect this, but this is the right way. It makes no sense to build every time a SPÖVP coalition. Häupl must have problems with this decision. Everything I heard from him shows that he isn't a big fan of Red-Green. But maybe I'm wrong.

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING NEWS: There will be a Red-Green coalition in Vienna !



It will be the first Red-Green government in Austria on any level and Maria Vassilakou will become vice-mayor.

It will be announced by SPÖ mayor Michael Häupl in the next hour.

I don't expect this, but this is the right way. It makes no sense to build every time a SPÖVP coalition. Häupl must have problems with this decision. Everything I heard from him shows that he isn't a big fan of Red-Green. But maybe I'm wrong.

Yeah, we´ll see what happens in Vienna. The good thing is that the ÖVP will get stronger again when they are in opposition now for 5 years and that probably means that the FPÖ will be weaker in 5 years.

[Tender Branson]

2 new federal polls out today:

Karmasin Motivforschung for the newspaper Profil

30% SPÖ (-3 compared with last poll)
28% ÖVP (-5)
24% FPÖ (+4)
12% Greens (+1)
  4% BZÖ (+2)
  2% Others (+1)

Peter Hajek Public Opinion Strategies for ATV's Austria Trend



I guess this will only get worse now for SPÖVP when the government announces their 2011 budget next week. But they don´t have to worry, because there´s no election for the next 3 years.

...

There´s also a new Spectra poll for Upper Austria:

Federal election in Upper Austria



Who is the driving force in the federal government ?



Who do you like more ? Chancellor Faymann or Opposition leader Pröll ?



State election in Upper Austria



Approval ratings of Upper Austria politicians:



Good marks for the ÖVP-Green government:

Gov. Pühringer (ÖVP) has a 78-12 approval rating, and Vice-Governor Anschober (Greens) has a 60-22 approval rating.

[Insula Dei]

Is the ÖVP centrist, centre-right or rightwing?

The number of SPOVP coalitions seems to suggest a more moderate party.

[Tender Branson]

Is the ÖVP centrist, centre-right or rightwing?

The number of SPOVP coalitions seems to suggest a more moderate party.

I´d say pro-business, centrist on social values and with Interior Minister Maria Fekter right-wing on ayslum and security policy. Therefore center-right. The real rightwing party if the FPÖ of course.

[Tender Branson]

The new 2011 budget was announced by SPÖVP today:



It shows about 1.1 Bio. € of new or higher taxes for next year and spending cuts of about 500 Mio. €

Originally it was planned that there will be 1.7 Bio. € of higher taxes, but income tax revenue is so good this year (+10% or so compared with last year) that there will be fewer new taxes next year due to the good economy.

The biggest chunk of new taxes will be a 500 Mio. € bank tax, followed by a 417 Mio. increase of the gas tax, 100 Mio. of higher tobacco taxes and 100 Mio. will bring a new anti-corruption package.

Spending cuts will include about 363 Mio. of family benefits, 83 Mio. of pension changes for the 1st pension year and 44 Mio. for labor market assistance cuts.

The budget deficit will be 3% next year, instead of the 4% that was originally thought.

This will mean that we'll have one of the best budget deficits this year in the EU, together with Germany - which as far as I know will already have less than 3% deficit this or next year.

[Tender Branson]

Alltogether I think it´s a solid budget, even if I think the cuts in family benefits were unnecessary. Instead they should have introduced a wealth tax for the rich, which could have brought in about 500 Mio. € next year and onwards. The bank tax is a good idea and the 4/5 Cent-per-liter increase of the gas tax isn´t too bad either. I mean if you fill up your car with 100 liter each month, you have to pay 5€ more now each month, but they also raised the commuter-benefit, so it won´t affect the "hardest hit".

The increase of the tobacco tax is fine with me too, because I don´t smoke and what can someone have against an anti-corruption package that will go after illegal workers and corporate fraud ?

So, yeah, too bad the ÖVP blocked the introduction of the wealth tax, which could have been used to redistribute money into the more underfunded sectors like universities, schools and geriatric care. In my opinion, the rich should bleed for the middle class, not the other way round.

[Tender Branson]

It won't be long until the FPÖ is first.

3 new polls out today:

OGM/Kurier

28%  (-1) SPÖ
26% (+8) FPÖ
26%  (nc) ÖVP
12% (+2) Greens
  6%  (-5) BZÖ
  2%  (-4) Others

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/2045676.php

Gallup/Ö24

29%  (nc) SPÖ
25%  (-1) ÖVP
24% (+6) FPÖ
12% (+2) Greens
  5%  (-6) BZÖ
  5%  (-1) Others

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Minus-fuer-Regierung-nach-Sparpaket/6006627

Market/Standard

26%  (-3) SPÖ
25% (+7) FPÖ
25%  (-1) ÖVP
13% (+3) Greens
  6%  (-5) BZÖ
  5%  (-1) Others

http://derstandard.at/1288160281378/Umfrage-Mittelschicht-fuehlt-sich-von-Sparpaket-benachteiligt

[minionofmidas]

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Society for European Policy (ÖGFE) recently asked 1004 Austrians if they favored or opposed the EU membership of the following countries:

Croatia: 68% favor, 18% oppose

Iceland: 62% favor, 21% oppose

Macedonia: 39% favor, 37% oppose

Turkey: 17% favor, 69% oppose

http://cms.euro-info.net/received/_6852_Hauptaussagen_Erweiterung_081110.pdf

[Franzl]

I'm happy Austria is holding the line against Turkish membership. Congratulations.

[Tender Branson]

I'm happy Austria is holding the line against Turkish membership. Congratulations.

Yeah, the coalition contract between SPÖ and ÖVP even calls for a mandatory referendum in Austria should Turkey be granted membership by the EU.

And you know how that would end up ...

So, no Turkey membership until at least 2013.

Also, the Turkish ambassador in Austria created some trouble yesterday:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Franzl]

The assholes should leave if they don't like it. Not our problem.

[Tender Branson]

New Kurier/OGM poll about the remarks of the Turkish ambassador:

Should Kadri Ecved Tezcan (the Turkish ambassador in Austria) stay in Austria or should he be replaced ?

32% Stay
54% Replace

The remarks of Kadri Ecved Tezcan about Austrian integration issues are ...

12% Justified
48% Not justified
35% Somewhat justified

Who should do more for Integration ?

51% The Turks in Austria
  7% The Austrians
39% Both

What are the biggest difficulties between Turkish immigrants and Austrians ?

81% Different lifestyles
78% Language
65% Headscarves and women issues
49% Religion

Do you favor or oppose a Ministry of Integration ?

36% Favor
58% Oppose

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/2049506.php

I'm already looking forward to the next polls about federal elections ...

(Probably playing into the hands of FPÖ+BZÖ, because of his remarks and because FPÖ+BZÖ now have the opposition monopoly in Austria, with the SPÖ/Green government being finalized yesterday in Vienna and the SPÖVP federal government.)