The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll:



28% SPÖ
27% FPÖ
23% ÖVP
14% Greens
  5% BZÖ
  3% Others

[Tender Branson]

New ATV/Peter Hajek Public Opinion Strategies poll:

[Tender Branson]

2 more polls today:

Karmasin Motivforschung for "Profil"

29% SPÖ
24% FPÖ
23% ÖVP
13% Greens
  4% BZÖ
  7% Others

Chancellor vote:

23% Faymann (SPÖ)
15% Spindelegger (ÖVP)
11% Strache (FPÖ)
  7% Glawischnig (Greens)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120630_OTS0004/profil-umfrage-volkspartei-faellt-wieder-auf-platz-drei

Gallup for "Ö24"

28% SPÖ
24% FPÖ
23% ÖVP
12% Greens
  7% Pirates
  3% BZÖ
  3% Others

Chancellor vote:

24% Faymann (SPÖ)
17% Spindelegger (ÖVP)
16% Strache (FPÖ)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120630_OTS0023/oesterreich-fpoe-wieder-platz-2-spoe-klar-vorn

[Tender Branson]

The ATV poll that I posted above also mentioned that currently only 6 in 10 Austrians were willing to declare support for a party in their poll.

The rest either said they were undecided, that they would vote invalid or not at all.

This is the lowest score ATV has ever measured in their polls. Could mean that turnout next year might drop quite a bit from the high 79% in the 2008 elections. But there's still 1 year to go and there are currently several corruption/lobbying scandals that are dealt with in parliamentary investigation committees that primarily involve former figures of the ÖVP/BZÖ/FPÖ (former Schüssel government). As you can see in the latest polls, the ÖVP, FPÖ and BZÖ have all seen better polling days before ...

SPÖ and Greens are unable to gain though.

The only "party" or better said group that's gaining ground are the Pirates.

Alltogether, 7-10% of Austrians would currently vote for other parties than those in parliament, a new record.

[Tender Branson]

It's official now: Austria will get a new center-right, pro-business party this year.

Frank Stronach, the Austrian-Canadian billionaire will sponsor it and he's currently looking for a front-runner in the 2013 elections here. Also, the name of the new party should be out by August and a party platform later. Currently, Stronach is in talks with former Magna manager Siegfried Wolf to lead the party in the 2013 elections.

It's primarily business-oriented (which will take away votes from BZÖ and ÖVP) and also euro-sceptic (taking votes away from the FPÖ).

Stronach's focus is on removing bureaucratic barriers in Austria, introducing a flat tax, introducing a constitutional deficit and debt brake and opposing the ESM.

http://www.news.at/articles/1227/8/333300/sronach-wirtschaftspartei

[Tender Branson]

Frank Stronach has already set up his "Frank Stronach Institute", which is a harbinger of the party platform:

http://www.stronachinstitut.at/english

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Хahar 🤔]

That "Chamber of Citizen Representatives" might be the worst idea ever.

[Tender Branson]

That "Chamber of Citizen Representatives" might be the worst idea ever.

Most of his ideas are and follow a neo-liberal agenda that eventually will only empower companies and managers and try to destroy unions and the middle class. Basically a new ÖVP, just that the ÖVP favors the ESM, while Stronach does not.

Still, I think he could get 5-15% next year.

Besides, Stronach had a really bizarre TV "interview" yesterday on the ORF, which was actually not an interview. The journalist had absolutely no chance to ask him a question, because Stronach immediately started a 10 minute long monologue, criticizing the ESM, how our politicians from SPÖVP and Greens are traitors and how Brussels gets too much power. Every time the ORF journalist wanted to ask him a question, he just said: "Let me finish my talk !" And then he left the room at the end of the interview.

http://tvthek.orf.at/programs/1211-ZIB-2/episodes/4274931-ZIB-2/4274937-Frank-Stronach-gegen-ESM

http://tvthek.orf.at/programs/1211-ZIB-2/episodes/4274931-ZIB-2/4274939-Studiogast--Frank-Stronach

[MaxQue]

Hopefully, his political career turns out as the one of his daughter...

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully, his political career turns out as the one of his daughter...

He's not running for office himself though. He's only providing the money and giving interviews.

Like Mitt Romney, he lets other people do the "real" jobs.

[MaxQue]

Hopefully, his political career turns out as the one of his daughter...

He's not running for office himself though. He's only providing the money and giving interviews.

Like Mitt Romney, he lets other people do the "real" jobs.

Well, we know who is leading the party in fact...

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully, his political career turns out as the one of his daughter...

He's not running for office himself though. He's only providing the money and giving interviews.

Like Mitt Romney, he lets other people do the "real" jobs.

Well, we know who is leading the party in fact...

Even though he's already 80, so it's probably OK that he let other people do the job ...

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll for Ö24, now including the Stronach party:

28% SPÖ
23% FPÖ
22% ÖVP
12% Greens
  5% Pirates
  4% Stronach Party
  3% BZÖ
  3% Others

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Stronach-Partei-kaeme-auf-vier-Prozent/71514172

[Tender Branson]

stornach party would belong to ECR group ?

This group needs to form first and then enter the Austrian Parliament. These are the most important things for them at the moment. If they succeed with that, they can think about running for the EU Parliament (but I'll doubt Stronach would even want this because of his dislike for the centralist power-hungry Brussels).

But yeah, the Stronach party would either belong to the ECR, the European People's Party, the (Neo)-Liberals or belong to no group at all.

[Tender Branson]

About 10 months until the next Tyrol state elections and there's a new TT/Karmasin poll:

41% ÖVP
15% FPÖ
15% SPÖ
14% Greens
  9% Dinkhauser List
  3% Pirates
  2% Gurgiser List
  1% BZÖ

http://www.tt.com/Tirol/5037737-2/42-prozent-sind-noch-unentschlossen.csp

[Tender Branson]

New IMAS poll for the "Kronen Zeitung":

28-30% SPÖ
23-25% ÖVP
19-21% FPÖ
13-15% Greens
    6-8% BZÖ
    5-7% Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120713_OTS0157/aktuelle-imas-umfrage-fuer-die-kronen-zeitung-zeugnis-faellt-fuer-fpoe-schlecht-aus-bzoe-kommt-auf-bis-zu-8-prozent

IMAS polls should be taken with a ton of salt though, because they usually underestimate the FPÖ and overestimate the BZÖ. But it would be hilarious if true, because the FPÖ has another problem right now (Carinthian FPK boss Uwe Scheuch got sentenced to prison once again, but still refuses to step down).

[Tender Branson]

All parties except the Greens are now involved in some kind of (corruption/lobbying) scandal:

* ÖVP: This week, Carinthia ÖVP-boss Martinz was on trial because of his involvement in the shady Carinthian Hypo bank sale a few years ago, in which his personal finance adviser Birnbacher got a premium of 6 million € (it is estimated that for the transaction only about 200.000 €s should have gone to him, yet he got 30-times the bonus, from taxpayer money). If confirmed by the judge and in a later appeal, Martinz would get kicked out of the state ÖVP (they are already looking for a new interim ÖVP boss). A few other people from the ÖVP involve former Finance Minister Grasser and Interior Minister Strasser.

* FPÖ/FPK/BZÖ: Martin Graf, previously explained. Uwe Scheuch, Carinthian FPK-leader, already found guilty by a second court, after the verdict of the first court was struck down in the appeals court. If the appeals court finds him guilty of corruption in the 2nd trial, FPÖ boss Strache has basically said that Scheuch has to step down. Also, Carinthian Governor Dörfler (FPK, former BZÖ), his financial advisor Dobernig and MP Petzner from the BZÖ are due to appear in a Vienna trial next week, investigating a huge ad campaign ahead of the 2009 state election in Carinthia, in which the then BZÖ government from Jörg Haider sent out a several ("underestimate") page long brochure to every Carinthian household (paid by taxpayer money). The BZÖ then won a record landslide victory with about 45%.

* SPÖ: Werner Faymann could be charged later this year because of advertising agreements involving the Austrian state rail and several newspapers. More here.

* And while the Greens are not involved in a scandal, they are currently waging a war against drivers in the capital Vienna, where they are in a government with the SPÖ. The SPÖ base is pretty pissed and it could either hurt or help the Greens in the federal elections next year, hard to say. More here.

[Tender Branson]

Also, Carinthian Governor Dörfler (FPK, former BZÖ), his financial advisor Dobernig and MP Petzner from the BZÖ are due to appear in a Vienna trial next week, investigating a huge ad campaign ahead of the 2009 state election in Carinthia, in which the then BZÖ government from Jörg Haider sent out a several ("underestimate") page long brochure to every Carinthian household (paid by taxpayer money). The BZÖ then won a record landslide victory with about 45%.

Ghosts from the past:

The BZÖ-led government has sent out a 40-page campaign info to ALL households in Carinthia recently.

I like Right-wingers behind bars ...

[Tender Branson]

* And while the Greens are not involved in a scandal, they are currently waging a war against drivers in the capital Vienna, where they are in a government with the SPÖ. The SPÖ base is pretty pissed and it could either hurt or help the Greens in the federal elections next year, hard to say. More here.

A new Gallup poll for Ö24 shows that Vienna voters strongly oppose the extension of parking fees in areas other than the inner-city, which was proposed by the SPÖ-Green city government:

28% support it, while 65% oppose it.

Only Green voters support the idea by 67-25, while SPÖ voters oppose it 57-32 and FPÖ voters oppose it with 85%.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120719_OTS0001/oesterreich-umfrage-65-prozent-der-wiener-sind-gegen-das-parkpickerl

SPÖ-Green will implement the new parking zones in the fall and only after that it will hold a referendum on the issue (mostly because the city-ÖVP has collected about 200.000 signatures in the city from voters who oppose the measure).

This stuff might actually hurt the SPÖ in Vienna badly in the federal election next year. I'm not so sure about the Greens. They could remain relatively stable, gain a bit or lose a bit.

[Tender Branson]

This stuff might actually hurt the SPÖ in Vienna badly in the federal election next year. I'm not so sure about the Greens. They could remain relatively stable, gain a bit or lose a bit.

The Greens gain, the SPÖ loses !

At least according to the new Gallup Vienna state elections poll for Ö24:





Bad thing: Almost anyone besides Green voters hate Vienna Green Party leader Maria Vassilakou. Also, like I predicted, the Vienna SPÖ is losing 6% compared with the last state election in 2010. The FPÖ gains 2 additional points, because the city ÖVP still suxx badly.

...

There's also a new federal elections poll by Gallup:





Parties involved in recent corruption scandal trials (ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ), are all losing ground, while new fringe/protest parties like the planned neo-liberal Frank Stronach party and the Pirates are gaining.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Die-SPOe-hat-ein-Pickerl-Problem/73011148

[Tender Branson]

New GfK poll for the ÖVP:



http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/1270094/SPOe-voran-OeVP-liegt-knapp-vor-FPOe

[Tender Branson]

Austrian politician quits over kickback scandal

(Reuters) - The head of Austria's conservative People's Party (OVP) in the province of Carinthia resigned on Wednesday after admitting in court he took part in a kickback scheme to milk money from the sale of state bank Hypo Alpe Adria in 2007.

The abrupt departure of Josef Martinz follows a series of corruption scandals that have dented confidence in public officials and prompted Austria's parliament in June to adopt a sweeping ethics package before elections due next year.

Martinz acknowledged that he plotted to siphon off for party coffers part of an inflated 12 million euro ($14.5 million) fee that was paid to tax adviser Dietrich Birnbacher for his three weeks of work on the bank sale.

Birnbacher has confessed and has also implicated other local politicians in Carinthia, a stronghold of the far-right Freedom Party, which is making strong gains in opinion polls against the ruling national coalition of Social Democrats and the OVP.

Members of the rightist Freedom Party of Carinthia (FPK), which governs with the OVP in the province, have denied wrongdoing in the affair.

"What Birnbacher says is correct," the Austria Press Agency quoted Martinz as saying at his breach of trust trial in the provincial capital of Klagenfurt. He quit his party post with immediate effect.

People's Party leader Michael Spindelegger, also Austria's foreign minister, said he would not put up with behaviour that brought shame on the OVP.

"It was correct and necessary that this (resignation) took place immediately. I personally am deeply disappointed in Josef Martinz," he said in a statement.

Former Carinthian Governor Joerg Haider, the right-wing leader who died in a 2008 car crash, was a prime architect of the 2007 1.6 billion euro sale of Hypo Alpe Adria to German landesbank BayernLB. Birnbacher has said Haider also sought to get kickbacks from the deal.

Austria nationalised Hypo Alpe Adria in 2009 to avoid a collapse of the then BayernLB-owned bank that would have sent shock waves through central and eastern Europe.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/25/austria-corruption-idINL6E8IPCU620120725

According to derstandard.at, new state elections could be "forced" in Carinthia now. Why ?

The FPK, which holds 17 of the 36 seats in the state government, is strongly against snap elections and blocks the dissolution of the state parliament (2/3 of votes are needed).

The state SPÖ as well as the state Greens and the new state ÖVP leader Gabriel Obernosterer all back snap elections. But because the FPK blocks, dissolution is not possible.

But there's a trick provided by the Austrian Constitution: The federal SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens can dissolve a state parliament with their votes (also 2/3) in the federal parliament, which then has to be also backed by the Upper chamber with a 2/3 majority and signed by the President. The federal parties wouldn't rule out such a move ...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://derstandard.at/1342947670943/Gabriel-Obernosterer-neuer-OeVP-Parteichef

Should be interesting, I'd like a 2012 election - even if it's only Carinthia ...

[Tender Branson]

Even the ÖVP's General Secretary now says that the "ÖVP's image is brutally damaged" ...

The party that once won 42% in the federal election in 2002 will now likely drop to 20% or even below in the next polls ...

Not that the FPÖ does much better: They once polled 28%, but are now approaching 22% (still more than the 17.5% in the 2008 elections, but a big drop).

And the BZÖ is around 2-3%, down from 11% in 2008.

[Tender Branson]

According to derstandard.at, new state elections could be "forced" in Carinthia now. Why ?

The FPK, which holds 17 of the 36 seats in the state government, is strongly against snap elections and blocks the dissolution of the state parliament (2/3 of votes are needed).

The state SPÖ as well as the state Greens and the new state ÖVP leader Gabriel Obernosterer all back snap elections. But because the FPK blocks, dissolution is not possible.

But there's a trick provided by the Austrian Constitution: The federal SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens can dissolve a state parliament with their votes (also 2/3) in the federal parliament, which then has to be also backed by the Upper chamber with a 2/3 majority and signed by the President. The federal parties wouldn't rule out such a move ...

Chancellor Faymann is against a federal intervention in Carinthia and has said he's against dissolving the state parliament by a government motion.

So, early "forced" elections are unlikely and the corrupt FPK government will remain in place until 2014.