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| | |-+  The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Austrian Presidential Election ?
Heinz Fischer (Incumbent-SP/IND)   -41 (56.9%)
Barbara Rosenkranz (FP)   -25 (34.7%)
Other candidate (please post)   -2 (2.8%)
Invalid   -4 (5.6%)
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Total Voters: 71

Author Topic: The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...  (Read 111761 times)
MaxQue
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« Reply #750 on: February 17, 2012, 01:31:55 am »
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Federspiel is a family name or a word?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #751 on: February 17, 2012, 01:35:56 am »
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Federspiel is a family name or a word?

It's his real last name.

In English, something like "feather game".
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« Reply #752 on: February 17, 2012, 01:40:58 am »
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LRF? I don't recognise that acronym.

Liste Rudi Federspiel

Local former FP dude who's running with his own right-wing list.

http://www.rudi-federspiel.at/2012/home/team
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #753 on: February 17, 2012, 09:30:16 am »
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Federspiel is a family name or a word?

It's his real last name.

In English, something like "feather game".

Cockfighting?
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #754 on: February 17, 2012, 09:57:45 am »
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Federspiel is a family name or a word?

It's his real last name.

In English, something like "feather game".

Cockfighting?

Yes, one FP-cock fights the other. I like when the FP is splintered and fighting.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #755 on: February 19, 2012, 07:27:04 am »
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First Gallup/24 poll after the BCP:

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #756 on: February 19, 2012, 08:11:46 am »
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Because the BZ is below the 4% treshold, there are only 3 coalitions possible now:

* SPVP
* FP-VP or VP-FP
* SP-FP
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Colbert
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« Reply #757 on: February 21, 2012, 10:43:31 pm »
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is there in austria some FPO/SPO coalition (on lander, city, or other)?

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #758 on: February 22, 2012, 02:35:40 am »
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is there in austria some FPO/SPO coalition (on lander, city, or other)?

At least not in the states.

There are 2500 cities/towns in Austria, so I have no clue if there's a SP-FP coalition anywhere.

Probably not, or only in some small towns nobody cares about.
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« Reply #759 on: February 22, 2012, 02:44:46 am »
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Strache's "We are the new Jews" is not liked by the Austrians, says a new Gallup poll:

...

Kind of similar to the FP's drop in the polls after Pres. candidate Barbara Rosenkranz's statements of gas chambers and the attacks by Breivik in Norway. Don't think it will last very long, in a few weeks the FP should be back at their usual 27/28% again, especially with the planned spending cuts/tax increase package that will be unveiled at the end of February ...

Here we are, 3 weeks later, and the FP is back to 27% according to the new "Standard" poll:

28% SP
27% FP
24% VP
16% Greens
  4% BZ
  1% Others

http://derstandard.at/1329703258346/Meinungsumfrage-OeVP-hat-sich-durchgesetzt---und-zahlt-die-Rechnung
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« Reply #760 on: February 25, 2012, 07:01:42 am »
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New "Profil" poll regarding the planned start of "Hydraulic Fracking" in Lower Austria by the main Austrian Oil and Gas company OMV:

36% favor
39% oppose
25% have no opinion

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120225_OTS0008/profil-umfrage-befuerworter-und-gegner-der-schiefergasfoerderung-im-weinviertel-gleichauf

In Lower Austria, the OMV has found huge gas reserves, worth 30 years of Austria's annual gas demand.

The Greens have already spoken out against the project, even though the OMV has said that they will only use "clean fracking" in the future.

"Clean Fracking" means that, instead of aquifier-damaging chemicals, natural products like cornstarch would be used to fracture the rock layers and to extract the gas.

Currently, the VP-held state government of Lower Austria has put the plans on hold, but the VP-led Austrian Ministry of Economy will have the final say in that matter. And I guess that because of the pressure from Green groups and concerned citizens, they will only allow the OMV to frack by using "clean fracking" technology.
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« Reply #761 on: February 25, 2012, 07:11:55 am »
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A big reason why the VP is against allowing Hydro-Fracking in Lower Austria right now:

In early 2013, state elections will be held in Lower Austria and the VP there has to defend their absolute majority from 2008. And the VP doesn't need angry (usually VP voting) citizens in the area where the fracking should take place.

But the OMV is also the biggest taxpayer in Austria and one of the most profitable companies in the country, providing tons of jobs etc., so the VP cannot be against it forever.

We'll probably see the VP-led Ministry of Economy to okay Hydro-Fracking in the summer of 2013, after the Lower Austria election is fought - but before the 2013 Austrian Parliament election takes place.

In this case, everyone should be happy: The Lower Austria VP, because they have avoided the issue during the election campaign, the Greens, because they get their clean fracking and the OMV, because they get their gas and the citizens because they get new jobs.
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« Reply #762 on: February 25, 2012, 07:40:32 am »
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The city (Poysdorf) where the huge gas reserves where found and where the OMV wants to start the Hydro-Fracking, was about 74% VP and 7% FP in the last state election in 2008. In the last parliamentary election the VP got about 50%, FP/BZ/CP another 25%.

http://wahl08.bmi.gv.at/gm_31644.htm

The whole region north of Vienna is very conservative, so you can see why the VP is very cautious in allowing hydrofracking this year. They have a lot to lose.
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« Reply #763 on: February 26, 2012, 03:17:12 am »
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Weekly 24/Gallup poll:



FP seems to have recovered quite quickly from Strache's "Jews" quote.

24 also reports that Strache has been invited by Rick Santorum for a meeting later this year.

And they report that the SPVP government could strategically call for early elections already in the fall of this year or in the spring of next year - instead of the regular date in the fall of 2013.

Strategically, because the SP thinks it could run an election campaign based on wealth taxes and the VP because of a tax system overhaul and because they think that Strache's FP has now peaked and that Strache can be portrayed as "having no clue or solutions for economic matters".

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/daniel/Politik-Insider-Warum-Regierung-schon-bald-waehlen-lassen-will/57591173
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« Reply #764 on: February 26, 2012, 03:28:14 am »
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As you can see, the Gallup poll from today shows almost the same result like the actual election in 2008, just with 2 small differences:

* The BZ-vote has gone from 11% to 3%, and these 8% have gone to the FP.
* The Greens went from 10% to 13%.

But the SP has exactly the 29% like in 2008 and the VP has also their 26% from 2008.

The Greens probably gained from the 6% who voted for "other" parties in 2008 (mainly the LIF and FRITZ).
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Colbert
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« Reply #765 on: February 27, 2012, 05:09:19 am »
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As you can see, the Gallup poll from today shows almost the same result like the actual election in 2008, just with 2 small differences:

* The BZ-vote has gone from 11% to 3%, and these 8% have gone to the FP.
* The Greens went from 10% to 13%.

But the SP has exactly the 29% like in 2008 and the VP has also their 26% from 2008.

The Greens probably gained from the 6% who voted for "other" parties in 2008 (mainly the LIF and FRITZ).



quite boring, the Austrian electoral scene, no ?


I prefer spectacular changes, like PASOK fall or GOP primary race (smiley with tongue)
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« Reply #766 on: February 28, 2012, 01:39:18 pm »
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As you can see, the Gallup poll from today shows almost the same result like the actual election in 2008, just with 2 small differences:

* The BZ-vote has gone from 11% to 3%, and these 8% have gone to the FP.
* The Greens went from 10% to 13%.

But the SP has exactly the 29% like in 2008 and the VP has also their 26% from 2008.

The Greens probably gained from the 6% who voted for "other" parties in 2008 (mainly the LIF and FRITZ).



quite boring, the Austrian electoral scene, no ?


I prefer spectacular changes, like PASOK fall or GOP primary race (smiley with tongue)

Sometimes yes, sometimes no. I'd like an election this year too, not next year.

2012 is very boring when it comes to elections here. No state elections either.

It would be better if the Bundesrat would be transformed into some kind of Senate with 50 members that are directly elected in 50 Austrian "Senate districts". But that won't happen.
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« Reply #767 on: March 04, 2012, 06:09:44 am »
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Only a new Innsbruck poll this week:

27% FI
22% Greens
15% SP
15% VP
10% FP
10% LRF
  1% TSB
  0% KP
  0% Pirates

http://www.tt.com/csp/cms/sites/tt/Nachrichten/4404190-2/b%C3%BCrgermeisterin-allein-auf-weiter-flur.csp
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« Reply #768 on: March 10, 2012, 03:38:17 am »
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2 new polls out today.

24/Gallup:

29% SP
27% FP
25% VP
13% Greens
  3% BZ
  3% Others

Direct vote for Chancellor:

24% Faymann (SP)
18% Spindelegger (VP)
14% Strache (FP)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120310_OTS0012/oesterreich-umfrage-spoe-bleibt-auf-platz-1-fpoe-legt-zu-oevp-verliert

Profil/Karmasin Motivforschung

29% SP
26% FP
24% VP
14% Greens
  3% BZ
  4% Others

Direct vote for Chancellor:

19% Faymann (SP)
14% Spindelegger (VP)
13% Strache (FP)
  5% Glawischnig (Greens)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120310_OTS0005/profil-umfrage-regierungsparteien-stagnieren-fpoe-wieder-auf-platz-zwei
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« Reply #769 on: March 10, 2012, 04:25:43 am »
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New Spectra poll for Upper Austria:

State elections

45% VP (-2)
22% SP (-3)
19% FP (+4)
10% Greens (+1)
  4% Others (nc)

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/landespolitik/art383,834502

Federal elections

28% SP (-3)
24% VP (-3)
23% FP (+4)
12% Greens (+2)
  8% BZ (-1)
  5% Others (+1)

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/innenpolitik/art385,835270,B

...

New Salzburg state elections poll by IGF in todays Kronen Zeitung newspaper (sample=513):

38% SP (-1)
35% VP (-2)
16% FP (+3)
  9% Greens (+2)
  2% Others (-2)
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« Reply #770 on: March 10, 2012, 08:08:27 am »
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I was bored, so I created a map of all recent Austrian state elections by county and winning party and its share:



Grey = VP (6 shades: 20-30%, 30-40%, 40-50%, 50-60%, 60-70%, 70-80%)
Red = SP (3 shades: 30-40%, 40-50%, 50-60%)
Orange = BZ (3 shades: 30-40%, 40-50%, 50-60%)

Innsbruck City is the only county with 20-30% for the VP, even though Tamsweg looks like 20-30% too, but it's actually the colour for 30-40% ... probably an optic effect Tongue

Zwettl is the only 70% or more VP county.

2 districts in Carinthia (Wolfsberg and Feldkirchen) are 50-60% for the BZ.

I'm in the 40% SP-coloured district of ZE.
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« Reply #771 on: March 10, 2012, 06:43:44 pm »
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Is there a reason why the SP does well in rural Salzburg?
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« Reply #772 on: March 11, 2012, 03:01:06 am »
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Is there a reason why the SP does well in rural Salzburg?

There are mostly 2 reasons I guess:

* One reason is called Governor Gabriele Burgstaller, who is a more business-friendly, not-your-average SP-hack common-sense Governor with VP roots in her family herself. She covers a wide field of potential voters: business people who usually vote VP, the base voters, young people, usual FP-blue collar voters and Green voters.

* Rural Salzburg's economy has grown relatively fast in the past 8 years thanks to the state government's policies and investments into rural areas. Tourism is booming, employment rises by 3% annually, unemployment is the lowest in all of Austria, people are considerably well off even by Austrian standards (which are already high in EU standards).
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« Reply #773 on: March 11, 2012, 08:14:36 am »

There certainly is a demographic reason to it as well. Such stuff doesn't usually happen without there being a demographic reason to it.
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« Reply #774 on: March 11, 2012, 09:57:22 am »
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There certainly is a demographic reason to it as well. Such stuff doesn't usually happen without there being a demographic reason to it.

Not sure if that's a factor.

Rural Salzburg is demographically not much different from let's say Tirol or Upper Austria, and these regions are strongly VP. The regions of Tirol and Upper Austria are also not wealthier than Salzburg, though wealthier than the Austrian average. The West in general is more wealthier, with Carinthia, Burgenland and Styria being on the lower end.
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