When Will Andrew Cuomo Announce His Candidcy for Governor of New York?

[Bo]

Go.

[Senator Ben]

February 13, 2010.

[Bo]

February 13, 2010.

Is that a guess, or did he make it official?

[Jbrase]

when is the deadline?

[Senator Ben]

February 13, 2010.

Is that a guess, or did he make it official?

Total guess.

[Smash255]

when is the deadline?

July 22nd

[N.i.K.]

Soon.

[Sam Spade]

If he doesn't announce it in January, it probably won't happen.

[cinyc]

when is the deadline?

July 22nd

How do you know this? 

Last I heard, the New York primaries might need to be moved up to comply with new federal rules on military absentee ballots.  The NYS Board of Elections hasn't posted their 2010 political calendar yet.

[BushKenya]

I doubt he announces real soon since he has superior name recognition and money.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

When the dark clouds move in from the east and the coyotes begin to howl in the distance... that's when.

[Lunar]

As an offhand thought, the less time he actually has to "campaign" for the primary, the better off Cuomo would be.  If Paterson isn't able to engage in a negative, defensive campaign, then Cuomo seems to win by default and be better positioned for the general.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yeah, Cuomo could declare the day before the filing deadline and walk into the nomination. He doesn't need to announce any time soon.

[cinyc]

Yeah, Cuomo could declare the day before the filing deadline and walk into the nomination. He doesn't need to announce any time soon.

It would be impossible for Cuomo to declare the day before the filing deadline in New York.  By definition, were Cuomo to wait that long, he wouldn't be the parties' nominee, and would have to go out and get enough signatures to get on the ballot.  That doesn't happen in a day - and someone would notice if Cuomo for Governor petitions were circulating sooner.

At the latest, Cuomo must declare before the NYS Democratic Party Convention, which likely will be held in May.   In the real world, he has to announce sooner than that to start to build support at the convention - probably in the next few months.

[Sam Spade]

As an offhand thought, the less time he actually has to "campaign" for the primary, the better off Cuomo would be.  If Paterson isn't able to engage in a negative, defensive campaign, then Cuomo seems to win by default and be better positioned for the general.

Lunar - you're forgetting one thing.  The blacks won't like that type of maneuver.  And Paterson is not blind enough to miss that attack opportunity (he'd probably make it his own campaign).  Which is why it'll happen soon or not happen at all.

Add to that what cinyc said.

[Lunar]

As an offhand thought, the less time he actually has to "campaign" for the primary, the better off Cuomo would be.  If Paterson isn't able to engage in a negative, defensive campaign, then Cuomo seems to win by default and be better positioned for the general.

Lunar - you're forgetting one thing.  The blacks won't like that type of maneuver.  And Paterson is not blind enough to miss that attack opportunity (he'd probably make it his own campaign). 

I don't see why entering the race early is going to help Cuomo with black voters

[Sam Spade]

As an offhand thought, the less time he actually has to "campaign" for the primary, the better off Cuomo would be.  If Paterson isn't able to engage in a negative, defensive campaign, then Cuomo seems to win by default and be better positioned for the general.

Lunar - you're forgetting one thing.  The blacks won't like that type of maneuver.  And Paterson is not blind enough to miss that attack opportunity (he'd probably make it his own campaign). 

I don't see why entering the race early is going to help Cuomo with black voters

I don't see why it would either.  But if he is concerned about his general election position, he should be concerned about pissing them off by appearing to sweep the black man off his pedestal (even an unpopular black man).

That problem may arise whenever he enters though.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Even if the blacks aren't big on him, who cares? Who's going to beat him?

Besides I have a tough time seeing Paterson being insanely popular even among blacks.

[Sam Spade]

Even if the blacks aren't big on him, who cares? Who's going to beat him?

Besides I have a tough time seeing Paterson being insanely popular even among blacks.

That's not what matters.  Cuomo faces the danger of black people reacting negatively to his entry on the thought that he's taking away the office from a black.  The more he acts entitled to the office, the more likely that event is to occur.

As for the general election, I doubt the Republicans have the candidate to defeat him but don't forget that the Cuomos still have a lot of enemies in NY and the black percentage of the population is not trivial.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Poll after poll has shown Cuomo absolutely murdering Paterson among blacks. A smear campaign by Paterson and the Al Sharptons of the world may damage his position among them a bit but this is a little ridiculous. Paterson is not popular with blacks or really anyone for that matter.

[Bo]

If blacks start to dislike Cuomo if/when he enters (assuming Paterson stays in the race), Cuomo can always tell them that Obama personally told Paterson to withdraw from the race.

[Sam Spade]

Poll after poll has shown Cuomo absolutely murdering Paterson among blacks. A smear campaign by Paterson and the Al Sharptons of the world may damage his position among them a bit but this is a little ridiculous. Paterson is not popular with blacks or really anyone for that matter.

If you don't believe me, just watch.  That assumes, of course, that he waits forever to file or actually runs at all, of course.

[Sam Spade]

If blacks start to dislike Cuomo if/when he enters (assuming Paterson stays in the race), Cuomo can always tell them that Obama personally told Paterson to withdraw from the race.

And how well did it go over in NY when Obama hinted that "we want Cuomo, not you"?

NYers don't like be told what to do.  Especially by outsiders.

[Bo]

If blacks start to dislike Cuomo if/when he enters (assuming Paterson stays in the race), Cuomo can always tell them that Obama personally told Paterson to withdraw from the race.

And how well did it go over in NY when Obama hinted that "we want Cuomo, not you"?

NYers don't like be told what to do.  Especially by outsiders.

Would it be better if Hillary told them? She's not an outsider (at least, not anymore).

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

If blacks start to dislike Cuomo if/when he enters (assuming Paterson stays in the race), Cuomo can always tell them that Obama personally told Paterson to withdraw from the race.

And how well did it go over in NY when Obama hinted that "we want Cuomo, not you"?

NYers don't like be told what to do.  Especially by outsiders.

Would it be better if Hillary told them? She's not an outsider (at least, not anymore).

Don't worry, I'll tell them. Problem solved.