The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

Even the ÖVP's General Secretary now says that the "ÖVP's image is brutally damaged" ...

The party that once won 42% in the federal election in 2002 will now likely drop to 20% or even below in the next polls ...

Not that the FPÖ does much better: They once polled 28%, but are now approaching 22% (still more than the 17.5% in the 2008 elections, but a big drop).

And the BZÖ is around 2-3%, down from 11% in 2008.

[Tender Branson]

According to derstandard.at, new state elections could be "forced" in Carinthia now. Why ?

The FPK, which holds 17 of the 36 seats in the state government, is strongly against snap elections and blocks the dissolution of the state parliament (2/3 of votes are needed).

The state SPÖ as well as the state Greens and the new state ÖVP leader Gabriel Obernosterer all back snap elections. But because the FPK blocks, dissolution is not possible.

But there's a trick provided by the Austrian Constitution: The federal SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens can dissolve a state parliament with their votes (also 2/3) in the federal parliament, which then has to be also backed by the Upper chamber with a 2/3 majority and signed by the President. The federal parties wouldn't rule out such a move ...

Chancellor Faymann is against a federal intervention in Carinthia and has said he's against dissolving the state parliament by a government motion.

So, early "forced" elections are unlikely and the corrupt FPK government will remain in place until 2014.

[Tender Branson]

In a special session of the Carinthia state parliament, the budget committee approved a motion for snap elections with the votes of SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens - while the FPK voted against it.

This means that in the next regular session of the state parliament, the whole chamber will vote on the snap election motion. But because 2/3 of the chamber needs to be present in the voting process and the FPK has said that their 17 members will move out of the chamber, the motion will fail anyway, even if all 19 members of SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens vote for it.

But SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens have said that they will introduce this snap election motion from now on at the start of EVERY state parliament session, so that the FPK members would have to leave the chamber all the time.

It is unlikely that the FPK can do this all the time, because the media and the public would start to hate them really badly. Already today, there were many people outside the state parliament building welcoming the MP's from the corrupt FPK and ÖVP with signs like "new elections now !" or "crooks and liars ! into prison with them now !" etc.

http://derstandard.at/1342947921332/Neuwahlantrag-im-Ausschuss-abgesegnet

[Tender Branson]

New Tyrol state elections poll by Karmasin for the "TT":

37%  [-3.5] ÖVP
15% [+2.6] FPÖ
14% [+3.3] Greens
14%  [-1.5] SPÖ
12%  [-6.4] Dinkhauser
  3% [+3.0] Pirates (*new*)
  2% [+2.0] For Tyrol (*new*)
  2% [+2.0] Citizen Club (*new*)
  1%  [-1.5] Others

http://www.tt.com/Tirol/5163558-2/%C3%B6vp-f%C3%A4llt-in-ein-sommerloch.csp

[Tender Branson]

New federal Market poll, conducted this week, shows a big hit for the FPÖ and the ÖVP compared with their previous poll, while SPÖ/Greens/BZÖ are gaining:



In the direct vote for Chancellor, a record 6 out of 10 Austrians would now like someone else than one of the current party leaders as Chancellor. Only 43% have a preference:

[Tender Branson]

In a special session of the Carinthia state parliament, the budget committee approved a motion for snap elections with the votes of SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens - while the FPK voted against it.

This means that in the next regular session of the state parliament, the whole chamber will vote on the snap election motion. But because 2/3 of the chamber needs to be present in the voting process and the FPK has said that their 17 members will move out of the chamber, the motion will fail anyway, even if all 19 members of SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens vote for it.

But SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens have said that they will introduce this snap election motion from now on at the start of EVERY state parliament session, so that the FPK members would have to leave the chamber all the time.

It is unlikely that the FPK can do this all the time, because the media and the public would start to hate them really badly. Already today, there were many people outside the state parliament building welcoming the MP's from the corrupt FPK and ÖVP with signs like "new elections now !" or "crooks and liars ! into prison with them now !" etc.

http://derstandard.at/1342947921332/Neuwahlantrag-im-Ausschuss-abgesegnet

Looks like the threat from SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens is having some effect.

Both Carinthia Gov. Gerhard Dörfler and Uwe Scheuch (both FPK) are now leaning towards early elections in 2013:

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Scheuch-fuer-Wahlen-im-Fruehjahr-2013/73820838

But it could just be a red herring by the FPK because of all the media attention focused on all the corrupt crooks in their ranks and to gain some time.

[Tender Branson]

Here's the calendar for the upcoming elections in Austria in 2012 and 2013:



07.10.2012: Burgenland town council and mayoral elections (more or less uninteresting)

Fall 2012: Maybe early elections in Carinthia, which is still very unclear and unlikely

January 2013: Town council elections in Graz (second biggest city in Austria)

Spring 2013: State elections in Lower Austria and Tyrol (those are strong ÖVP states, will only be interesting to see how much the ÖVP loses in both states, but of course the winner will be the ÖVP once again)

May 2013: University council elections

Fall 2013: Regularly scheduled Austrian Parliament Election

I'll create a new 2013 election thread on Jan. 1, 2013 - unless early state elections in Carinthia take place in the fall.

[Tender Branson]

The Carinthian government:



Out of 7, only 1 (woman) is clean.

The other 6 are either already on trial or they are currently being blamed about being corrupt.

[Tender Branson]

Uwe Scheuch, no more:

Another Austrian politician goes as scandals rage

(Reuters) - Corruption scandals in Austria's southernmost province claimed another victim on Wednesday when the head of the right-wing Freedom Party of Carinthia (FPK) quit, saying he could no longer put up with constant "media baiting".

Uwe Scheuch announced he would exit politics but insisted this was not an admission of wrongdoing in a widening furor that is getting huge media attention and could play a role in national elections due next year.

His brother Kurt took over Scheuch's vacant posts.

Scheuch, who was also deputy governor of the province, leaves just days after Carinthia's conservative leader resigned while admitting in court he took part in a kickback scheme to milk money from the sale of state bank Hypo Alpe Adria in 2007.

The abrupt departure of People's Party (OVP) regional head Josef Martinz last week capped a series of corruption scandals that have dented confidence in public officials and prompted Austria's parliament in June to adopt a sweeping ethics package.

Carinthia is a stronghold for the Freedom Party, whose eurosceptic and nationalist themes have put the country's largest opposition party in a strong position to challenge the coalition of center-left Social Democrats (SPO) and the center-right OVP in elections due by September 2013.

Political analysts say the drumbeat of corruption headlines could hurt the OVP and Freedom in the next national elections, boosting chances for the SPO-led coalition to remain in power by dashing prospects for a right-of-center governing alliance.

Sheuch, grandson of the Freedom Party's co-founder, is a political heir of far-right leader Joerg Haider and rose to power when Haider died in a 2008 car crash. Haider split with the Freedom Party before he died, but the FPK and the national Freedom Party under Heinz-Christian Strache remain allies.

Strache on his Facebook page called Scheuch's decision a "creditable step in the interest of Carinthia and the Free Democrat community", adding that cooperation with the FPK would go on.

Scheuch, 43, has denied accusations he also tried to wring kickbacks from a tax adviser who got an inflated 12 million euro ($14.8 million) fee to consult on the bank sale. Prosecutors are probing possible money laundering in the case.

Scheuch has appealed against his 2011 conviction on charges he sought to secure party donations in return for getting Austrian citizenship for a Russian investor.

He told a hastily arranged news conference in Klagenfurt he was going because he was fed up with a "media baiting campaign that has gone on for more than two years against me, my family and people close to me", reiterating he would clear his name.

"Uwe Scheuch, ladies and gentlemen, you can neither bend nor break," he told reporters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/01/us-austria-corruption-idUSBRE8700MK20120801

[Tender Branson]

And even more:

In the night, Landesrat (member of the Carinthia provincial government) Achill Rumpold, Klubobmann (party chair) Stefan Tauschitz und Landesgeschäftsführer (state party managing director) Thomas Goritschnig, all from the ÖVP, stepped down.

http://derstandard.at/1343743764712/Landesrat-Rumpold-und-Klubchef-Tauschitz-treten-zurueck

So, 2 out of the 7 Carinthia government members from the picture I posted above have stepped down in the previous days.

The next is probably Harald Dobernig from the FPK, because the public prosecutor's office for corruption has already raided his house and offices and seized documents ...

[Tender Branson]

First Carinthia poll by Market for the "Standard":

35% SPÖ
25% FPK
17% Greens
  8% ÖVP
  2% BZÖ
13% Others

52-35 majority for SPÖ-Greens !!!

Direct vote for Governor:

22% Peter Kaiser (SPÖ)
20% Gerhard Dörfler (FPK)
16% Rolf Holub (Greens)
12% Gabriel Obernosterer (ÖVP)

http://derstandard.at/1343743855731/Umfrage-Rot-gruene-Mehrheit-in-Kaernten

There's also a new Gallup poll for "Ö24":

36% SPÖ
26% FPK
15% Greens
13% ÖVP
10% BZÖ

51-49 majority for SPÖ-Greens.

Are you in favor of snap elections NOW ?

53% Yes
33% No

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/SPOe-in-Kaernten-auf-Platz-1-FPK-stuerzt-ab/74362815

...

The bad thing is that the Carinthia SPÖ is also blamed for being corrupt and 4 members of the state SPÖ are now under investigation by the public prosecutor's office for corruption.

http://derstandard.at/1343743799162/Korruptionsermittlungen-gegen-SPOe-stehen-bevor

...

So, the only "clean" party in Carinthia are the Greens ...

I want to see the day when the Carinthia Greens get 15% or more or even 20% or more ...

That's like Obama winning Alabama ...

...

For comparison, the 2009 state election results:

44.9% BZÖ
28.7% SPÖ
16.8% ÖVP
  5.2% Greens
  3.8% FPÖ
  0.5% KPÖ

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, the new Gallup poll to be released later today in Ö24 shows the following for the 2013 Austrian parliament elections:

ca. 30% SPÖ
ca. 20-21% ÖVP
ca. 20-21% FPÖ

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/wolfgangfellner/Das-sagt-Oesterreich/74384606

That would be a drop of 8% for the FPÖ compared with previous polls and a drop of 6% for the ÖVP compared with the 2008 elections.

More later.

[Tender Branson]

More later.

Here's the complete stuff:



How corrupt do you think the parties are ?



FPÖ: 69% corrupt, 14% probably not, 2% definitely not

and so on ...

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/SPOe-bundesweit-bereits-8-Prozent-vor-FPOe/74453067

[Tender Branson]

New Carinthia poll by Karmasin for the "Presse" newspaper:



About 9% would vote for "other" parties, which in Carinthia basically means the KPÖ and the not-existing Pirates ...

Also: 48% want new elections NOW, 18% want them until 2012 is over, 29% favor 2013 elections and just 2% want the elections in 2014, which is the regular date.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/1277441/Kaernten_Mehrheit-fuer-Wahl-noch-heuer

[Tender Branson]

Billionaire Frank Stronach will now definitely set up a new party in the last week of September to compete in the 2013 federal election:

http://derstandard.at/1343744551542/Stronach-Parteigruendung-ist-fix

He said that the "frontrunners and campaign people are already found and the party platform is ready".

I guess the name of the party will also be revealed at the end of September. It is also unknown if Stronach himself will be the party frontrunner or if he's just financing the party. I would bet on the latter.

[Tender Branson]

It is also unknown if Stronach himself will be the party frontrunner or if he's just financing the party. I would bet on the latter.

Stronach today said that he himself will be the frontrunner for his party !!!

http://derstandard.at/1343744588262/Frank-Stronach-wird-Spitzenkandidat-seiner-Partei

His goal for the 2013 parliamentary election is 10%, which I think is not unlikely because many disappointed ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ and also some SPÖ-voters will back him. And the Pirates might also get a good amount of votes. So, alltogether Austrians might back 10-20% "other" parties who are currently not in parliament. This might be good for keeping turnout at a high level, because otherwise it might have dropped to about 70% due to all the recent corruption scandals in Carinthia and elsewhere.

[Tender Branson]

Here's more about it (in English articles):

Magna founder to launch Austrian party

(Reuters) - The founder of Magna International Inc, one of the world's biggest auto-parts makers, plans to launch a political party in Austria in September, Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten reported on Saturday, citing an interview.

"The key positions (in the party) have already been assigned, the programme has been agreed," the publication quoted Frank Stronach, the company's founder and honorary chairman, as saying.

Stronach, who immigrated to Canada in 1954, said his party would oppose patronage in Austrian politics and the euro, noting that the region could only function "if each country has its own currency."

Canada-based Magna employs more than 102,000 people in 26 countries and paid Stronach about $900 million in 2010 to cede control of the company.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/11/magna-party-idINL6E8JB0GL20120811

And because Stronach is basically the Austrian Mitt Romney when it comes to the economy and protest votes, this might help him too:

Magna posts higher profit on record sales

(Reuters) - Magna International Inc, one of the world's biggest auto parts manufacturers, reported a big jump in quarterly profit on Thursday, as sales rose 5 percent.

Magna said its second-quarter earnings rose to $349 million, or $1.48 a share, compared with profit of $282 million, or $1.15 a share, in the same period last year.

Revenue increased to $7.7 billion from $7.3 billion in the period ended June.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/09/magna-results-idINL2E8J734W20120809

[Tender Branson]

In an interview yesterday Stronach said that he will put at least 25 Mio. € into the launch and promotion of his new party, even before the actual 2013 election campaign will start next summer.

That sum is more than all the major parties spent combined in the 2008 elections ...

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Stronach-Trete-selbst-als-Nummer-1-an/75152420

A real Austrian Mitt Romney (or Meg Whitman) ...

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ-mayor of Spittal in Carinthia, who is also a Parliamentary MP for the SPÖ, stepped down from his posts, resigned from the SPÖ and joined Frank Stronach's new party yesterday.

He would have been expelled from the SPÖ anyway, if he didn't step down.

http://derstandard.at/1343744837061/Spittaler-SPOe-Buergermeister-wechselt-zu-Stronach

[RedPrometheus]

Perhaps this will divide the Right in Austria even more...

[Tender Branson]

Perhaps this will divide the Right in Austria even more...

Of course. The new Stronach party will gain votes mostly from FPÖ and BZÖ, followed by the ÖVP and a small amount of SPÖ voters.

The FPÖ is already going crazy because Stronach wants a return of the "Schilling" currency, instead of the Euro. Strache and his people already said that a "Eurozone exit is not the solution". Hear hear ! And that from the FPÖ.

Stronach is now in the process of baiting current MP's away from their parties so they can join the Stronach party and set up their own parliamentary club. 5 MP's would be needed for this. Currently, Stronach has 1: The SPÖ guy I mentioned above.

But there are several other people, for example a former FPÖ official which has joined the Stronach team. Also, there are rumours that ÖVP and BZÖ members could be presented when the party gets formed in September.

Stronach's own parliamentary group with 5 defected MP's would be a big benefit for the promotion of his party: 3 MP's signatures are needed that a party is automatically on the ballot next year, so Stronach could forego the collection of the 2600 signatures from voters that are needed to be on the ballot. Also, the state broadcaster ORF would have to invite Stronach to every debate and give him quite a lot of advertising time on TV, something that would not be the case without his own parliamentary club.

[Tender Branson]

It is rumoured that the current 2 Independents in the Parliament, Robert Lugar and Erich Tadler (both former BZÖ MP's) will join the former SPÖ-MP Gerhard Köfer and defect to Stronach.

Which would mean he has already 3 MP's for being on the ballot. Then he needs 2 more.

...

Meanwhile the Pirate Party is self-destructing itself in personal leadership duels: In the last weeks, 3 of the 5 federal chairpersons have stepped down. This chaotic party still polls 5-7% at the moment ...

[Tender Branson]

It is rumoured that the current 2 Independents in the Parliament, Robert Lugar and Erich Tadler (both former BZÖ MP's) will join the former SPÖ-MP Gerhard Köfer and defect to Stronach.

Which would mean he has already 3 MP's for being on the ballot. Then he needs 2 more.

In today's Kronen Zeitung interview, Tadler says he will "definitely join the Stronach party".

(It would be stupid for him not to do so: As an Independent, he would not enter Parliament anymore next year, unless he joins a party in which he can enter it again).

Makes 2 defected MP's.

1 (or 3) more are needed now ...

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll for Ö24 shows Stronach & Greens gaining and SPÖ, FPÖ & Pirates losing:

28%  [-1.3] SPÖ (-1)
21%  [-5.0] ÖVP (nc)
20% [+2.5] FPÖ (-1)
14% [+3.6] Greens (+2)
  8% [+8.0] Stronach (+2)
  4% [+4.0] Pirates (-2)
  3%  [-7.7] BZÖ (nc)
  2%  [-4.1] Others (KPÖ, CPÖ, LIF etc.) (nc)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120818_OTS0028/oesterreich-umfrage-stronach-legt-kraeftig-zu

28% say that they would consider voting for the Stronach party (incl. 33% of men).

Also: 41% of Pirate voters and 39% of FPÖ voters would consider voting for Stronach.

[You kip if you want to...]

New Gallup poll for Ö24 shows Stronach & Greens gaining and SPÖ, FPÖ & Pirates losing:

28%  [-1.3] SPÖ (-1)
21%  [-5.0] ÖVP (nc)
20% [+2.5] FPÖ (-1)
14% [+3.6] Greens (+2)
  8% [+8.0] Stronach (+2)
  4% [+4.0] Pirates (-2)
  3%  [-7.7] BZÖ (nc)
  2%  [-4.1] Others (KPÖ, CPÖ, LIF etc.) (nc)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120818_OTS0028/oesterreich-umfrage-stronach-legt-kraeftig-zu

28% say that they would consider voting for the Stronach party (incl. 33% of men).

Also: 41% of Pirate voters and 39% of FPÖ voters would consider voting for Stronach.

Fad party for crazy youths looking at other fad party for crazy youths? Well, i'm shocked.