When Will Andrew Cuomo Announce His Candidcy for Governor of New York?

[Sam Spade]

If he doesn't announce it in January, it probably won't happen.

[Sam Spade]

As an offhand thought, the less time he actually has to "campaign" for the primary, the better off Cuomo would be.  If Paterson isn't able to engage in a negative, defensive campaign, then Cuomo seems to win by default and be better positioned for the general.

Lunar - you're forgetting one thing.  The blacks won't like that type of maneuver.  And Paterson is not blind enough to miss that attack opportunity (he'd probably make it his own campaign).  Which is why it'll happen soon or not happen at all.

Add to that what cinyc said.

[Sam Spade]

As an offhand thought, the less time he actually has to "campaign" for the primary, the better off Cuomo would be.  If Paterson isn't able to engage in a negative, defensive campaign, then Cuomo seems to win by default and be better positioned for the general.

Lunar - you're forgetting one thing.  The blacks won't like that type of maneuver.  And Paterson is not blind enough to miss that attack opportunity (he'd probably make it his own campaign). 

I don't see why entering the race early is going to help Cuomo with black voters

I don't see why it would either.  But if he is concerned about his general election position, he should be concerned about pissing them off by appearing to sweep the black man off his pedestal (even an unpopular black man).

That problem may arise whenever he enters though.

[Sam Spade]

Even if the blacks aren't big on him, who cares? Who's going to beat him?

Besides I have a tough time seeing Paterson being insanely popular even among blacks.

That's not what matters.  Cuomo faces the danger of black people reacting negatively to his entry on the thought that he's taking away the office from a black.  The more he acts entitled to the office, the more likely that event is to occur.

As for the general election, I doubt the Republicans have the candidate to defeat him but don't forget that the Cuomos still have a lot of enemies in NY and the black percentage of the population is not trivial.

[Sam Spade]

Poll after poll has shown Cuomo absolutely murdering Paterson among blacks. A smear campaign by Paterson and the Al Sharptons of the world may damage his position among them a bit but this is a little ridiculous. Paterson is not popular with blacks or really anyone for that matter.

If you don't believe me, just watch.  That assumes, of course, that he waits forever to file or actually runs at all, of course.

[Sam Spade]

If blacks start to dislike Cuomo if/when he enters (assuming Paterson stays in the race), Cuomo can always tell them that Obama personally told Paterson to withdraw from the race.

And how well did it go over in NY when Obama hinted that "we want Cuomo, not you"?

NYers don't like be told what to do.  Especially by outsiders.