The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I love how Strache's ratings are significantly lower than those of his party; anyone would think the FPÖ was a protest party or something.

[Tender Branson]

I love how Strache's ratings are significantly lower than those of his party; anyone would think the FPÖ was a protest party or something.

I think it's about 50-50. There's a certain base of about 10-15% that will always vote FPÖ and the rest are protest voters. That's also in line with the Rosenkranz vote and Strache's ratings in the chancellor matchups.

[Tender Branson]

LOL. Just noticed the huge graphic-fail by Ö24.

Erwin Pröll is the governor of Lower Austria, but Josef Pröll was the ÖVP leader who stepped down.

[Tender Branson]

Spindelegger starts out with strong personal ratings according to Gallup, he already was the most popular member of the cabinet as foreign ministers usually are, but he gained another 21 net points in the last weeks:



The above values are the saldo of "approve of the work/disapprove of the work" of each cabinet member. President Heinz Fischer remains the most popular, with a positive saldo of 45. Justice Minister Claudia Bandion-Ortner, who will be replaced, is the least popular.

[Tender Branson]

The new ÖVP-leader Michael Spindelegger announced his new cabinet today:

VIENNA — Austria's hardline interior minister has been named as the country's new finance minister.

Maria Fekter replaces Josef Proell, who surprisingly vacated the post last week for health reasons. He was swiftly succeeded as vice chancellor and People's Party chief by foreign minister Michael Spindelegger.

Other appointments announced Tuesday include Johanna Mikl-Leitner as new interior minister. Beatrix Karl, the current science and research minister, will head the justice ministry. She will be replaced by Innsbruck University dean Karlheinz Töchterle.

The conservative People's Party is in a coalition government with the centre-left Social Democrats.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5hi5nuTKoAox70uJpYQW-ggSWKfIg?docId=6609556

What this article doesn't mention is the fact that there will be a new Secretary of State for Immigration and Integration, which will be merged with the Secretary of State for Families.

The new Secretary of State for Immigration, Integration and Families will be the Young ÖVP-leader Sebastian Kurz, who is only 24 years old.

[Tender Branson]

The new ÖVP team:



Sebastian Kurz, Wolfgang Waldner, Beatrix Karl, Michael Spindelegger, Maria Fekter, Karlheinz Töchterle, Johanna Mikl-Leitner

Niki Berlakovich will stay on as Minister for Agriculture.

Reinhold Mitterlehner will stay on as Minister for Economy.

Wolfgang Waldner is the new Secretary of State of Foreign Affairs - to assist Spindelegger as Foreign Minister.

Johannes Rauch will replace Fritz Kaltenegger as General Secretary of the ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

The first polls are out after the new ÖVP cabinet was sworn in yesterday by President Fischer.

Gallup/Ö24 (800 people questioned yesterday and Wednesday)

27% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
22% ÖVP
15% Greens
  6% BZÖ
  4% Others

Do you approve or disapprove of the new ÖVP cabinet ?

29% Approve
32% Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the decision to make 24-year old Sebastian Kurz Secretary of State for Immigration & Integration matters ?

29% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-32-sind-gegen-neues-OeVP-Team/25529091

OGM/Kurier

Do you approve or disapprove of the new ÖVP cabinet ?

37% Approve
39% Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the decision to make 24-year old Sebastian Kurz Secretary of State for Immigration & Integration matters ?

28% Approve
49% Disapprove

People below 30 years are slightly approving of the decision, while people older than 50 strongly oppose Kurz with more than 60%.

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/2093856.php

...

I don't know really what to think of Kurz, in the past he had some more or less positive proposals like Imams should have to pray in German when they are holding sermons in Austrian mosques, but he also had bad ideas like driving around Vienna in a Hummer called "Geilomobil" before the Vienna state elections, in which the ÖVP suffered their worst loss ever. But let's wait and see what he does ...

On the other hand I´m rather happy with the appointment of Karlheinz Töchterle to Minister of Science and Research. Töchterle is a former Green Party member from Tyrol and also Dean of the University of Innsbruck. He favors the introduction of socially equated tuition fees, which means that parents of wealthy Austrian and foreign students have to pay them, while poor Austrian students won't. This is also what I think is best to keep the mostly (German) students away from our universities, because they are becoming to crowded and underfunded.

[Tender Branson]

A picture of the swearing-in yesterday with President Heinz Fischer in the middle, Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ) on the left and Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP) on the right.

[Tender Branson]

New Standard/Market poll:

27% SPÖ
24% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
13% Greens
  6% BZÖ
  6% Others

Direct vote for Chancellor:

30% Faymann (SPÖ)
15% Strache (FPÖ)
15% Spindelegger (ÖVP)
  8% Glawischnig (Greens)

http://derstandard.at/1303291283614/Koalition-stabilisiert-sich-in-Umfrage

[Tender Branson]

Poll shows Catholic Austria trusts Dalai Lama over pope - and distrusts Muslim, Jewish leaders

VIENNA — A poll of Austrians suggests that most people in the overwhelmingly Catholic nation trust the Dalai Lama over the pope or their own bishops.

The telephone survey of 503 respondents shows 38 per cent saying they trust the Dalai Lama the most. Pope Benedict XVI is named by 8 per cent. Austrian Cardinal Christopher Schoenborn polls the highest among Catholic dignitaries with 10 per cent.

Of those surveyed, 42 per cent said they placed the least trust in Austrian Muslim leader Anas Schakfeh, while 35 per cent named Ariel Muzikant, the head of Austrian's Jewish community.

Pollster Wolfgang Bachmayer said Friday the results show that trust in religious leaders is determined "much more by familiarity and media image" than by denomination.

The APA-OGM poll has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5h5y0WE1NgGAKxe_zCo-fzb2D2HgQ?docId=6639835

[Tender Branson]

New Spectra poll for Upper Austria:

27% SPÖ
27% ÖVP
22% FPÖ
16% Greens
  5% BZÖ
  3% Others (KPÖ, etc.)

(state elections)

45% ÖVP
21% SPÖ
18% FPÖ
14% Greens
  2% Others (BZÖ, KPÖ)

[Tender Branson]

Mostly good news to report today:

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And:

Austria's government also decided yesterday to reform the postal voting law and made it similar to the one in Germany.

Currently it was allowed that postal votes could come in up to 1 week after the election, if the voter has certified with his signature on the postal ballot that he filled out the ballot before polls closed on Election Day.

But because this couldn't be verified, they now changed the law, so that the postal ballots have to arrive by at least 5pm on election day to be valid, which is the time when polls close in all Austrian towns.

I don't know why they even introduced this stupid law in the first place if noone can verify if a voter cast his vote after the exit poll ...

[Tender Branson]

New Vorarlberg state elections poll:



Direct vote for Governor:



Preferred successor for Gov. Sausgruber (ÖVP):



http://www.vol.at/sonntagsfrage-absolute-fuer-sausgruber-in-vorarlberg-waere-weg/news-20110430-11100224

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll:



The political picture is relatively stable right now when it comes to polls.

Gallup also estimates the seats and it finds that the SPÖVP coalition would lose its parliamentary majority now. They would get 91 seats now, but the opposition already has 92 seats.

[ZuWo]

The political picture is relatively stable right now when it comes to polls.

Gallup also estimates the seats and it finds that the SPÖVP coalition would lose its parliamentary majority now. They would get 91 seats now, but the opposition already has 92 seats.

Is it conceivable that a SPÖ/FPÖ coalition will be formed if there is no majority for a grand coalition? Is there any overlap at all between the two parties?

[Tender Branson]

The political picture is relatively stable right now when it comes to polls.

Gallup also estimates the seats and it finds that the SPÖVP coalition would lose its parliamentary majority now. They would get 91 seats now, but the opposition already has 92 seats.

Is it conceivable that a SPÖ/FPÖ coalition will be formed if there is no majority for a grand coalition? Is there any overlap at all between the two parties?

I don't think so. Not with Werner Faymann as SPÖ-boss, who has always spoken out against any form of coalition with the FPÖ.

It could change if Faymann steps down in the event that the SPÖ loses the 2013 election to the FPÖ and is replaced with a more-FPÖ friendly leader like Franz Voves.

But if the SPÖ would really be 2nd and the FPÖ first, I don't think they would enter a coalition with them as a junior partner, because the left wing would not allow this and would probably split from the party and form a new Left Party. I think in this case the SPÖ would enter a minority government with the ÖVP, that is backed by the Greens - or even a big SPÖ/ÖVP/Green coalition.

[Tender Branson]

New (well, not really, because it was conducted March 17 to April 22) IMAS poll:

28% SPÖ
25% ÖVP
23% FPÖ
13% Greens
  8% BZÖ
  3% Others

http://www.imas.at/content/download/659/3100/version/1/file/12-2011.pdf

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll:

[ZuWo]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll:

No big changes here ... looks like an interesing three-way race between the SPÖ, the FPÖ and the ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the newspaper "Der Standard":

27%  [-2] SPÖ
26% [+8] FPÖ
23%  [-3] ÖVP
14% [+4] Greens
  6%  [-5] BZÖ
  4%  [-2] Others

Historical trend:



Which parties should be in the next government:



http://derstandard.at/1304551315088/STANDARD-Umfrage-43-Prozent-wollen-die-FPOe-in-der-naechsten-Regierung

[Tender Branson]

New poll for the St. Pölten town council election on July 3 (the only important election this year):

Peter Hajek Public Opinion Strategies for the NÖN newspaper



http://www.noen.at/news/politik/Wahlen-Ein-Solo-fuer-Stadler;art150,45575

[Tender Branson]

Bilingual place-name signs controversy settled

Political leaders seem to have ended a lengthy argument considering bilingual place-name signs.

Negotiators announced in Klagenfurt yesterday evening (Tues) they agreed that 164 towns and communities in the province of Carinthia will be equipped with place-name signs in both German and Slovenian.

Provincial decision-makers and representatives of the Slovenian minority have been at odds over the issue for decades. Politicians have quarrelled about the number of affected towns ever since the Austrian State Treaty was agreed upon in 1955.

A low point was reached in 1972 when opponents of a decree by the federal government of Social Democratic (SPÖ) Chancellor Bruno Kreisky tore down several bilingual place-name signs.

Late Carinthian Freedom Party (FPÖ) and Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ) Governor Jörg Haider successfully tried to delay a settlement over the years by removing the affected signs by a few metres to make aware of legal loopholes.

Haider’s successor as governor of the province, Gerhard Dörfler refused to leave Haider’s uncooperative course after the right-wing spearhead’s death in 2008 before making a remarkable U-turn on the issue earlier this year.

"We carried the State Treaty’s requirement over the finish line today," Dörfler – who is the deputy head of the Carinthian Freedom Party (FPK) – said at the end of yesterday’s eight-hour Marathon session of negotiations with SPÖ State Secretary Josef Ostermayer and representatives of Carinthia’s Slovenes.

http://austrianindependent.com/news/Politics/2011-04-27/7314/Bilingual_place-name_signs_controversy_settled

The Carinthia Freedom Party (FPK) has now decided with their absolute majority in the state government that a all-mail-in-referendum about the issue will be held between June 6 and June 12.

Mail ballots will be sent to all Carinthia households in the next weeks and every citizen aged 16+ will be allowed to vote.

They have to mail back the ballots until June 17 and the results will be announced a few days later.

They decided to hold this referendum by mail, because it "only" costs 200.000€

Gov. Dörfler (FPK), Jörg Haider's successor, has already said that he expects the referendum to be approved by the voters and that he hopes 40% will participate.

Well, I also think that Carinthians will approve it, except if they are racists ...

[Tender Branson]

New Karmasin Motivforschung poll for the newspaper "Profil":

28% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
23% ÖVP
15% Greens
  4% BZÖ
  4% Others

Direct vote for Chancellor:

21% Faymann (SPÖ)
13% Strache (FPÖ)
12% Spindelegger (ÖVP)
  8% Glawischnig (Greens)

http://www.profil.at/articles/1119/560/296828/umfrage-spoe-fpoe-oevp-stelle

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for "Kurier", usually the best poll out there:

29% FPÖ
28% SPÖ
23% ÖVP
13% Greens
  5% BZÖ
  2% Others



Direct vote for Chancellor:

24% Faymann (SPÖ)
18% Spindelegger (ÖVP)
16% Strache (FPÖ)

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/2103786.php

[mileslunn]

New OGM poll for "Kurier", usually the best poll out there:

29% FPÖ
28% SPÖ
23% ÖVP
13% Greens
  5% BZÖ
  2% Others



Direct vote for Chancellor:

24% Faymann (SPÖ)
18% Spindelegger (ÖVP)
16% Strache (FPÖ)

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/2103786.php

Is it actually possible that either party would form a coalition with the FPO.  And likewise how would the EU react to this as they have always taken a strong stance against parties on the far right.