The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

Today, a new Gallup poll for Ö24 was released:

28% SPÖ
25% FPÖ
25% ÖVP
14% Greens
  4% BZÖ
  4% Others

The above figures are with "leaners" included. But Gallup today also provides "raw data" which says that the SPÖ currently only has 18% core voters, the FPÖ already 17% and the ÖVP only 16%.

That means the FPÖ already has a base of die-hard-core voters similar to the 2008 end result, while SPÖ and ÖVP have a base that is 10% BELOW their 2008 end results.

Gallup therefore argues that if the currently undecided voters break heavily for the FPÖ in a protest vote, the FPÖ would win the election.

Gallup also notes that the FPÖ currently is very strong in the 30-50 age group, with women and city voters.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Atom-Plus-fuer-unsere-Regierung/20706371

[Tender Branson]

New Standard/Market poll out today:

27%  (-2.3) SPÖ
27% (+1.0) ÖVP
26% (+8.5) FPÖ
12% (+1.6) Greens
  5%  (-5.7) BZÖ
  3%  (-3.1) Others

Market notes that the FPÖ is now first in the raw data, which means the base vote without leaners.

Direct vote for Chancellor:



About 6 out of 10 Austrians do not favor ANY of the party-leaders for Chancellor.

http://derstandard.at/1297821174500/Umfrage-Zustimmung-zu-Kanzler-und-Vize-gering-wie-noch-nie

[Tender Branson]

Austrian Nuclear Referendum 1978 by county (because it was boring today):



Interestingly, my county voted FOR the Nuclear Power Plant.

I always thought it would have voted against it ...

In general it can be said that SPÖ areas voted for the Nuclear Power Plant and ÖVP areas against it.

[Emperor]

Austrian Nuclear Referendum 1978 by county (because it was boring today):



Interestingly, my county voted FOR the Nuclear Power Plant.

I always thought it would have voted against it ...

In general it can be said that SPÖ areas voted for the Nuclear Power Plant and ÖVP areas against it.

Cool map of 1978, as well as the three way race in parl. elections this year in Austria...

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP and BZÖ seem to be in self-destruct mode in the last couple weeks:

Petzner admits drink-driving

A right-wing politician has vowed to "draw political conclusions" from being caught drink-driving.

Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ) MP Stefan Petzner confirmed newspaper reports that he lost his licence for getting behind the wheel under the influence of alcohol.

Referring to the incident last December, the BZÖ Carinthia chief claimed he drove because of a "medical emergency". Petzner said today (Thurs) he drove to a clinic after drinking alcohol to have a tumour examined. The politician did not reveal any further information on the location of the potentially cancer-triggering swelling except that it turned out to be harmless.

Petzner said: "What happened to many others also happened to me – I was caught by a radar trap."

The BZÖ official argued he needed to commute from the southern province of Carinthia to Vienna – where the federal parliament is located – constantly "since I haven’t got a chauffeur funded by taxpayers, in contrast to government ministers".

Petzner made clear he will "draw political conclusions" from the occurrences. The head of the BZÖ’s department in Carinthia refused to comment on rumours claiming he planned to resign as MP. Petzner said he will make his decision public tomorrow.

Petzner made headlines all over the world with his tearful farewell from his "soulmate" Jörg Haider after the right-wing spearhead and BZÖ founder died in a drink-drive car crash in October 2008. Petzner succeeded Haider as chairman of the party, but was replaced by Herbert Scheibner after just a few weeks. The BZÖ, which garnered 10.7 per cent in the general election of September 2008, is currently headed by Josef Bucher.

Petzner stepped down as general secretary of the party last April – just days after he labelled reports that he was considering to resign as "attempts to harm our Easter peace."

Some political rivals claimed he made himself a laughing stock some months later by revealing his "vision" to become mayor of Vienna someday. The BZÖ has struggled to get a foothold in the capital ever since it was established by Haider in April 2005. It bagged just 1.33 per cent in last October’s city parliament ballot.

http://austrianindependent.com/news/Politics/2011-03-24/6858/Petzner_admits_drink-driving

[Tender Branson]

In a new IMAS poll, Austrians support the crucifix in the classrooms and say that the country is a Christian country:

"Das Kreuz und andere christliche Symbole haben in den Schulen eigentlich nichts mehr zu suchen."

("The Crucifix and other Christian Symbols do not belong to classrooms anymore.")

19% Support
70% Oppose

SPÖ voters: 18-72
ÖVP voters: 17-71
FPÖ/BZÖ voters: 13-81
Green voters: 34-47
Other voters: 20-68

"Österreich ist ein christliches Land und sollte es auch bleiben."

("Austria is a Christian country and should remain so.")

80% Support
13% Oppose

SPÖ voters: 79-13
ÖVP voters: 87-9
FPÖ/BZÖ voters: 86-7
Green voters: 50-29
Other voters: 80-14

http://www.imas.at/content/download/642/3046/version/1/file/8-2011.pdf

[Tender Branson]

New Karmasin poll out that shows which party Austrians blame most for the recent lobbying/corruption scandals:



Currently, 3 former ÖVP-politicians (Grasser, Strasser, Kapeller) are on trial because of that.

And there has been no poll out since the Strasser-story, so I guess the ÖVP will not do so well in the next weeks ...

[Tender Branson]

It has finally happened !

(Isn't really surprising to me though due to the recent ÖVP f**k-up ...)

New ATV Austria Trend released today:

29% [+11.5] FPÖ
26%    [-3.3] SPÖ
25%    [-1.0] ÖVP
14%   [+3.6] Greens
  4%    [-6.7] BZÖ
  2%    [-4.1] Others

Only a slight majority for the "Grand Coalition" (51-47) anymore (LOL).

Big majorities for FPÖ-SPÖ (55-43) and FPÖ-ÖVP though (54-44).

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20110401_OTS0114/atv-oesterreich-trend-fpoe-erstmals-klar-auf-platz-1

"Die Umfrage wurde unter 1.000 Wahlberechtigten ab 16 Jahren im Zeitraum von 16. bis 28. März 2011 telefonisch durchgeführt."

(poll was conducted from March 16-28 among 1000 eligible voters)

That means the ÖVP scandals are not even fully visible there ...

We just have to wait for the next polls, maybe the FPÖ is passing 30% then.

[Tender Branson]

The new Gallup/Ö24 poll tells a slightly different story:

27% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
23% ÖVP
16% Greens
  4% BZÖ
  4% Others

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeVP-stuerzt-ab-Gruene-legen-zu/21779744

If we average the 2 new polls, it shows that the results of FPÖ and Greens are the best ever in Austrian electoral history, while SPÖ and ÖVP have their worst result ever.

[Tender Branson]

New IMAS/Krone poll for Styria:

34%  [-4.3] SPÖ
31%  [-6.2] ÖVP
14% [+3.3] FPÖ
11% [+5.4] Greens
  7% [+2.6] KPÖ
  2%  [-1.0] BZÖ
  1% [+0.2] Others

Recently, the SPÖVP government in Styria - reelected last year - proposed deep cuts of 1.5 Bio. € in the budget over the next 2 years - mostly in social areas like the abolition of the free kindergarden year, cuts in hospital funding and the abolition of the state commuter benefit.

As you can see, SPÖVP is now losing massively to the leftist fringe parties because of this.

Strangly, voters in this poll also say the budget cuts are necessary by a 55-32 margin.

http://steiermark.orf.at/stories/507963

http://www.krone.at/Steiermark/Dickes_Umfrage-Minus_fuer_steirische_Grossparteien-Strafe_fuers_Sparen-Story-254387

[Tender Branson]

The new Gallup/Ö24 poll tells a slightly different story:

27% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
23% ÖVP
16% Greens
  4% BZÖ
  4% Others

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeVP-stuerzt-ab-Gruene-legen-zu/21779744

If we average the 2 new polls, it shows that the results of FPÖ and Greens are the best ever in Austrian electoral history, while SPÖ and ÖVP have their worst result ever.

A few bonus findings about this poll, released today:



Austrians now prefer a Red-Green government (even though Red-Green is far from having a majority).



In this poll, Faymann easily beats Pröll and Strache for Chancellor - other polls have seen it much closer.



68% say that politicians in Austria are corrupt, 24% say not.

26% say the ÖVP is the most corrupt party, 13% say FPÖ, 6% BZÖ, 6% SPÖ, 1% Greens.

70% say that politicians are more corrupt than people who have other professions.

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for Upper Austria:

43%  [-4] ÖVP
23%  [-2] SPÖ
20% [+5] FPÖ
11% [+2] Greens
  2%  [-1] BZÖ
  1%  [nc] Others

http://www.volksblatt.at/index.php?id=73001&MP=61-9395

[Tender Branson]

"Big Sister" (Interior Minister) Maria Fekter goes Arizona-style when it comes to immigration:

“The police will have authorisation to enter private homes,” headlines Die Presse. As part of a new hard line on immigration put forward by Austria’s very active interior minister Maria Fekter (ÖVP), the police will no longer require a warrant to search private residences and vehicles if they suspect the presence of undocumented aliens. The measures, which are described in a specific article of the country’s new ‘Aliens Act’ developed both by the ÖVP and its coalition partner the SPÖ, will be subject to approval by a vote in parliament to take place in the month of April.

“Fekter has established the basis for a generalised suspicion that foreigners are either illegal or criminals,” writes Die Presse, which notes that “civil rights are not the sole preserve of Austrian passport holders. If your daughter has a foreign friend, who happens to be African […], then your home can be searched for drugs. Who is to say that the authorisation to conduct searches without warrants will not be extended to target a wider range of unloved Austrians? A day will come when every Austrian who wants to remain above suspicion will have to have a policeman living in his house.”

http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/news-brief-cover/584621-police-closer-home

[Tender Branson]

New Graz poll by OGM:

36%  [-2.4] ÖVP
17% [+2.4] Greens
17%  [-2.7] SPÖ
16% [+5.1] FPÖ
10%  [-1.2] KPÖ
  4%  [-1.2] BZÖ/Others

Majority for the current ÖVP-Green government.

Approval Ratings of leading city politicians:

Mayor Siegfried Nagl (ÖVP): 54-35
Vice-Mayor Lisa Rücker (Greens): 45-39

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/system/galleries/upload/6/4/6/2718118/2011-04-10-Umfrage-Graz.pdf

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll out today (not much change compared with last weekend, only that the Greens are slightly losing and the BZÖ slightly gaining):



Direct vote for Chancellor:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FPOe-holt-SPOe-schon-fast-ein/22796729

[Tender Branson]

Krone-girl provides the new IMAS poll for Upper Austria:



40%  [-7] ÖVP
20% [+5] FPÖ
20%  [-5] SPÖ
15% [+6] Greens
  3%  [nc] BZÖ
  2% [+1] Others

http://www.krone.at/Oberoesterreich/Waere_jetzt_Wahl_bliebe_kein_Stein_auf_dem_anderen-Krone-Umfrage-Story-255913

[Tender Branson]

Austria arrests former neo-Nazi leader Gottfried Kuessel over website

Mr Kuessel, 52, former leader of the now-banned neo-Nazi group VAPO, was believed to be one of the main figures behind the alpen-donau.info website, a key forum for Austria's neo-Nazi movement that was shut down in March.

Half a dozen house searches were conducted late on Monday in Vienna and southern Styria province, during which investigators seized documents, computers, hard-disks, weapons and Nazi paraphernalia, Vienna prosecution spokesman Thomas Vecsey said.

Mr Kuessel and a second person were arrested overnight, he added.

The prosecution said it had received help from US investigators to gain access to the website's servers, which were based in the United States and were long out of reach for the Austrian authorities.

Mr Kuessel was the founder and leader of the Volkstreue Ausserparlamentarische Opposition group (extra-parliamentary opposition loyal to the people), before it was banned under Austria's anti-Nazi law in the 1990s.

The 52-year-old, who has described himself as a "national socialist", has made repeated comments in the past denying the Holocaust and even denounced the diary of Anne Frank as a fabrication.

Sentenced to 10 years in prison in 1993 for Nazi propaganda, he saw his term extended to 11 years over a procedural problem but was released in 1999 after six years for good conduct.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/austria/8447175/Austria-arrests-former-neo-Nazi-leader-Gottfried-Kuessel-over-website.html

Good.

[Tender Branson]

Austria’s vice-chancellor and finance minister quits politics

By Chris Bryant in Vienna

Austria’s finance minister has dramatically announced his decision to quit politics because of ill health, sending a shockwave through the country’s governing coalition and depriving the eurozone of a fierce advocate of fiscal discipline.



Josef Pröll, 42, finance minister, vice-chancellor and leader of the conservative Austrian People’s party, stepped down from all these roles on Wednesday.

“I withdraw completely from politics,” he told a news conference. “The decision is not one against politics, but for my health and my family”.

The decision robs Austria’s uneasy coalition government of a key intermediary whose jovial nature cemented a good working relationship with Werner Faymann, Austria’s Social Democratic chancellor.

It also brings to a sudden end a meteoric political career, which saw the former head of Austria’s farmer’s association rise to the second highest office in the land.

Mr Pröll said party officials would meet on Thursday to discuss who would replace him as party leader; possible successors are thought to include Michael Spindelegger, foreign minister, Maria Fekter, interior minister, and Reinhold Mitterlehner, economics minister.

Austria is not due to hold a general election until 2013 by which time both governing parties hope to reverse their waning popularity and head off a surge in support for the far-right Freedom Party.

Mr Pröll suffered shortness of breath while skiing in the Tyrol last month and was later diagnosed with a pulmonary embolism, a potentially serious arterial blockage.

Doctors urged a period of private convalescence, during which he communicated with only a handful of senior party figures.

His public silence sparked rumours that his medical condition was more serious, but his spokesman had continued to insist Mr Pröll would return to work after Easter.

His absence allowed a political storm within the People’s party to escalate still further, following a succession of corruption scandals.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc6e1fbc-65a5-11e0-baee-00144feab49a.html#axzz1JTN02WAL

...



Too bad. He was a good finance minister.

[Tender Branson]

Probably the next ÖVP leader (who is also a good friend of SPÖ Chancellor Faymann):



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Spindelegger

Would be a good choice in my opinion.

Reinhold Mitterlehner would also be a great choice, but if they pick Maria Fekter, it would be really awful for Austria and awful for the party ...

[Tender Branson]

Yepp, they picked Michael Spindelegger today:

Austrian foreign minister becomes vice premier, conservative chief

Vienna - Austria's centre-right People's Party (OeVP) chose Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger on Thursday to succeed Josef Proell as vice chancellor and party chairman.

Proell stepped down from all political posts a day earlier for health reasons. He was also finance minister.

Spindelegger, 51, would retain his post as foreign minister, Austrian Press Agency APA reported.

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/europe/news/article_1632940.php/Austrian-foreign-minister-becomes-vice-premier-conservative-chief

It will be interesting to see now who becomes Foreign Minister and Finance Minister ...

[Tender Branson]

New Standard/Market poll out today and it shows a new low for the ÖVP (taken before the Pröll resignation):



http://derstandard.at/1302745253323/STANDARD-Umfrage-Historischer-Tiefstand-fuer-OeVP-Mit-22-Prozent-auf-drittem-Platz

[Tender Branson]

New IMAS poll for the Kronen Zeitung:



http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/OeVP_im_Umfragetief._Proell-Abgang_schockte_Waehler-Krone-Blitzumfrage-Story-257053

Neither IMAS nor the Market poll yesterday are really good polls, let's wait for the next OGM poll.

[Tender Branson]

The new ÖVP leader Michael Spindelegger has announced today that the whole ÖVP cabinet will be re-shuffled in the next 3 weeks.

Maria Fekter, currently Interior Minister, will replace Josef Pröll as Finance Minister.

Spindelegger also said today that the rather inept Justice Minister Claudia Bandion-Ortner will be fired.

Spindelegger, who is also the current Foreign Minister, has not announced so far if he'll continue as Foreign Minister.

If he does, he would have 4 jobs: Vice-Chancellor, ÖVP-leader, Foreign Minister and ÖAAB-leader (The ÖAAB is the workers & employee branch of the ÖVP).

That means we'll see new ministers for Interior and Justice and probably a new Foreign Minister.

Interior will probably be taken by Fritz Kaltenegger or Karl-Heinz Kopf.

As new Justice Minister, Christoph Herbst is mentioned.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll out today (conducted yesterday and today):

27% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
21% ÖVP
16% Greens
  6% BZÖ
  4% Others

Wow. For the first time ever the "Grand" SPÖVP coalition isn't "Grand" anymore. It is now at 48% and the opposition also has 48% ... MEGALOL !!!

87% also say that they supported Vice-Chancellor Pröll's decision to step down from all his political positions due to his poor health.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeVP-stuerzt-auch-mit-Spindelegger-weiter-ab/24390346

OGM also polled for the Kurier newspaper, but not the general election:

They only asked if Michael Spindelegger is a good or bad choice as new conservative leader. 40% say he's a good choice, only 18% say that they wanted someone else to lead the party.

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/2090739.php

[Tender Branson]

New Chancellor poll by Gallup/Ö24:



New Profil/Karmasin Motivforschung poll:

27% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
23% ÖVP
15% Greens
  6% BZÖ
  3% Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20110416_OTS0007/profil-erste-umfrage-zur-neuen-oevp-fuehrung

It looks like the IMAS poll was an outlier which underestimated the FPÖ and overestimated the BZÖ, while the ATV poll was an outlier in favor of the FPÖ.