The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll:



Gallup also surveyed Austrians about the Turkish ambassador:

41% say he should be replaced, 59% say he should be allowed to stay.

This is the opposite of what the (historically more accurate) OGM-survey said yesterday.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/66-Prozent-sind-mit-Regierung-unzufrieden/7090630

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/59-sagen-Botschafter-darf-bleiben/7029069

[Tender Branson]

There's a Red-Green government in Vienna now !



The coalition agreement was signed an hour ago by Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) and Vice-Mayor and Green Party leader Maria Vassilakou.



PS: The FPÖ is calling Red-Green in Vienna a "Horror-Experiment" ... LOL.

[Tender Branson]

Speaking about Vienna:

Vienna will overtake Warsaw this year in terms of population, Budapest next year and Hamburg most likely by the years 2015-2020.

The city will add about 22.000 people this year, which is 1.3% growth.

If these trends hold, the city could even overtake Bucharest (currently 1.94 Mio. people) in the 2020s and become the 6th biggest city in the EU.

[Tender Branson]

New Kurier/OGM federal elections poll:



Because the FPÖ usually underpolls, it is probably already 1st.

OGM also notes that among people younger than 30, the FPÖ is 1st now "by a wide margin".

[Tender Branson]

New Profil/Karmasin Motivforschung poll:

29%  (nc) SPÖ (-4 from October survey)
26%  (nc) ÖVP (-6)
24% (+6) FPÖ (+4)
13% (+3) Greens (+2)
  5%  (-6) BZÖ (+1)
  3%  (-3) Others (+3)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20101120_OTS0003/profil-umfrage-starke-verluste-der-oevp-faymann-vor-proell

[Tender Branson]

After complaining about Austrian integration policy, the Turkish ambassador in Austria is involved in the next scandal:

The magazine "NEWS" reports that the ambassador and the Turkish embassy in Vienna is now interfering in employment policy of the Austrian Chamber of Commerce.

To be more precise:

The Turkish embassy is pushing for Austrians with Kurdish background and who work for the Austrian Chamber of Commerce to be fired from their jobs because they could be PKK terrorists !

http://www.news.at/articles/1047/8/282992/neuer-skandal-tuerkische-botschaft-wirtschaftskammer-druck

I already had a dubious opinion of this dude when the first reports broke, but this proves now that the guy needs to be removed from Austria.

[Tender Branson]

The new Gallup poll for Ö24 shows the following:

27%  (-2) SPÖ
24% (+6) FPÖ
24%  (-2) ÖVP
13% (+3) Greens
12%  (-5) Others (incl. BZÖ)

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the newspaper "Standard":

29%  (nc) SPÖ
25%  (-1) ÖVP
24% (+6) FPÖ
12% (+2) Greens
  5%  (-6) BZÖ
  5%  (-1) Others

Direct vote for Austrian Chancellor:

21% Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ) !!!
20% Werner Faymann (SPÖ-Incumbent)
10% Josef Pröll (ÖVP)

I guess this is the first time ever that Strache is 1st in the preferred chancellor vote.

More than 7 out of 10 FPÖ voters now back Strache for Chancellor and Faymann is also backed by more than 7 in 10 SPÖ voters.

Pröll has lost a lot of ground and is backed by just slightly more than 4 in 10 ÖVP voters.

Strache als performs better than BZÖ-leader Josef Bucher with BZÖ voters, while Faymann beats Green-leader Eva Glawischnig among Green voters.

http://derstandard.at/1289608955237/STANDARD-Umfrage-Strache-bei-Kanzlerfrage-erstmals-auf-erstem-Platz

[Tender Branson]

Here´s the historical chart of the "preferred chancellor vote":



Notice the rise of Strache after the Vienna elections and the 2011 budget by the SPÖVP government and the fall of Faymann/Pröll at the same time.

The fact that Josef Bucher of the BZÖ is preferred by 0% as chancellor also means something: The BZÖ is moving further ahead on the path to its destruction (or fusion with the FPÖ).

The fact that they currently have 5-6% support in the polls is probably due to many ÖVP voters who are outraged by the ÖVP and the 2 Prölls and therefore switch over to the BZÖ.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Meh. The main thing to note there isn't that Strache is marginally less unpopular than the other party leaders.

[Tender Branson]

Meh. The main thing to note there isn't that Strache is marginally less unpopular than the other party leaders.

Yeah, 46% in this survey want either "none of these people" to be chancellor, "another one" or they are simply "undecided".

Not that it means anything right now, the next elections are in 3 years.

Strache and the FPÖ don't even have to do much to get new voters, the SPÖVP government is sending them voters en masse with their policies.

[Tender Branson]

A new Profil/Karmasin Motivforschung poll about EU-membership of Turkey:

  4% Strongly Favor
16% "Sometime in the future"
61% Strongly Oppose
19% Undecided

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20101211_OTS0004/profil-umfrage-immer-weniger-zustimmung-fuer-tuerkei-beitritt

[Tender Branson]

IFAP Tyrol state elections poll for the ÖVP:

46-47% ÖVP
15-16% SPÖ
13-14% FPÖ
11-12% Greens
10-12% LFD

http://portal.tt.com/csp/cms/sites/tt/%C3%9Cberblick/Politik/PolitikTirol/PolitikTirolContainer/1830712-8/%C3%B6vp-pr%C3%A4sentierte-stimmungsbarometer.csp

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Österreich poll:

27%  (-2) SPÖ
25% (+7) FPÖ
24%  (-2) ÖVP
14% (+4) Greens
  5%  (-6) BZÖ
  5%  (-1) Others

51-44 majority for the Grand-Coalition (SPÖVP)
52-43 majority for SPÖ-FPÖ
49-46 majority for FPÖ-ÖVP

No majority for SPÖ-Greens.

FPÖ/BZÖ would be biggest party.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FPOe-ueberholt-OeVP-in-der-Sonntagsfrage/12381148

[Insula Dei]

Nasty stuff.

My condoleances Tender.

[Tender Branson]

Nasty stuff.

My condoleances Tender.

Why ? The Greens are at 14% too (which is a record high for them) !

(Anyway, I think we might get a poll soon that has the FPÖ leading)

[Lotuslander]

IFAP Tyrol state elections poll for the ÖVP:

46-47% ÖVP
15-16% SPÖ
13-14% FPÖ
11-12% Greens
10-12% LFD

What's the LFD?

[Tender Branson]

IFAP Tyrol state elections poll for the ÖVP:

46-47% ÖVP
15-16% SPÖ
13-14% FPÖ
11-12% Greens
10-12% LFD

What's the LFD?

"Liste Fritz Dinkhauser" - a centrist movement by a former popular state ÖVP-member, who broke with the party because of differences with the leadership.

They got about 19% in the 2008 state elections and are mainly attractive for people not satisfied with the ÖVP and also the SPÖ and Greens to a lesser extent.

It is comparable to the "Freie Wähler" list in Bavaria.

[Tender Branson]

The "Strache for Chancellor"-campaign is getting more serious:

After going to Israel and meeting with Israeli Right-Wing politicians and settlers, Strache will now "learn" more about foreign policy in the coming months by accepting invitations by the Tea-Party (US) and by some Canadian party. Strache said he finds the Tea-Party movement "very interesting" because it's a movement consisting of "frustrated people". He will say who from the Tea Party invited him to the US before he goes there.

http://derstandard.at/1291454894123/Auslandsreisen-Strache-reist-zu-Tea-Party-Vertretern-in-die-USA

I swear, if Palin and Strache become leaders of the US and Austria, I will emigrate to Norway ...

[Tender Branson]

New poll for ATV:

Voting intentions for the next parliamentary election:



Hypothetical vote for Chancellor:



Approval Rating of the SPÖVP government:



23% Approve
75% Disapprove

[Tender Branson]

Education is now front and center in Austrian politics, because the Austrian students sucked so badly at the most recent PISA tests. OGM has a new poll about it, done for the newspaper "Presse":

 

 

The first question asks if Austrians are in favor of introducing tuition fees:

70% in favor
23% oppose

Interesting fact is that voters from all parties, even the Greens, are in favor.

The second question asks how high the fees should be:

51% say 360€ per semester
16% say 500€ per semester
  5% say up to 5000€ per semester
25% say Universities should decide individually

The third question asks if people are in favor of entry restrictions in universities:

34% in favor for all studies
40% in favor for selected "mass studies"
25% against

The fourth question is about how students from high schools should be selected by the universities:

48% want entry tests before the first semester
34% want entry tests after the first semester
18% want a selection based on final high school exams (Maturanoten)

The fifth question asks voters if they are in favor of a horse-trade between SPÖ and ÖVP (the SPÖ votes for the introduction of tuition fees, while the ÖVP votes for the introduction of a new comprehensive school for 10-14 year olds):

31% Favor
58% Oppose

[Tender Branson]

New IMAS poll for the "Kronen Zeitung":



Rather interesting that they have the BZÖ with the same level of support like they had in the 2008 elections. All other pollsters had the BZÖ at around 3-6% in the last surveys. It could be ÖVP voters who are unhappy with their party switching over, but who knows ...

[Tender Branson]

New Tyrol state elections poll by Market for the TT:

46%  (+5.5) ÖVP
17%  (+1.5) SPÖ
15%  (+4.3) Greens
13%  (+0.6) FPÖ
  5% (-13.4) CFT
  2%  (+2.0) CCT
  0%    (nc)   BZÖ
  2%   (-0.5) Others (Christians, Communists)

The most popular politician in Tyrol is now the new mayor of Innsbruck from the FI list, Christine Oppitz-Plörer, who has a job approval rating of 72-15.



Governor Günther Platter (ÖVP) has a 67-24 approval rating.

Hannes Gschwendtner (SPÖ leader) has a 68-22 approval rating.

Georg Willi (Green leader) has a 59-29 approval rating.

Gerald Hauser (FPÖ leader) has a 46-40 approval rating.

Fritz Dinkhauser (CFT leader) has a 53-36 approval rating.

Fritz Gurgiser (CCT leader) has a 61-29 approval rating.

Former governor Herwig van Staa (who is related to States Rights), has a 54-36 approval rating.

http://www.tt.com/csp/cms/sites/tt/%C3%9Cberblick/Politik/PolitikTirol/1925209-6/b%C3%BCrgermeisterin-klettert-an-spitze.csp

[Tender Branson]

New Bezirksblätter/Grazer Gesellschaft für Marketing und Kommunikation poll for Salzburg:











...

Also, the same company has polled Tyrol:





...

And they also polled the Innsbruck city council elections, to be held in 2012:

[Insula Dei]

I think you should start a new thread for those as it's no longer 2011.

And, the Salzburg personal  ratings seem okay for the SPÖ. Am I correct?