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| | |-+  The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...
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Question: Who would you vote for in the Austrian Presidential Election ?
Heinz Fischer (Incumbent-SP/IND)   -41 (56.9%)
Barbara Rosenkranz (FP)   -25 (34.7%)
Other candidate (please post)   -2 (2.8%)
Invalid   -4 (5.6%)
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Total Voters: 71

Author Topic: The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...  (Read 107500 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #1025 on: September 28, 2012, 11:37:47 pm »
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Full results of the new Gallup poll, incl. the Pirates:

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1026 on: September 28, 2012, 11:59:33 pm »
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Stronach calls Merkel "dumb" and "in bed with the banks".

CDU counters and calls Stronach "dumb" too and as "someone who can't calculate".

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/4513843-cdu-zu-stronach-dumm.php

At least Frank Stronach gets the publicity he wanted for his new party ... Wink

But I think the bubble will burst some time next year, when he gets attacked by the other parties during the election campaign.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1027 on: September 30, 2012, 12:29:12 am »
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Stronach is now the most popular party leader in Austria (even though all of them are in negative territory):



Hypothetical Chancellor vote:



Vote potential for Stronach party (34% say they could potentially vote for Stronach's party):

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1028 on: September 30, 2012, 01:02:44 pm »
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First biographical 5-minute ad from Stronach, featuring the Ontario Prime Minister Dalton McGuinty, former US-President Bill Clinton, daughter Belinda Stronach, former Canadian PM Brian Mulroney & Larry King (CNN):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwsrwKvMrSM

Later today, in 2 hours, Stronach will get grilled live on TV by 4 top journalists in an hour-long interview.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1029 on: October 01, 2012, 01:09:38 am »
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Later today, in 2 hours, Stronach will get grilled live on TV by 4 top journalists in an hour-long interview.

That interview was great.

Christian Rainer from the "Profil" magazine was quite an arrogant prick and wanted Stronach to call him with "Sie" (which is the more formal/businesslike version in German for "you"), while the other 3 journalists had no problem with being called "du", (which is the more personal form of "you" in German). Stronach still called Rainer with "du" instead of "Sie" all the time and referred to him as the "megaphone of the Raiffeisen-bank" ... Wink

Another journalist he asked: "Are you an emissary of the Red Army?"
« Last Edit: October 01, 2012, 01:16:15 am by Tender Branson »Logged
Tender Branson
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« Reply #1030 on: October 06, 2012, 11:27:07 am »
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New Gallup poll for 24:

26% SP
22% VP
21% FP
14% Greens
12% Stronach
  5% Others

48-47 lead for the "Grand" (Tongue) Coalition (SPVP).

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121006_OTS0056/oesterreich-umfrage-keine-mehrheit-mehr-fuer-rot-schwarze-koalition

New Karmasin poll for "Heute":

27% SP
22% VP
21% FP
11% Stronach

No numbers for Greens, BZ or Pirates in the article ... Sad

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,798816
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1031 on: October 06, 2012, 01:30:02 pm »
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New Gallup poll for 24:

26% SP
22% VP
21% FP
14% Greens
12% Stronach
  5% Others

48-47 lead for the "Grand" (Tongue) Coalition (SPVP).

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121006_OTS0056/oesterreich-umfrage-keine-mehrheit-mehr-fuer-rot-schwarze-koalition

Full poll has now been released (incl. BZ and Pirates):



1% would vote for "other parties".

57% would vote for Right-wingers (VP+FP+Stronach+BZ).
40% would vote for Left-wingers (SP+Greens).

The Pirates (2%) are neither "left" or "right".
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1032 on: October 07, 2012, 04:24:10 am »
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Today, the Burgenland town council elections take place. Nothing interesting really.

There are about 170 towns in Burgenland, of which the SP and their mayors hold about 90 and the VP the rest, with a few independent mayors . Other parties have basically no chance to win there. So, the statewide vote will be something like 49% SP and 44% VP again. I'll post the results when the polls close.
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« Reply #1033 on: October 07, 2012, 11:40:09 am »
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Today, the Burgenland town council elections take place. Nothing interesting really.

There are about 170 towns in Burgenland, of which the SP and their mayors hold about 90 and the VP the rest, with a few independent mayors . Other parties have basically no chance to win there. So, the statewide vote will be something like 49% SP and 44% VP again. I'll post the results when the polls close.

The polls closed about 1.5 hours ago and 142 of the 171 towns are counted.

And as I predicted, there is not much change compared with 2007:

47.9%  [-1.2] SP
42.5%  [-0.4] VP
  3.7% [+1.0] FP
  3.7% [+0.7] Independents
  1.2%  [-0.1] LBL
  0.9% [+0.1] Greens

Turnout: 84% (no change compared with 2007)

http://wahl.bgld.gv.at/wahlen/gr20121007.nsf
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« Reply #1034 on: October 08, 2012, 01:05:28 am »
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Final Burgenland results:

Town council elections

46.2%  [-1.5] SP
42.1%  [-1.0] VP
  4.2% [+1.1] Independents
  4.0% [+1.1] FP
  1.8% [+0.4] Greens
  1.6%  [-0.2] LBL

Mayoral elections

47.5%  [-2.1] SP
43.2%  [-1.2] VP
  4.0% [+1.3] Independents
  2.9% [+1.6] FP  
  1.6% [+0.2] LBL
  0.6% [+0.2] Greens

Turnout: 82.5% (-0.4)

http://wahl.bgld.gv.at/wahlen/gr20121007.nsf

Map of winning parties:

http://wahl.bgld.gv.at/wahlen/gr20121007.nsf/vwAUSGWeb

...

There was also a city council election in the Lower Austrian city of Krems, which resulted in a historical loss for the City-VP. The VP lost their majority for the first time in 60 years and the SP became the biggest party:

37.9%  [+0.4] SP  
36.2% [-10.1] VP
  8.0%  [+2.1] FP
  6.9%  [+2.7] KLS (Communists and Left Socialists)
  5.0%  [+1.2] Greens
  4.7%  [+4.7] UBK (Independent list)
  1.3%  [+0.1] GFK (Independent list)

http://www.krems.at/wahlen/html/gemeinderatswahlen/grwahl2012.asp
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1035 on: October 09, 2012, 02:28:47 pm »
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New Oekonsult poll for the RMA:

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1036 on: October 10, 2012, 01:19:18 pm »
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New Market poll for the "Standard":

28%    [-1] SP
22%    [-4] VP
20%   [+2] FP
16%   [+6] Greens
10% [+10] Team Stronach
  2%    [-9] BZ
  2%    [-4] Others

http://derstandard.at/1348285659306/Gruene-in-Umfrage-bei-16-Prozent
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Armand Duval
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« Reply #1037 on: October 11, 2012, 04:05:18 am »
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I like where the Greens' figures are going...
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« Reply #1038 on: October 13, 2012, 12:23:36 am »
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I like where the Greens' figures are going...

But usually they always overpoll by a few points ahead of an election. You need to subtract about 2% from their polling numbers and get the actual election day result.

BTW: The BZ is collapsing further, because another one of their MP's - Christoph Hagen - has been kicked out of the party yesterday and joined the Team Stronach.

Interestingly, Hagen told BZ-boss Bucher on Oct. 11 - the day Jrg Haider died in a car crash - that he would not switch to Stronach. One day later he switched to Stronach ... Tongue

Stronach now has 4 former MP's from the BZ and 1 from the SP. To set up a parliamentary club, Stronach would need another MP from the BZ. Currently, Martina Schenk and Stefan Markowitz are rumoured about switching over to Stronach as well.

http://derstandard.at/1348285786756/Neuzugaenge-im-Team-Stronach

http://derstandard.at/1348285915218/Stronach-Partei-BZOe-Vizelandeschef-naechster-heisser-Tipp
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« Reply #1039 on: October 13, 2012, 01:17:07 pm »
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SP national convention was today and Chancellor Faymann was re-elected as party leader with just 83% of the delegates, the LOWEST EVER percentage for a SP leader. This probably had to do with the fact that Faymann refused to appear at the parliamentary investigation committee which deals with corruption involving VP, FP, BZ and SP figures, incl. Faymann and one of his workers. About 90% of Austrians wanted Faymann to testify before the PIC, but instead his SP and the VP agreed to kill the PIC (it will stop it's work in a few weeks). Looks like the SP-base is also not amused with Faymann killing the PIC, so he can stay away from the corruption investigations ...

Here's the article in English:

Austrian Chancellor backs EU, higher taxes

(AFP)

VIENNA Austria's centre-left Chancellor Werner Faymann kicked off Saturday his campaign for re-election next year with a call for higher taxes and a commitment to the crisis-hit European Union.



Speaking at a party conference of his Social Democrats (SPOe), Faymann said he wanted to raise taxes on the wealthy and bring back an inheritance tax in order to improve "social justice" and curb the "excesses of capitalism."

"In order to increase the number of all-day school places ... to 100 percent, we need 500 million euros ($650 million) per year," he said.

"This is exactly the amount that an inheritance tax .. would generate."

Faymann, 52, chancellor of the wealthy EU and eurozone country since late 2008, is currently in a "grand coalition" with the centre-right Austrian People's Party (OeVP) led by Michael Spindelegger, who rejects higher taxes.

The next parliamentary elections in eight-million-strong Austria, which has the lowest rate of unemployment in the EU, are due in October 2013.

With both parties likely to face a strong challenge in the election from the far-right, eurosceptic Freedom Party (FPOe) under Heinz-Christian Strache, Faymann also said he was committed to the EU.

"We must stay together," he said. "Taking us out of the EU would lead us to isolation."

The conference in Sankt Poelten near Vienna was attended by senior centre-left European politicians including Martin Schulz, head of the European Parliament, and Sigmar Gabriel, head of Germany's Social Democrats.

Faymann also said he supported Austria having a professional army. A referendum is due to take place on January 20 on whether to keep compulsory military service.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jhWI0tsFQYmIEfGPnfv72NNTZXXA?docId=CNG.167e93d9881bb2b508c8e1a9db70f189.7e1
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« Reply #1040 on: October 14, 2012, 07:40:03 am »
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Because the SP convention took place yesterday, the pollster "OGM" released the October trust ratings for SP-politicians among all Austrians (balance of "I have trust" minus "I have no trust"):



The Governor of my home state Salzburg, Gabriele Burgstaller, and the President of the Austrian Parliament, Barbara Prammer, have the best trust ratings among SP-politicians.

Those 2 are the most likely to run for President in 2016 for the Social Democrats.

Defense Minister Norbert Darabos has the absolute worst ratings.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1041 on: October 20, 2012, 11:42:26 am »
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The Social Democrats have reached a new low today in the latest "profil" poll:

25% SP
23% VP
22% FP
15% Greens
10% Stronach
  2% BZ
  3% Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121020_OTS0004/profil-umfrage-spoe-im-sinkflug

There's also an internal poll conducted for the SP yesterday by IFES:

29% SP
25% VP
14% Greens
11% FP
  6% Stronach
  1% BZ
14% Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121020_OTS0015/aktuelle-umfrage-spoe-liegt-stabil-an-erster-stelle

Austrian parties almost never release internal polls. It's pretty bad when the SP starts releasing internal polls right after public polls show them crashing to the lowest level ever. Besides, this poll is a joke because the FP is at only 11% when the public polls show twice the support.
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« Reply #1042 on: October 21, 2012, 12:12:06 am »
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The new Gallup poll for "24" shows basically the same result as the "Profil" poll from yesterday:



Even more reason to believe that the SP internal is crap ...

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Neueste-Umfrage-Kanzler-wird-abgestraft/82406605
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« Reply #1043 on: October 21, 2012, 12:41:06 am »
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New Tirol state elections poll by Karmasin Motivforschung for the "TT":

42% VP
17% Greens
13% SP
11% FP
  8% Dinkhauser list
  3% Gurgiser list
  3% Pirates
  2% Pfurtscheller list
  1% BZ

The VP has gained about 4-5% since their polling low in the previous months.

Direct vote for Governor:

31% Gnther Platter (VP-Incumbent)
  8% Fritz Dinkhauser
  7% Gerhard Reheis (SP)
  5% Fritz Gurgiser
  3% Ingrid Felipe (Greens)
  2% Gerald Hauser (FP)
  1% Gerhard Huber (BZ)
  1% Patrick Pfurtscheller
42% None of those/Other/Undecided

http://www.tt.com/Tirol/5578934-2/ende-des-%C3%B6vp-rekordtiefs-gr%C3%BCne-klar-auf-platz-zwei.csp
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« Reply #1044 on: October 23, 2012, 01:27:19 pm »
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Another MP from the BZ (Stefan Markowitz) has switched to the Team Stronach, which now has 5 former BZ MP's and therefore enough to form its own parliamentary group with state party funding, TV appearances in debates etc. etc.

The parliament still has to approve the new group, but top officials from SPVP have said that it will "likely be approved", because there has been a precedent in the early 90s, when 5 members from the FP seperated and set up the LIF (Liberal Forum) parliamentary group.

It also means the BZ's strength in parliament has been decimated from 21 elected members in 2008 to 13 now (5 have defected to the Team Stronach and 3 to the FP).
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« Reply #1045 on: October 25, 2012, 09:14:25 am »
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VP-leader Michael Spindelegger said that he "rules out a coalition with the FP and Team Stronach, because of their anti-EU-rhetoric".

So, it looks like SPVP again after the next elections (or SPVPGreens if they don't have a majority anymore). Or Spindelegger flip-flops after the election and enters a VP-FP-Stronach coalition after all. Or Spindelegger is replaced with someone else who then enters a coalition with them.

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/4516999-spindelegger-absage-an-fpoe-und-stronach.php
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« Reply #1046 on: October 27, 2012, 12:13:59 am »
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New IMAS poll for the Kronen Zeitung:



IMAS always shows the FP worse off and the BZ better off than other pollsters for some reason ...

http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/SPOe_und_OeVP_liegen_Kopf_an_Kopf_-_FPOe_deutlich_dahinter-Neue_IMAS-Umfrage-Story-338864
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« Reply #1047 on: October 27, 2012, 06:53:31 am »
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The new Gallup poll this week (400 polled, Oct. 24-25) is identical to the one from last week:

25% SP
22% VP
22% FP
15% Greens
11% Stronach
  2% BZ
  3% Others

Direct vote for Chancellor:

17% Werner Faymann (SP)
15% Michael Spindelegger (VP)
12% Heinz-Christian Strache (FP)
  9% Frank Stronach (Team Stronach)

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Rot-Schwarz-hat-keine-Mehrheit-mehr/83109975
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« Reply #1048 on: October 27, 2012, 12:53:31 pm »
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A new party has been founded in Austria today: "NEOS - The new Austria"



It is headed by a former VP-politician from Vorarlberg, Matthias Strolz.

I like this party. I will probably sign a petition for them that is needed to appear on the parliamentary election ballot next year. 2600 are needed for all of Austria.

It's socially left-wing, pro-European, pro-education, pro-direct democracy and pro-business.

Some things they favor:

* 138 seats in parliament should be elected directly (relative majority is enough, and special election in the event that a MP steps down, dies, etc.)
*   45 seats in parliament should be elected via party lists

* abolition of the Bundesrat (which is the 2nd chamber of the Austrian legislative)

* more political education is schools

* making Social Insurance carriers more efficient by creating only 1 carrier

* full transperancy with party finances and fundings, party funding should be dramatically lowered until 2018

* reforming the education system: comprehensive and "all-day-long" schools, make schools autonomous and more PE lessons and much more (this looks to be a center-left issue they picked up)

* making the healthcare system even better (it's already pretty good here)

* full gay marriage rights with full adoption rights (currently Austria has Civil Unions and adoptions are not allowed)

* promotion of skill enhancement during maternal leave, draft times etc.

* basic social protection for everyone (they are vague here, probably because Austria already has a pretty good social protection system with many social transfers)

* lower taxes to create more jobs

* longer term reduction of debt as a percentage of GDP to below 50%

* elimination of fixed shop closing times

* and a lot more ...

http://www.neos.eu
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« Reply #1049 on: October 27, 2012, 01:00:04 pm »
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What are the chances that this party makes it into parliament? Are they getting a lot of attention in the media or are they a fringe group? Sounds like a good party from what you say there.
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This thread reminds me that I should be somewhere else having sex.

Why is the cat freak lady registered in the Pacific?
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