The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Zanas]

I love how all three right-wing candidates are men, two of them dull suit-tied stereotypes, whereas all three left-wingers (though we could argue that SPÖ is still left-wing...) are women, with SPÖ candidate kinda hot with that dress...

You cannot make up stuff like that !

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, BZÖ now all have massive credibility problems ! This might help the Greens and Stronach next year:

Austria curbs sleaze panel remit, opposition protests

VIENNA (Reuters) - Austria's government has curbed the remit of a parliamentary investigation into high-level corruption and ensured Chancellor Werner Faymann is not called to testify, rebuffing pressure by protesters and prompting an opposition outcry.

The panel's work has enthralled Austrians for months and fuelled perceptions that politics are rotten given the cozy interplay of business and political power in the Alpine republic, one of the most affluent states in the European Union. Criminal inquiries continue into a slew of alleged graft cases.

With hundreds of demonstrators gathered outside parliament to demand the panel's work go on, a deal to rescue the inquiry came together late on Wednesday but limited its work to just eight more hearings and left Faymann off the witness list.

Critics called it a sad day for Austrian democracy when government parties - concerned the panel was making life uncomfortable before elections next year - fettered an investigation designed to shed light on shady dealings.

"Even if a panel with a deadline is better than no panel, informed elucidation of corruption is no longer possible," the centrist daily Der Standard commented on Thursday.

Officials from Faymann's Social Democrats and their center-right People's Party (OVP) coalition partners put the best face on the compromise deal, noting the panel would have come to an abrupt halt in the absence of an accord.

But Stefan Petzner of the opposition right-wing Alliance for Austria's Future summed it up by telling Austrian television: "In truth this was ice-cold blackmail by the governing parties."

Faymann and a top aide have been investigated over whether they pressured the state railways and motorway agency to place flattering ads with friendly newspapers during his tenure as transport minister before he became chancellor in 2008.

Faymann has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing and said he was ready to appear before the panel if asked to testify, something that the governing parties can prevent with their majority.

story continues ...

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCABRE88J0HE20120920?sp=true

About 90% of Austrians wanted Faymann to testify before the panel, according to a Market poll. I expect the SPÖ to drop in the next polls ...

[Tender Branson]

I expect the SPÖ to drop in the next polls ...

2 new polls out today and the SPÖ drops.

Karmasin Motivforschung for "Profil"

27% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
21% FPÖ
15% Greens
  9% Stronach
  2% BZÖ
  4% Others

The article notes that this is the first time in a "Profil" poll that the SPÖVP coalition drops below 50%. The opposition now has 47% (or 45% without the BZÖ).

http://www.profil.at/articles/1238/560/342581/sonntagsfrage-umfrage-erstmals-mehrheit-spoe-oevp

Gallup for "Ö24"

27% SPÖ
23% ÖVP
21% FPÖ
14% Greens
  9% Stronach
  6% Others (incl. BZÖ, Pirates and others)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120922_OTS0054/spoe-verliert-fpoe-gewinnt-in-neuer-gallup-oesterreich-umfrage

[Tender Branson]

Here is the complete Gallup poll for Ö24, incl. the numbers for the Pirates and the BZÖ:



Here are the approval ratings of the major Austrian party leaders:



Here are the balances (approval minus disapproval) for the Austrian ministers and the President:

[Tender Branson]

Frank Stronach gave his first hour-long interview yesterday @ PULS 4. He was interviewed by Corinna Milborn and Rainer Nowak from the "Presse" newspaper:



It was quite surreal: The interview took place in Stronach's multi-million villa in the Vienna suburbs, that looked like a Southern US mansion with wide surroundings and other multi-million dollar villas next to his.

Other than that, Stronach was quite vague: He wants a small professional army and a 2-year voluntary civil service for men and women. He also wants tuition fees for overcrowded subjects but prefers no tuition fees for studies that "the economy badly needs". He also wants a flat tax in Austria and opposes wealth taxes. He also favors an additional haircut for Greece, with banks involved strongly this time. He also striked me as quite soft on social issues, he said free health care is a right for everyone and that the weak and sick should be cared about by the government in form of unemployment and welfare money. He was also attacked by the moderators for promising to build a plant in Carinthia with 300 jobs, which he actually did but only with 100 jobs created instead of the 300. Then Stronach got loud and said: "I invested 2 Billion € in Austria and created 20.000 jobs. I could have done it elsewhere and made bigger profits, but I did not because my mother is from Carinthia etc. etc."

http://www.puls4.com/video/austrianews/play/1797589

BTW: If you watch the first 10 minutes of the interview, you can also see an excerpt of Stronach's first campaign TV ad in which Bill Clinton (!!!) talks very favorable about Stronach. Stronach has said he wants to put 25 Mio. € into campaign advertising in the next 3 months.

[Tender Branson]

The party was officially registered at the Interior Ministry yesterday under the name "Team Stronach für Österreich" (Team Stronach for Austria) and will be launched officially with a press conference and a website (www.stronach.at) tomorrow at 11am in Vienna.

[Zanas]

I find it very characteristic that his party would have a name in Denglish, having spent all his life in Canada...

[Tender Branson]

I find it very characteristic that his party would have a name in Denglish, having spent all his life in Canada...

But "team" is basically a German name already ...

How else would the party be named ?

"Stronach-Mannschaft für Österreich" ?

or

"Stronach-Gruppe für Österreich" ?



Anyway, the new party colours will be Red-White-Red, like the Austrian flag.

This of course pisses off the "Austrian EU Exit Party" (EU-Austrittspartei Österreichs), which already exists for more than a year and also has Red-White-Red as their party colours:

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,793555

[Tender Branson]

FRANK STRONACH 2013: Wirtschaftskompetenz durch Altersdemenz !

...

Background: In the TV interview I posted above, Stronach could only name 1 MP out of 4 MP's that defected recently to his "team" ...

[Zanas]

Yeah I hadn't realized that Team was so rooted in German nowadays. The German language is not the best resistant against the English language invasion...

[Tender Branson]

Yeah I hadn't realized that Team was so rooted in German nowadays. The German language is not the best resistant against the English language invasion...

Maybe because they have common origins ?

[Tender Branson]

New IMAS poll for the Kronen Zeitung:



It says "Stronach and other parties" are at 15-17%, of which Stronach gets 10-12% and other parties like the Pirates, Communists, Christians, Liberals etc. get about 5%.

http://www.krone.at/Nachrichten/Stronach_als_Senkrecht-Starter_vor_NR-Wahl-IMAS-Umfrage-Story-335548

[Tender Branson]

New "meinungsraum.at" poll for NEWS shows that voters turn to Stronach and the Greens in droves and away from the corrupt SPÖ/ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ in disgust:

27% SPÖ (-2)
21% FPÖ (+3)
19% ÖVP (-7)
15% Greens (+5)
  9% Stronach (+9)
  3% Pirates (+3)
  3% BZÖ (-8)
  3% Others (KPÖ, CPÖ, LIF, EU-Aus, etc.) (-3)

http://www.news.at/a/uausschuss-faymann-verbirgt-etwas

www.meinungsraum.at seems to be a new online-pollster from Vienna.

[Tender Branson]

Today is launch day for the new Stronach party !

Press conference in 3 hours, new website in 4 hours.

The new website will be:

www.teamstronach.at

instead of www.stronach.at

Maybe www.stronach.at already belongs to someone else. Or it will be a website for Frank himself. Who knows ...

[Tender Branson]

New ATV Austria Trend poll shows the FPÖ crashing and Stronach rising:

27% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
19% FPÖ
13% Greens
11% Stronach
  4% BZÖ
  4% Others

Direct vote for Chancellor:

17% Faymann (SPÖ)
13% Spindelegger (ÖVP)
11% Strache (FPÖ)
  8% Stronach
  7% Glawischnig (Greens)
  3% Bucher (BZÖ)
41% Other/None of them

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120927_OTS0008/atv-oesterreich-trend-sonntagsfrage-stronach-bei-11-fpoe-verliert-massiv

Excellent !

Anything that damages the FPÖ and BZÖ is fine for me.

At least Frank Stronach is politically somewhat sane, contrary to the FPÖ and BZÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Currently, Stronach and his team is answering a ton of question from journalists:



http://www.oe24.at/video/live

Just recently he talked about abortion, but I tuned in a little too late, but I guess from what I heard he's pro-choice.

I think this is a very good start for this new party. Expect Stronach to hit 15% soon.

[Boris]

What a badass. Emigrating to Canada before Austria was even an independent country, making a couple billion, and subsequently returning and forming a party marketing itself as a student-driven, intellectual movement. If only something like a Team Stronach-Pirate Party coalition were possible.

[DL]

Where does Stronach fit ideologically< is he seen as left of centre or right of centre and who might he be willing to join in a coalition? Could there be a SPO, Green, Stronach coalition?

[Tender Branson]

Where does Stronach fit ideologically< is he seen as left of centre or right of centre and who might he be willing to join in a coalition? Could there be a SPO, Green, Stronach coalition?

His homepage has released a 30-page party platform yesterday on various issues, but it is still worked on in the next months (so far it's very superficial and vague) and will be finalized in spring or summer of next year (the next election is only in 1 year).

From what I've read so far, he's centrist on social issues (He says the SPÖ has failed as the Worker's Party and he's the real alternative for the average worker, coming out of a poor worker's family himself) and center-right on economic issues.

[Tender Branson]

According to various pollsters, we also have a picture now of what the average Stronach voter looks like:

(White, of course) middle-aged man with (upper) middle-class income, living in mostly rural/suburban areas and with normal/higher education.

Basically, the typical Ex-FPÖ voter.

[Tender Branson]

From the ATV Austria trend poll:

How likely are you to vote in the parliamentary elections next year ?

50% I will definitely vote
32% I will probably vote
11% I will probably not vote
  4% I will definitely not vote
 
82% say they are likely to vote, which means turnout could be similar next year like in 2008, when 79% voted. Despite all the recent political scandals.

Voters of SPÖ, ÖVP, Greens, FPÖ and BZÖ are above average when it comes to "likelyhood" of voting. Stronach voters and "other" party voters are less likely to turn out.

Old people, people with higher education and urban voters are also above average when it comes to turnout. This is strange, because in all recent elections, rural areas had much higher turnout than urban areas.

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/2894800/file

[Tender Branson]

Brand-new Gallup poll for "Ö24", conducted yesterday and today:

26%    [-3] SPÖ
23%    [-3] ÖVP
20%   [+2] FPÖ
14%   [+4] Greens
12% [+12] Stronach
  2%    [-9] BZÖ
  3%    [-3] Others

Only a slight 49-46 majority anymore for the SPÖVP government.

Also: This is the highest support for the "Team Stronach" so far.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-Frank-Stronach-schon-bei-12-Prozent/80078336

[Tender Branson]

... and who might he be willing to join in a coalition? Could there be a SPO, Green, Stronach coalition?

Stronach currently says he would join any coalition with partners that support TEAM STRONACH's ideas.

So, a center-right ÖVP-FPÖ-Stronach coalition (would have a 55-40% majority right now) is not out of question.

[Tender Branson]

Full results of the new Gallup poll, incl. the Pirates:

[Tender Branson]

Stronach calls Merkel "dumb" and "in bed with the banks".

CDU counters and calls Stronach "dumb" too and as "someone who can't calculate".

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/4513843-cdu-zu-stronach-dumm.php

At least Frank Stronach gets the publicity he wanted for his new party ...

But I think the bubble will burst some time next year, when he gets attacked by the other parties during the election campaign.