The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

Full results of the new Gallup poll, incl. the Pirates:

[Tender Branson]

Stronach calls Merkel "dumb" and "in bed with the banks".

CDU counters and calls Stronach "dumb" too and as "someone who can't calculate".

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/4513843-cdu-zu-stronach-dumm.php

At least Frank Stronach gets the publicity he wanted for his new party ...

But I think the bubble will burst some time next year, when he gets attacked by the other parties during the election campaign.

[Tender Branson]

Stronach is now the most popular party leader in Austria (even though all of them are in negative territory):



Hypothetical Chancellor vote:



Vote potential for Stronach party (34% say they could potentially vote for Stronach's party):

[Tender Branson]

First biographical 5-minute ad from Stronach, featuring the Ontario Prime Minister Dalton McGuinty, former US-President Bill Clinton, daughter Belinda Stronach, former Canadian PM Brian Mulroney & Larry King (CNN):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwsrwKvMrSM

Later today, in 2 hours, Stronach will get grilled live on TV by 4 top journalists in an hour-long interview.

[Tender Branson]

Later today, in 2 hours, Stronach will get grilled live on TV by 4 top journalists in an hour-long interview.

That interview was great.

Christian Rainer from the "Profil" magazine was quite an arrogant prick and wanted Stronach to call him with "Sie" (which is the more formal/businesslike version in German for "you"), while the other 3 journalists had no problem with being called "du", (which is the more personal form of "you" in German). Stronach still called Rainer with "du" instead of "Sie" all the time and referred to him as the "megaphone of the Raiffeisen-bank" ...

Another journalist he asked: "Are you an emissary of the Red Army?"

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll for Ö24:

26% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
21% FPÖ
14% Greens
12% Stronach
  5% Others

48-47 lead for the "Grand" () Coalition (SPÖVP).

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121006_OTS0056/oesterreich-umfrage-keine-mehrheit-mehr-fuer-rot-schwarze-koalition

New Karmasin poll for "Heute":

27% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
21% FPÖ
11% Stronach

No numbers for Greens, BZÖ or Pirates in the article ...

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,798816

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll for Ö24:

26% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
21% FPÖ
14% Greens
12% Stronach
  5% Others

48-47 lead for the "Grand" () Coalition (SPÖVP).

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121006_OTS0056/oesterreich-umfrage-keine-mehrheit-mehr-fuer-rot-schwarze-koalition

Full poll has now been released (incl. BZÖ and Pirates):



1% would vote for "other parties".

57% would vote for Right-wingers (ÖVP+FPÖ+Stronach+BZÖ).
40% would vote for Left-wingers (SPÖ+Greens).

The Pirates (2%) are neither "left" or "right".

[Tender Branson]

Today, the Burgenland town council elections take place. Nothing interesting really.

There are about 170 towns in Burgenland, of which the SPÖ and their mayors hold about 90 and the ÖVP the rest, with a few independent mayors . Other parties have basically no chance to win there. So, the statewide vote will be something like 49% SPÖ and 44% ÖVP again. I'll post the results when the polls close.

[Tender Branson]

Today, the Burgenland town council elections take place. Nothing interesting really.

There are about 170 towns in Burgenland, of which the SPÖ and their mayors hold about 90 and the ÖVP the rest, with a few independent mayors . Other parties have basically no chance to win there. So, the statewide vote will be something like 49% SPÖ and 44% ÖVP again. I'll post the results when the polls close.

The polls closed about 1.5 hours ago and 142 of the 171 towns are counted.

And as I predicted, there is not much change compared with 2007:

47.9%  [-1.2] SPÖ
42.5%  [-0.4] ÖVP
  3.7% [+1.0] FPÖ
  3.7% [+0.7] Independents
  1.2%  [-0.1] LBL
  0.9% [+0.1] Greens

Turnout: 84% (no change compared with 2007)

http://wahl.bgld.gv.at/wahlen/gr20121007.nsf

[Tender Branson]

Final Burgenland results:

Town council elections

46.2%  [-1.5] SPÖ
42.1%  [-1.0] ÖVP
  4.2% [+1.1] Independents
  4.0% [+1.1] FPÖ
  1.8% [+0.4] Greens
  1.6%  [-0.2] LBL

Mayoral elections

47.5%  [-2.1] SPÖ
43.2%  [-1.2] ÖVP
  4.0% [+1.3] Independents
  2.9% [+1.6] FPÖ  
  1.6% [+0.2] LBL
  0.6% [+0.2] Greens

Turnout: 82.5% (-0.4)

http://wahl.bgld.gv.at/wahlen/gr20121007.nsf

Map of winning parties:

http://wahl.bgld.gv.at/wahlen/gr20121007.nsf/vwAUSGWeb

...

There was also a city council election in the Lower Austrian city of Krems, which resulted in a historical loss for the City-ÖVP. The ÖVP lost their majority for the first time in 60 years and the SPÖ became the biggest party:

37.9%  [+0.4] SPÖ  
36.2% [-10.1] ÖVP
  8.0%  [+2.1] FPÖ
  6.9%  [+2.7] KLS (Communists and Left Socialists)
  5.0%  [+1.2] Greens
  4.7%  [+4.7] UBK (Independent list)
  1.3%  [+0.1] GFK (Independent list)

http://www.krems.at/wahlen/html/gemeinderatswahlen/grwahl2012.asp

[Tender Branson]

New Oekonsult poll for the RMA:

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the "Standard":

28%    [-1] SPÖ
22%    [-4] ÖVP
20%   [+2] FPÖ
16%   [+6] Greens
10% [+10] Team Stronach
  2%    [-9] BZÖ
  2%    [-4] Others

http://derstandard.at/1348285659306/Gruene-in-Umfrage-bei-16-Prozent

[Marcus Aurelius]

I like where the Greens' figures are going...

[Tender Branson]

I like where the Greens' figures are going...

But usually they always overpoll by a few points ahead of an election. You need to subtract about 2% from their polling numbers and get the actual election day result.

BTW: The BZÖ is collapsing further, because another one of their MP's - Christoph Hagen - has been kicked out of the party yesterday and joined the Team Stronach.

Interestingly, Hagen told BZÖ-boss Bucher on Oct. 11 - the day Jörg Haider died in a car crash - that he would not switch to Stronach. One day later he switched to Stronach ...

Stronach now has 4 former MP's from the BZÖ and 1 from the SPÖ. To set up a parliamentary club, Stronach would need another MP from the BZÖ. Currently, Martina Schenk and Stefan Markowitz are rumoured about switching over to Stronach as well.

http://derstandard.at/1348285786756/Neuzugaenge-im-Team-Stronach

http://derstandard.at/1348285915218/Stronach-Partei-BZOe-Vizelandeschef-naechster-heisser-Tipp

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ national convention was today and Chancellor Faymann was re-elected as party leader with just 83% of the delegates, the LOWEST EVER percentage for a SPÖ leader. This probably had to do with the fact that Faymann refused to appear at the parliamentary investigation committee which deals with corruption involving ÖVP, FPÖ, BZÖ and SPÖ figures, incl. Faymann and one of his workers. About 90% of Austrians wanted Faymann to testify before the PIC, but instead his SPÖ and the ÖVP agreed to kill the PIC (it will stop it's work in a few weeks). Looks like the SPÖ-base is also not amused with Faymann killing the PIC, so he can stay away from the corruption investigations ...

Here's the article in English:

Austrian Chancellor backs EU, higher taxes

(AFP)

VIENNA — Austria's centre-left Chancellor Werner Faymann kicked off Saturday his campaign for re-election next year with a call for higher taxes and a commitment to the crisis-hit European Union.



Speaking at a party conference of his Social Democrats (SPOe), Faymann said he wanted to raise taxes on the wealthy and bring back an inheritance tax in order to improve "social justice" and curb the "excesses of capitalism."

"In order to increase the number of all-day school places ... to 100 percent, we need 500 million euros ($650 million) per year," he said.

"This is exactly the amount that an inheritance tax .. would generate."

Faymann, 52, chancellor of the wealthy EU and eurozone country since late 2008, is currently in a "grand coalition" with the centre-right Austrian People's Party (OeVP) led by Michael Spindelegger, who rejects higher taxes.

The next parliamentary elections in eight-million-strong Austria, which has the lowest rate of unemployment in the EU, are due in October 2013.

With both parties likely to face a strong challenge in the election from the far-right, eurosceptic Freedom Party (FPOe) under Heinz-Christian Strache, Faymann also said he was committed to the EU.

"We must stay together," he said. "Taking us out of the EU would lead us to isolation."

The conference in Sankt Poelten near Vienna was attended by senior centre-left European politicians including Martin Schulz, head of the European Parliament, and Sigmar Gabriel, head of Germany's Social Democrats.

Faymann also said he supported Austria having a professional army. A referendum is due to take place on January 20 on whether to keep compulsory military service.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jhWI0tsFQYmIEfGPnfv72NNTZXXA?docId=CNG.167e93d9881bb2b508c8e1a9db70f189.7e1

[Tender Branson]

Because the SPÖ convention took place yesterday, the pollster "OGM" released the October trust ratings for SPÖ-politicians among all Austrians (balance of "I have trust" minus "I have no trust"):



The Governor of my home state Salzburg, Gabriele Burgstaller, and the President of the Austrian Parliament, Barbara Prammer, have the best trust ratings among SPÖ-politicians.

Those 2 are the most likely to run for President in 2016 for the Social Democrats.

Defense Minister Norbert Darabos has the absolute worst ratings.

[Tender Branson]

The Social Democrats have reached a new low today in the latest "profil" poll:

25% SPÖ
23% ÖVP
22% FPÖ
15% Greens
10% Stronach
  2% BZÖ
  3% Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121020_OTS0004/profil-umfrage-spoe-im-sinkflug

There's also an internal poll conducted for the SPÖ yesterday by IFES:

29% SPÖ
25% ÖVP
14% Greens
11% FPÖ
  6% Stronach
  1% BZÖ
14% Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121020_OTS0015/aktuelle-umfrage-spoe-liegt-stabil-an-erster-stelle

Austrian parties almost never release internal polls. It's pretty bad when the SPÖ starts releasing internal polls right after public polls show them crashing to the lowest level ever. Besides, this poll is a joke because the FPÖ is at only 11% when the public polls show twice the support.

[Tender Branson]

The new Gallup poll for "Ö24" shows basically the same result as the "Profil" poll from yesterday:



Even more reason to believe that the SPÖ internal is crap ...

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Neueste-Umfrage-Kanzler-wird-abgestraft/82406605

[Tender Branson]

New Tirol state elections poll by Karmasin Motivforschung for the "TT":

42% ÖVP
17% Greens
13% SPÖ
11% FPÖ
  8% Dinkhauser list
  3% Gurgiser list
  3% Pirates
  2% Pfurtscheller list
  1% BZÖ

The ÖVP has gained about 4-5% since their polling low in the previous months.

Direct vote for Governor:

31% Günther Platter (ÖVP-Incumbent)
  8% Fritz Dinkhauser
  7% Gerhard Reheis (SPÖ)
  5% Fritz Gurgiser
  3% Ingrid Felipe (Greens)
  2% Gerald Hauser (FPÖ)
  1% Gerhard Huber (BZÖ)
  1% Patrick Pfurtscheller
42% None of those/Other/Undecided

http://www.tt.com/Tirol/5578934-2/ende-des-%C3%B6vp-rekordtiefs-gr%C3%BCne-klar-auf-platz-zwei.csp

[Tender Branson]

Another MP from the BZÖ (Stefan Markowitz) has switched to the Team Stronach, which now has 5 former BZÖ MP's and therefore enough to form its own parliamentary group with state party funding, TV appearances in debates etc. etc.

The parliament still has to approve the new group, but top officials from SPÖVP have said that it will "likely be approved", because there has been a precedent in the early 90s, when 5 members from the FPÖ seperated and set up the LIF (Liberal Forum) parliamentary group.

It also means the BZÖ's strength in parliament has been decimated from 21 elected members in 2008 to 13 now (5 have defected to the Team Stronach and 3 to the FPÖ).

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-leader Michael Spindelegger said that he "rules out a coalition with the FPÖ and Team Stronach, because of their anti-EU-rhetoric".

So, it looks like SPÖVP again after the next elections (or SPÖVPGreens if they don't have a majority anymore). Or Spindelegger flip-flops after the election and enters a ÖVP-FPÖ-Stronach coalition after all. Or Spindelegger is replaced with someone else who then enters a coalition with them.

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/4516999-spindelegger-absage-an-fpoe-und-stronach.php

[Tender Branson]

New IMAS poll for the Kronen Zeitung:



IMAS always shows the FPÖ worse off and the BZÖ better off than other pollsters for some reason ...

http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/SPOe_und_OeVP_liegen_Kopf_an_Kopf_-_FPOe_deutlich_dahinter-Neue_IMAS-Umfrage-Story-338864

[Tender Branson]

The new Gallup poll this week (400 polled, Oct. 24-25) is identical to the one from last week:

25% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
22% FPÖ
15% Greens
11% Stronach
  2% BZÖ
  3% Others

Direct vote for Chancellor:

17% Werner Faymann (SPÖ)
15% Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP)
12% Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ)
  9% Frank Stronach (Team Stronach)

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Rot-Schwarz-hat-keine-Mehrheit-mehr/83109975

[Tender Branson]

A new party has been founded in Austria today: "NEOS - The new Austria"



It is headed by a former ÖVP-politician from Vorarlberg, Matthias Strolz.

I like this party. I will probably sign a petition for them that is needed to appear on the parliamentary election ballot next year. 2600 are needed for all of Austria.

It's socially left-wing, pro-European, pro-education, pro-direct democracy and pro-business.

Some things they favor:

* 138 seats in parliament should be elected directly (relative majority is enough, and special election in the event that a MP steps down, dies, etc.)
*   45 seats in parliament should be elected via party lists

* abolition of the Bundesrat (which is the 2nd chamber of the Austrian legislative)

* more political education is schools

* making Social Insurance carriers more efficient by creating only 1 carrier

* full transperancy with party finances and fundings, party funding should be dramatically lowered until 2018

* reforming the education system: comprehensive and "all-day-long" schools, make schools autonomous and more PE lessons and much more (this looks to be a center-left issue they picked up)

* making the healthcare system even better (it's already pretty good here)

* full gay marriage rights with full adoption rights (currently Austria has Civil Unions and adoptions are not allowed)

* promotion of skill enhancement during maternal leave, draft times etc.

* basic social protection for everyone (they are vague here, probably because Austria already has a pretty good social protection system with many social transfers)

* lower taxes to create more jobs

* longer term reduction of debt as a percentage of GDP to below 50%

* elimination of fixed shop closing times

* and a lot more ...

http://www.neos.eu

[♀ Komrade Feminazi Kitteh ♀]

What are the chances that this party makes it into parliament? Are they getting a lot of attention in the media or are they a fringe group? Sounds like a good party from what you say there.