The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

Not much change in todays Gallup poll:



To reduce the budget deficit, Austrians most want to:

* tax wealthy with a capital of 1 Mio. € or more (75%)
* higher taxes on the 13th and 14th annual income for those earning 250K+ € a year (61%)
* sell Eurofighters to other countries (57%)

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Sonntag-kommt-Pensions-Paket/52012888

[Tender Branson]

New Carinthia poll (not really a good one, only 300 people polled by an institute I've never heard of before and they were also polling undecideds and non-voters):



16% are non-voters and 20% are undecided.

So, if we only count the decided voters, the results would be:

37.5% FPK
31.3% SPÖ
15.6% ÖVP
10.9% Greens
  4.7% BZÖ

FPK/ÖVP/BZÖ would lose about 8% combined compared with the 2009 elections.

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for Upper Austria:

45%  (-2) ÖVP
22%  (-3) SPÖ
17% (+2) FPÖ
13% (+4) Greens
  2%  (-1) BZÖ
  1%  (nc) Others (KPÖ, CPÖ)

58% ÖVP-Green government
42% Opposition parties

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/landespolitik/art383,795267

[Tender Branson]

New polls:

Karmasin Motivforschung for Profil (poll was conducted before the S&P downgrade)

29% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
25% ÖVP
14% Greens
  4% BZÖ
  2% Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120114_OTS0005/profil-umfrage-regierungsparteien-legen-zu

...

Oekonsult/RMA poll:



Which party do you think will have a good year 2012 ?

27.9% FPÖ

Which party do you think developed best in the year 2011 ?

30.7% FPÖ

Which party do you trust most to make the right decisions for Austria ?

30.1% FPÖ

Do you think things are going in the right or wrong direction in Austria ?

57% Right

Who do you think has the power in Austria ?

36.7% Companies
25.9% EU
16.9% Politicians
14.5% Media
  5.8% Citizens

http://www.oekonsult.eu/RMA_OEKONSULT_HOFER_11jan2012.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Not much change in the weekly Gallup poll:



Greens gaining a bit, BZÖ losing a bit.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Politbarometer-Regierung-erholt-sich/52816912

[Tender Branson]

New Styria state elections poll by Gallup, conducted for the state ÖVP:

36% SPÖ
34% ÖVP
15% FPÖ
  8% Greens
  7% Others (KPÖ, BZÖ, CPÖ)

[Sibboleth]

I wouldn't have leaked that internal I've I were them.

[Tender Branson]

I wouldn't have leaked that internal I've I were them.

Doesn't really matter because the next elections are in 2015 ...

[You kip if you want to...]

A decent majority believe that Austria's heading in the right direction, yet FPO leads on indictators for doing what's best for Austria? Troll country.

[Vasall des Midas]

Troll country.

Finally a good, useful, two word summary of Austria.

[Tender Branson]

A decent majority believe that Austria's heading in the right direction, yet FPO leads on indictators for doing what's best for Austria? Troll country.

Like in the US with the Tea Party folks, the FPÖ/BZÖ-people are those who say the country is on the wrong track. ÖVP/Green and the well-off-part of the SPÖ-voters think the country is on a good track.

Also: Only FPÖ/BZÖ voters think the FPÖ provides good solutions for the country, while 70% choose other parties. That's why you shouldn't judge the country because of what just 3 in 10 voters have to say.

[Tender Branson]

New poll by the accurate OGM institute for the Kurier and Heute newspapers:



Vote for Chancellor:



"Heute" reports that Eva Glawischnig (Greens) gets 7% in the Chancellor vote, while BZÖ-leader Josef Bucher has 4%. "Someone else" is preferred by 19% and 16% are undecided.

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/4482588-blau-zieht-gleich-mit-rot-oevp-stuerzt-ab.php

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,652395

[Tender Branson]

Gallup/Ö24:

28%  [-1] SPÖ
27% [+9] FPÖ
24%  [-2] ÖVP
13% [+3] Greens
  5%  [-6] BZÖ
  3%  [-3] Others

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Neueste-Werte-SP-vorne-VP-legt-zu/54344255

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-FPÖ coalition option unaffected by 'New Jews' quote

Leading People’s Party (ÖVP) representatives have refused to rule out forming a coalition with the Freedom Party (FPÖ) after the coming election - despite disputed statements by the right-wing party’s chairman.

FPÖ chief Heinz-Christian Strache allegedly compared the suffering of the Jewish community in Germany and Austria during World War Two (WWII) to what visitors of last Friday’s Viennese Corporations Ball had to go through. He was also quoted as describing members of his party as "the new Jews".

Strache denied that he created direct comparisons between the Jews of the 1930s and 1940s and FPÖ supporters but underlined that he debated what occurred outside Hofburg Palace "under the influence of what I have been told by many people."

The politician, who became chairman of the FPÖ in 2005, said many crying women told him they were beaten by protesters outside the venue of the event which is widely seen as a gathering of Europe’s right-wing extremist elite and far-right student fraternities. Five policemen, three guests of the ball and one protester were slightly injured in the altercations of that night.

Strache – a member of Viennese student fraternity Vandalia – said on Tuesday that late FPÖ chief Jörg Haider once spoke about "the new Jews". Strache claimed he mentioned it during a private conversation at the ball. However, a journalist who made the statements public denied that Strache referred to Haider in the chat. It is unclear whether the reporter secretly listened to the discussion or participated in it after claiming to be a voter of the FPÖ.

Now Andreas Khol said Strache disqualified himself from becoming Austrian chancellor or vice chancellor one day. The ÖVP member and former parliament speaker also told Die Presse today (Thurs) that the Corporations Ball controversy did not rule out a possible future cooperation between Strache’s party and his faction.

ÖVP chief Michael Spindelegger appealed to Strache to apologise. However, both Spindelegger and his party’s general secretary, Hannes Rauch, also pointed out that coalitions were an essential aspect of democracies.

The SPÖ said Strache’s statements were "absurd" while the Greens announced he "disqualified himself as a politician a long time ago." SPÖ Chancellor Werner Faymann said yesterday he felt confirmed in his strict no to a future partnership with the FPÖ. Faymann’s faction teamed up with the FPÖ for three years in the 1980s. At that time, liberal forces had the upper hand in the party which had got closer to the right-wing spectrum ever since.

http://austrianindependent.com/news/Politics/2012-02-02/10143/%D6VP-FP%D6_coalition_option_unaffected_by_%27New_Jews%27_quote

[Tender Branson]

Strache's "We are the new Jews" is not liked by the Austrians, says a new Gallup poll:

29% (+1) SPÖ
25% (+1) ÖVP
24%  (-3) FPÖ
14% (+1) Greens
  4%  (-1) BZÖ

Direct vote for Chancellor:

26% (+2) Faymann (SPÖ)
18% (+2) Spindelegger (ÖVP)
11%  (-5) Strache (FPÖ)

Do you want H.C. Strache to step down as FPÖ leader ?

51% Yes
33% No

Do you think it was the right or wrong decision by President Heinz Fischer to revoke the planned awarding of an Austrian honorary medal of the Republic for Strache ?

70% Right
17% Wrong

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FPOe-stuerzt-in-Sonntagsfrage-ab/55137543

...

Kind of similar to the FPÖ's drop in the polls after Pres. candidate Barbara Rosenkranz's statements of gas chambers and the attacks by Breivik in Norway. Don't think it will last very long, in a few weeks the FPÖ should be back at their usual 27/28% again, especially with the planned spending cuts/tax increase package that will be unveiled at the end of February ...

[RedPrometheus]

Strache's "We are the new Jews" is not liked by the Austrians, says a new Gallup poll:

29% (+1) SPÖ
25% (+1) ÖVP
24%  (-3) FPÖ
14% (+1) Greens
  4%  (-1) BZÖ

Direct vote for Chancellor:

26% (+2) Faymann (SPÖ)
18% (+2) Spindelegger (ÖVP)
11%  (-5) Strache (FPÖ)

Do you want H.C. Strache to step down as FPÖ leader ?

51% Yes
33% No

Do you think it was the right or wrong decision by President Heinz Fischer to revoke the planned awarding of an Austrian honorary medal of the Republic for Strache ?

70% Right
17% Wrong


...

Kind of similar to the FPÖ's drop in the polls after Pres. candidate Barbara Rosenkranz's statements of gas chambers and the attacks by Breivik in Norway. Don't think it will last very long, in a few weeks the FPÖ should be back at their usual 27/28% again, especially with the planned spending cuts/tax increase package that will be unveiled at the end of February ...

That's at least a bright spot. I hope the left will gain some momentum before the next election. A chancellor Strache would definitly be a disaster.

[Tender Branson]

Strache's "We are the new Jews" is not liked by the Austrians, says a new Gallup poll:

29% (+1) SPÖ
25% (+1) ÖVP
24%  (-3) FPÖ
14% (+1) Greens
  4%  (-1) BZÖ

Direct vote for Chancellor:

26% (+2) Faymann (SPÖ)
18% (+2) Spindelegger (ÖVP)
11%  (-5) Strache (FPÖ)

Do you want H.C. Strache to step down as FPÖ leader ?

51% Yes
33% No

Do you think it was the right or wrong decision by President Heinz Fischer to revoke the planned awarding of an Austrian honorary medal of the Republic for Strache ?

70% Right
17% Wrong


...

Kind of similar to the FPÖ's drop in the polls after Pres. candidate Barbara Rosenkranz's statements of gas chambers and the attacks by Breivik in Norway. Don't think it will last very long, in a few weeks the FPÖ should be back at their usual 27/28% again, especially with the planned spending cuts/tax increase package that will be unveiled at the end of February ...

That's at least a bright spot. I hope the left will gain some momentum before the next election. A chancellor Strache would definitly be a disaster.

Hallo, RedPrometheus



Bist du aus Deutschland ? Wenn ja, woher denn genau ?

Ich freu mich immer, wenn neue deutschsprachige Mitglieder dazukommen und sich meinen Thread hier ansehen. Wennst willst, kannst ja auch deinen Senf dazuposten ...

PS: Ja, Strache als Kanzler wäre wohl der absolute Super-GAU. Aber es sieht danach aus, als wirds nicht dazu kommen. UHBP (Unser Herr Bundespräsident) Fischer wird einen Strache mit seinen Ansichten (und die seiner Partei) wohl nie und nimmer angeloben. Und sollte die FPÖ 2013 siegen, werden sich SPÖ oder ÖVP nicht in eine FPÖ-Knechtschaft begeben. Die würden eher wieder eine Große Koalition eingehen. Also, kann zwar im Laufe des Wahlkampfs noch viel passieren, aber ich glaube die in Österreich hass-geliebte GROKO aus SPÖVP wird weiter Bestand haben, auch nach 2013.

[Tender Branson]

Big deal in the next weeks will be the unveiling of a big spending cuts/tax increase package by the government and the political fallout. I have already posted this elsewhere, but I want it here too:

Congratulations! I wish Austria well going forward this is a very big deal!

It's not THAT big of a deal, because it turned out that the Opposition (FPÖ/Greens/BZÖ) blocked all efforts to pass a constitutional balanced budget amendment + 60% debt cap.

And because SPÖVP didn't have the necessary 2/3 majority for a constitutional change, they just passed a simple law. That's why I changed the thread title ...

But:

It seems the SPÖVP government can actually get budget-balancing things done, even without a CBBA. They are currently finishing their talks about a 26-30 billion € spending cut/tax increase package that will be unveiled in the next weeks. This package will run until 2016 and consolidate the Austrian budget by roughly 5-6 billion € each year, so that the country will have no deficit by 2016 or 2017. Newspaper reports suggest the final deal will be made up of about 70% spending cuts and 30% tax increases. But it could also end up 75/25, because the ÖVP wants more spending cuts rather than tax increases.

Both parties have taken a look at areas that will not hurt the broader middle class and cripple the solid economy. So the major consolidation areas will be:

* Pensions: reform of pension entry ages, real entry age will steadily raised to 65 from an average 58 years (Austrians are record-holders in early retirement, due to the historically strong pension representatives in the "old parties" SPÖ and ÖVP). Early retirement for women (60) will steadily be phased out and be tied to the men's age of 65. Early retirement for physically damaged people (due to accidents, sickness, etc.) will be heavily restricted, so that people stay longer in the work process (you need at least 15 years of work to apply and then you have heavy deductions). A new "corridor-pension" will also be introduced: People aged 62+ with at least 37,5 insurance years can apply for this system in which they have to pay deductions of 4,2% annually until they are 65. Social Security payments will be raised by 0,5% annually for all (?) pensions, but SPÖVP have said a good deal will be invested in future care for seniors. This should save about 8 billion € until 2016.

* Bureaucrats: Freeze in new hirings, but no firings. Administrative reforms such as merging county courts etc. Should save about 2,7 billion €

* ÖBB (state rail): 1,4 billions in savings, due to a review of much-needed infrastructure projects and an end of early retirements for their employees.

* Health Care/Hospitals/ELGA: 1,8 billions in savings due to reforms in this sector, introduction of ELGA (Electronic Health Report System) which makes it easier to share information between doctors, hospitals, emergency personnell etc.

* Subsidies/Social Transfers: Will be cut by about 800 million $, mainly agriculture etc.

* States/Cities: will consolidate their budgets by about 5,2 billion €

* New Taxes: at least 7 billion € in new taxes, primarily focused on the Rich: real estate sales tax, higher taxes for high-income earners, reform in group-taxing

http://derstandard.at/1328507151900/Da-wird-gespart-Die-grossen-Brocken

Later more, if the package is unveiled ...

[Tender Branson]

New Profil poll (conducted before the budget-consolidation package yesterday):

30% SPÖ
24% ÖVP
24% FPÖ
13% Greens
  4% BZÖ
  5% Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120211_OTS0006/profil-umfrage-spoe-legt-zu-fpoe-verliert

[Tender Branson]

Austria Agrees on 26.5 Billion Euros of Budget Cuts by 2016

By Zoe Schneeweiss

Austria’s government agreed on pension and spending cuts and tax increases that will cut the Alpine republic’s deficit an accumulated 26.5 billion euros ($35 billion) by 2016.

“We will have a balanced budget again in 2016,” Chancellor Werner Faymann, who leads the coalition government of Social Democrats and the pro-business People’s Party, said at a press conference in Vienna, broadcast live in Austrian state television ORF. About 76 percent of that is due to cuts, while 24 percent is because of new or increased taxes.

Austria, which lost its AAA rating at Standard & Poor’s last month, is aiming to narrow its deficit to comply with balanced-budget rules agreed among euro-area leaders last month. The country’s budget deficit will fall to 0.6 percent of gross domestic product by 2016, from 3.1 percent last year, according to the plan. Debt, which amounted to 72.2 percent of GDP in 2011, will widen to 75.4 percent in 2014 before narrowing to 71 percent in 2016.

Finance Minister Maria Fekter told Austria Press Agency that she hopes the measures will allow Austria to regain its AAA rating at S&P.

The plan includes 7.26 billion euros of savings because of stricter rules for early retirement and lower pensions, about 2.5 billion euros saved on pay and hiring freezes for civil servants and about 440 million-euro tax surcharge for top earners. Additional measures include lower investments in infrastructure, health care and at the state-owned railway company, an end to double subsidies from regional and federal agencies and closing tax loopholes including an exemptions for real estate gains and tax benefits for gasoline acquired by farmers.

The measures also include potential revenue of a tax on financial transactions within the European Union as of 2014 and taxes on undeclared Austrian funds in Swiss accounts, which should be levied on the basis of a treaty that still needs to be agreed on with Switzerland.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-10/austrian-government-agrees-on-26-7-billion-euros-of-cuts-by-2016.html

...

There's also a first OGM poll out about the budget consolidation package:



50% say that they will be "strongly affected" by the package
53% say that the package is not balanced enough to affect all groups equally
73% say there will be another consolidation package before 2016

The goals of which party were mostly achieved in the package ?

45% ÖVP
19% SPÖ

The rise in pensions will be about 1% lower than the inflation rate in 2013/14. Do you think this is OK ?

38% Yes
54% No

There will be no pay rise for civil servants in 2013 and only a moderate rise in 2014. Do you think this is OK ?

72% Yes
21% No

There will be a hiring freeze of civil servants, except in the areas of Justice, Police and Teachers.  Do you think this is OK ?

68% Yes
24% No

High-income earners (those earning more than 180.000€ a year) will have to pay a temporary solidarity tax between 3% and 6%. Do you think this is OK ?

85% Yes
  9% No

[Tender Branson]

New Karmasin/TT poll for the only "important" (LOL) election this year in Austria.

INNSBRUCK CITY COUNCIL & MAYOR:

25% FI (center/liberal)
21% Greens (eco/left)
17% ÖVP (center-right)
16% SPÖ (center-left)
10% LRF (far right)
  7% FPÖ (far right)
  3% TSB (center)
  1% KPÖ (far left)

Direct vote for Mayor:

57% Christine Oppitz-Plörer (FI-Incumbent)

The election will be held on April 15.

http://www.tt.com/csp/cms/sites/tt/%C3%9Cberblick/Politik/PolitikTirol/4296812-6/fi-im-hoch-konkurrenz-schw%C3%A4chelt.csp

[Tender Branson]

New poll for Austria's Utah (Vorarlberg):

44% ÖVP
26% FPÖ
13% Greens
13% SPÖ
  2% BZÖ
  2% Others

http://www.vol.at/lt-wahlen-am-sonntag-oevp-wuerde-absolute-mehrheit-klar-verlieren/3169890

[Colbert]

Austria's Utah (Vorarlberg)

loool

[Leftbehind]

LRF? I don't recognise that acronym.

[Tender Branson]

LRF? I don't recognise that acronym.

Liste Rudi Federspiel

Local former FPÖ dude who's running with his own right-wing list.