1852: Zachary Taylor vs. Franklin Pierce

[Scam of God]

President Taylor falls ill with a minor cold during the Independence Day celebration in 1850, and so misses out on consuming tainted food during them. He is easily re-nominated by the Whig Party in 1852.

The Democratic contest goes much the same as it did in real life: not wanting to re-nominate proven loser Lewis Cass, the Democratic Party turns to former Senator from New Hampshire and conservative darkhorse Franklin Pierce.

Discuss with maps.

[Bo]

Taylor wins in a landslide. Too lazy to draw a map. The PV would be about 55% Taylor-45% Pierce. Even though I'm assuming there is no Civil War in this scenario, and a Civil War was definitely possible since Taylor wanted California admitted to the Union as a free state without any conditions attached (like a stronger Fugitive Slave Law). This would have greatly angered many Southern states and possibly caused them to seceede. The only thing that delayed that in RL for 10 years is that Taylor died and Millard Fillmore agreed to implement a stronger Fugitive Slave Act in exchange for making California a free state.

[Dr. Cynic]

Taylor would likely beat Pierce... It's also likely the Civil War happens ten years sooner.