The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

Strache at the final FPÖ campaign event in Innsbruck:

Strache verteidigt rassistischen Slogan und will "anständige Leute"

Auch Strache konnte sich einen Seitenhieb auf Oppitz-Plörer und ihre zum Teil in türkischer Sprache affichierte Wahlwerbung nicht verhalten. "Ich weiß nicht, ob ich in Izmir oder in Innsbruck bin", meinte er und erntete Applaus. Er verteidigte erneut die mit der Aufschrift "Heimatliebe statt Marokkaner-Diebe" heftig kritisierten und schließlich abmontierten Wahlplakate der Innsbrucker FPÖ. "Niemand von uns ist ein Ausländerfeind, wir wollen anständige Leute", erklärte er.

"Deutsche Landessprache beherrschen"

Jeder anständige Zuwanderer habe früher oder später das Recht, die österreichische Staatsbürgerschaft zu bekommen. Dafür müsse er aber die deutsche Landessprache beherrschen, einen Arbeitsplatz haben und fleißig sein.

Do you see the irony ?

Hint: Take a look at the poster behind Strache ...

[Tender Branson]

Hehe:





90 minutes to go. Then we can see how well the Pirates did with their 3000€ budget ...

[Tender Branson]

20 minutes until the first results. I'm hoping for an epic fail result for the FPÖ (well, the FPÖ has always been epic fail in Innsbruck, so the question is only if they get more or less than 10%).

[Tender Branson]

4 of 152 Sprengel already counted (2,63% of the votes):



Platzgummer (ÖVP) leads Oppitz-Plörer (FI) by 1 vote for Mayor ...

http://wahlen.innsbruck.gv.at

[Tender Branson]

It looks that out of the first 4 precincts, 3 are retirement home precincts.

Thats why the Greens suck right now ...

[Tender Branson]

Also, turnout seems to be really crappy, in the lower 40s.

[Tender Branson]

2 precincts are in a Mormon Church ...

[Tender Branson]

About 2/3 of the vote in now:

ÖVP and FI are still fighting for 1st place.

The Greens are now at their 2006 level, which would again be their best result in Innsbruck.

The 14.6% for the SPÖ would not be their worst result, they got 11.7% in 2000.

The FPÖ continues to suck (8% is way below the 13% they got in 1989 and 1994).

The Pirates will get 1 seat in the city council for the first time with a campaign budget of only 3000€.

[Tender Branson]

100% counted:



Seats:



Change compared with 2006:



Mayoral direct election:



http://wahlen.innsbruck.gv.at

Oppitz-Plörer (FI) and Platzgummer (ÖVP) will advance to a run-off in 2 weeks.

[Senator MaxQue]

That Pirate poster is great to learn colors in German.

[Tender Branson]

Also, turnout seems to be really crappy, in the lower 40s.

Final results (incl. postal votes) actually show turnout up to 52.3%, which is still the worst figure ever in Innsbruck and down by 5.5% compared with the 2006 elections.

Final result (incl. postal votes):

21.9% [+7.3] ÖVP (9 seats)
21.0%  [-5.8] FI (9 seats)
19.1% [+0.6] Greens (8 seats)
14.5%  [-5.2] SPÖ (6 seats)
  7.9%  [-1.5] LRF (3 seats)
  7.7% [+2.7] FPÖ (3 seats)
  3.8% [+3.8] Pirates (1 seat)
  2.7%  [-0.2] TSB (1 seat)
  1.4% [+0.5] KPÖ

[Tender Branson]

Here you can see that the FI and the ÖVP and also the TSB is in reality just "the ÖVP". Christine Oppitz-Plörer (FI) and Christoph Platzgummer (ÖVP) - which will head to the run-off - even held a joint post-election event together:





So, the 3 lists of the ÖVP actually got 46% yesterday.

[Tender Branson]

New "Heute" ("Today") newspaper poll:

27% FPÖ
27% SPÖ
23% ÖVP
13% Greens
  3% BZÖ
  7% Others (Pirates, KPÖ, CPÖ)

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,696631

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll shows the FPÖ pulling ahead again after months of being tied or second:



The news release says that the "Pirates" have 5% of the 6% who voted for "other parties".



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Strache-ist-schon-Erster/63650869

...

A new IMAS poll for the Kronen Zeitung shows a weak FPÖ:



This poll looks like a joke poll and total outlier. 7% for the BZÖ ? LOL.

http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Umfrage-Fiasko_fuer_die_FPOe_-_Platz_2_ist_weit_entfernt-Lebenszeichen_der_VP-Story-318953

[You kip if you want to...]

If the Pirates let the FPO become the largest party, will Pirate voters realise how innane their opinion is?

[Swedish Cheese]

If the Pirates let the FPO become the largest party, will Pirate voters realise how innane their opinion is?

I rather think most Pirate voters couldn't care less which party comes out on top.
If anything they might prefer FPÖ on top, after all the far-right and the pirates share the same demographic base, young working-class males who dislike/distrust the establishment.

[Tender Branson]

If the Pirates let the FPO become the largest party, will Pirate voters realise how innane their opinion is?

I rather think most Pirate voters couldn't care less which party comes out on top.
If anything they might prefer FPÖ on top, after all the far-right and the pirates share the same demographic base, young working-class males who dislike/distrust the establishment.

I don't think you can say that the Pirates will be responsible for the FPÖ winning.

A previous poll has shown that SPÖ, FPÖ and Greens would all lose about 3% each if the Pirates and a Frank Stronach party would run next year.

Because the Pirates are mostly a protest party, I even think that they would hurt the FPÖ the most during the election campaign.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll for Ö24 shows that the Pirates now have officially Parliamentary support:

27%  (-1) FPÖ
27%  (nc) SPÖ
22%  (nc) ÖVP
13%  (-1) Greens
  6% (+1) Pirates
  3%  (nc) BZÖ
  2% (+1) Others

Majority for FPÖVP and SPÖVP and FPÖ-SPÖ (totally unlikely though).

No majority for SPÖ-Greens-Pirates.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Piraten-Partei-schon-bei-sechs-Prozent-laut-OeSTERREICH-Umfrage/64347638

[Tender Branson]

PS:

Ö24 notes that the Pirate voters are made up mostly by voters who have not voted in 2008 (they account for about 50% of all Pirates) and former FPÖ, SPÖ, Green and BZÖ voters with about equal support. Only the ÖVP doesn't seem to lose voters to the Pirates, but the ÖVP is badly damaged anyway.

[Hashemite]

Pirates are cute, but they're pretty useless, so this Germanic Pirate-mania is becoming a bit stupid.

[Tender Branson]

Pirates are cute, but they're pretty useless, so this Germanic Pirate-mania is becoming a bit stupid.

Maybe the Pirate-mania will die off in the next year anyway and if not, they still have to collect 2600 signatures somehow to be on the ballot.

[Tender Branson]

Recent comments on FPÖ-leader Strache's Facebook site regarding a 15-year old Turkish arsonist who burned down the Catholic Dome in Wr. Neustadt incl. 1 million € of damage:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/niederoesterreich/Wiener-Neustadt-Feuerteufel-will-Dom-reparieren/63865026

[Tender Branson]

http://wahlen.innsbruck.gv.at

Oppitz-Plörer (FI) and Platzgummer (ÖVP) will advance to a run-off in 2 weeks.

With 100% counted once again, Christine Oppitz-Plörer wins the run-off with 56% of the vote and remains the Mayor of Innsbruck.

Before the run-off, she announced that she would seek a coalition between FI, Greens and either SPÖ or ÖVP, while ruling out any coalition that includes the FPÖ.

Platzgummer on the other hand said that he would also include the FPÖ in a coaliton.

Therefore, I'm quite happy with the result.

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" poll by Karmasin Motivforschung:

29% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
12% Greens
  2% BZÖ
  7% Others (Pirates, CPÖ, KPÖ, LIF (?), planned Stronach-party etc.)

You can clearly see that the FPÖ, Greens and BZÖ all lose votes to the Pirates, while the SPÖ and ÖVP remain mostly where they were.

Direct vote for Chancellor:

21% Faymann (SPÖ)
16% Spindelegger (ÖVP)
14% Strache (FPÖ)
  6% Glawischnig (Greens)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120505_OTS0003/profil-umfrage-volkspartei-legt-zu-freiheitliche-verlieren

Austrians also want the border checks back, according to the same poll:

70% favor the re-introduction of border and passport checks, like Sarkozy wants it
25% are opposed

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120505_OTS0008/profil-umfrage-grosse-mehrheit-fuer-wiedereinfuehrung-der-passkontrollen

Austrians are also against the SPÖ-proposal to limit the average working time of Austrians to 38,5 hours a week. Currently, the average Austrian works about 43 hours each week.

50% are opposed
41% support the proposal

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120505_OTS0005/profil-umfrage-haelfte-der-oesterreicher-glaubt-nicht-an-erfolg-des-transparenzpakets

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ is now clearly first in the new Gallup poll for Ö24:



Pirates now at 7%, which is their highest share ever.

FPÖ+Pirates+BZÖ are at 37% - which would be a new record for protest partys.

SPÖVP government (47%) is now without a majority (50% for FPÖ/Greens/Pirates/BZÖ).

It also looks like the Pirates are mostly gaining from the SPÖ, ÖVP, Greens and BZÖ - but not the FPÖ.

Approval Ratings for Austrian Party leaders:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FP-voran-Faymann-legt-zu/65833391