Montana

[Gren]

I cannot guess why in a state that is overwhelmingly white, rural, with a lot of conservative christians (Mormons, evangelicals) located in a region which is a GOP stronghold (Wyoming gave 65% to the old guy, Idaho 61%) without many working class voters, and which in 2004 backed Bush by 59%, Obama received almost the same amount of votes that his opponent. Native Americans live in large numbers  in MT but the percentage of them in South Dakota is higher and Obama's result was better in MT.

I hope you can enlighten me Thank you in advance

[ajc0918]

isn't Montana kinda libertarian? Ron Paul was on the ballot and got a little over 2% of the vote...

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Montana's actually pretty populist. (Socially conservative) but Max Baucus and Jon Tester are both pretty liberal. I read somewhere that Brian Schweitzer brought seniors to Canada to buy cheap medicine. Now, part of this is due to the shambles that the Montana State GOP is in, but part of it just has to do with Montana.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

It is quite interesting how Montana is much more willing to vote for a Democrat than any of its neighbors. Clinton won the state in 1992 and still did comparatively well there in 1996. I don't think any of its bordering states have voted Dem since 1964.

[Hash]

Montana has had an late influx of liberals from the coastal states, and they've settled mostly in communities in the west of the state. Missoula is the best example. But in addition to that demographic, which isn't huge, is a large proportion of Natives, old working-class traditions and little Mormons.

Montana's actually pretty populist. (Socially conservative)

Populism, apart from the fact that it isn't an ideology, is not entirely social conservatism and Montana is neither a populist nor a social conservative stronghold.

[Gren]

So Montana has been culturally Californicated, too? That would be a good point, but I don't think the influx of liberal people has been the sole responsible for this change. And what do you mean with old working class, Getúlio? Plays it an important role on Montana politics? I assumed that Montana had little working class people, since the state's industry doesn't seem very prosperous.

And actually mormons stand around 5% in Montana, maybe insignificant if compared with Utah or Idaho, but for someone who is not used to see non Catholic Christians, it's a really remarkable percentage

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Montana is only 3% Mormon and doesn't have a much higher percentage of Evangelicals than the country at large. But it does have plenty of latte liberals and union Democrats. That's it in a nutshell.

[Meeker]

I once heard someone describe Montana as the perfect Democratic gerrymander of the upper Mountain West. I tend to agree.

[bgwah]

Montana definitely has working class Democrats. How do you think Tester and Schweitzer got elected?

It's a state that's surprisingly fascinating politcally and demographically. I still don't quite understand it.

Take Butte and Anaconda, for example. Old white Catholic working class mining areas that have declined much that have been a Democratic stronghold for generations. In 2008, counties that fit this description generally trended towards McCain a lot (the best Republican improvements in many cases), but Butte and Anaconda swung to Obama quite a bit---McCain didn't even crack 30% there. Why? I really don't know.

People mention that it's being invaded with latte liberals from the West Coast. While I have no doubt that some people that fit that description have moved there, I don't think it's a huge factor. Montana recently lost a congressional district in the 1990s and still won't be gaining it back, after all. It's population growth isn't great. But I suppose if 100,000 Montanans left the state and 100,000 Californians moved in, the population would stay the same. Nevertheless...

It has a couple strong college towns (Missoula and Bozeman), and Helena has some very Democratic areas as well. Native Americans help a bit, but they don't make up a terribly large portion of the population and have low turn-out.

There are a surprisingly large number of hippies in Montana, too. Nader got ~16% in Missoula County, and won the University of Montana precincts.

I think my uncle has been pretty involved with the Democratic Party in Montana, maybe I'll ask him some questions next time I see him.

[minionofmidas]

I cannot guess why in a state that is overwhelmingly white, rural, with a lot of conservative christians (Mormons, evangelicals) located in a region which is a GOP stronghold (Wyoming gave 65% to the old guy, Idaho 61%) without many working class voters, and which in 2004 backed Bush by 59%, Obama received almost the same amount of votes that his opponent. Native Americans live in large numbers  in MT but the percentage of them in South Dakota is higher and Obama's result was better in MT.

I hope you can enlighten me Thank you in advance

Because it is a state with a lot of working class voters and without Mormons.

[minionofmidas]

Native Americans help a bit, but they don't make up a terribly large portion of the population and have low turn-out.

Much better turnout than in South Dakota or the Southwest. (Montana's State Legislature is gerrymandered to elect Natives in proportion to their numbers - some of these districts have quite small native majorities, but they all elect Natives. Now, compare South Dakota...)

Nader's success was of course partly due to the state being wholly uncompetitive in 2000 - the same thing happened in Alaska. And in Austin.

[Hash]

And what do you mean with old working class, Getúlio? Plays it an important role on Montana politics? I assumed that Montana had little working class people, since the state's industry doesn't seem very prosperous.

There's a lot of old mining communities out west, most of them used to be Democratic and only Butte-Anaconda in MT remains solidly Democratic. Traditionally working-class areas in Utah and Idaho have started abandoning Democrats federally.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Native Americans help a bit, but they don't make up a terribly large portion of the population and have low turn-out.

Much better turnout than in South Dakota or the Southwest. (Montana's State Legislature is gerrymandered to elect Natives in proportion to their numbers - some of these districts have quite small native majorities, but they all elect Natives. Now, compare South Dakota...)

Wasn't Tester's old State Senate seat like this? He may have been an exception.

[minionofmidas]

Which seat did Tester represent? It's possible that the seat only went Native-held in 2006. Then again, he was certainly *born* in Havre, which is in a whitewashed district neighboring a Native-majority one.

[bgwah]

Native Americans help a bit, but they don't make up a terribly large portion of the population and have low turn-out.

Much better turnout than in South Dakota or the Southwest. (Montana's State Legislature is gerrymandered to elect Natives in proportion to their numbers - some of these districts have quite small native majorities, but they all elect Natives. Now, compare South Dakota...)

Nader's success was of course partly due to the state being wholly uncompetitive in 2000 - the same thing happened in Alaska. And in Austin.

Nothing to do with Native Americans, but Missoula is sure a pretty gerrymander: http://nris.mt.gov/gis/legislat/2007/default.asp?Map=Missoula

[nclib]

Interestingly, Montana was drifting to the right, but has now come back towards the center.

Pres. compared to national average:

1988    1992    1996     2000      2004      2008
1.85D   3.05R   11.41R   25.59R   18.03R   2.26R

[Gren]

Thanks to everyone, I got the message. I Didn't know Montana had a large working class community because I didn't know mining was important there. As with working class, I refer to people who work in the industry or in the mines, or even in the service sector (plumbers, mechanics, etc) Farmers or small business owners, for example, don't suit my definition, even if their incomes were similar. But whatever.

So: west coast liberals+working class people not disenchanted with democrats+native americans and other no-matter-how-small minorities+college students+lack of a religious conservative majority+general dissapointent over republicans= 47.2% for Obama in Montana?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Which seat did Tester represent? It's possible that the seat only went Native-held in 2006. Then again, he was certainly *born* in Havre, which is in a whitewashed district neighboring a Native-majority one.

I'm not sure what his seats nor am I familiar with the Montana state Senate map, though Tester is from Chouteau County after looking it up...so probably not after all. If it includes Hill and Blaine counties than it makes sense though, you have a district where the Democrats heavily rely on the Native vote but they don't make a majority and can't elect their own. Much like blacks in all the white Democrat-held seats in Georgia and North Carolina.

[minionofmidas]

Which seat did Tester represent? It's possible that the seat only went Native-held in 2006. Then again, he was certainly *born* in Havre, which is in a whitewashed district neighboring a Native-majority one.

I'm not sure what his seats nor am I familiar with the Montana state Senate map, though Tester is from Chouteau County after looking it up...so probably not after all. If it includes Hill and Blaine counties than it makes sense though, you have a district where the Democrats heavily rely on the Native vote but they don't make a majority and can't elect their own. Much like blacks in all the white Democrat-held seats in Georgia and North Carolina.

Yah, the area is cut up to have a Native Senator and a White Senator:

SD 8 (HD 15 & 16), SD 16 (HD 31 & 32) and SD 21 (HD 41 & 42) are the Native Districts.

Oh, and the new Representative of HD 15 is Mr Frosty Calf Boss Ribs.

And while I was at it, I also checked what District Tester represented: SD 15 (that area elected a Democrat? Wtf? Currently it's delegation is all-Republican again. Excluding the portion of Chouteau, and including the portion of McCone not in the district, McCain took 67% here. Also, the district is just 0.9% Native American.)

[Franzl]

Interestingly, Montana was drifting to the right, but has now come back towards the center.

Pres. compared to national average:

1988    1992    1996     2000      2004      2008
1.85D   3.05R   11.41R   25.59R   18.03R   2.26R

Careful. I don't think that you can really call it a partisan trend. Individual candidates are important.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Careful. I don't think that you can really call it a partisan trend. Individual candidates are important.

True, but 1988 certainly had nothing to do with the candidates.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Which seat did Tester represent? It's possible that the seat only went Native-held in 2006. Then again, he was certainly *born* in Havre, which is in a whitewashed district neighboring a Native-majority one.

I'm not sure what his seats nor am I familiar with the Montana state Senate map, though Tester is from Chouteau County after looking it up...so probably not after all. If it includes Hill and Blaine counties than it makes sense though, you have a district where the Democrats heavily rely on the Native vote but they don't make a majority and can't elect their own. Much like blacks in all the white Democrat-held seats in Georgia and North Carolina.

Yah, the area is cut up to have a Native Senator and a White Senator:

SD 8 (HD 15 & 16), SD 16 (HD 31 & 32) and SD 21 (HD 41 & 42) are the Native Districts.

Oh, and the new Representative of HD 15 is Mr Frosty Calf Boss Ribs.

And while I was at it, I also checked what District Tester represented: SD 15 (that area elected a Democrat? Wtf? Currently it's delegation is all-Republican again. Excluding the portion of Chouteau, and including the portion of McCone not in the district, McCain took 67% here. Also, the district is just 0.9% Native American.)

Tester didn't make much of an improvement in that area either besides almost carrying Chouteau. I wonder if it's like Michele Bachmann where he was perceived as much less liberal while he was running for that seat. (Bachmann has never performed that well in her old seat and possibly could've lost had she ran for reelection. She also lost her hometown both times too.)

I assume that ugly appendage sticking out at the east end of 16 is part of a Native gerrymander?

[Vepres]

It was close in '92 and '96 probably because of Ross Perot taking conservative voters (I know nationally this wasn't the case). It seems to be pretty conservative generally. It was close in 2008 most likely because the voters their were disenchanted with Republican spending and wars. Plus, there are the traditionally Democratic voters mentioned by others.

[minionofmidas]

I assume that ugly appendage sticking out at the east end of 16 is part of a Native gerrymander?

HD31, ie the populated parts of Fort Peck Reservation. In a sense HD32 is much more of a gerrymander, combining Rocky Boy's, Fort Belknap and a bit of Fort Peck. And of course the Senate grouping is an obvious case of gerrymandering. (The really strange district is HD15, combining the actually Native settled parts of the Flathead Rez with the southern end of Blackfeet, straddling a *quite* wild and empty bit of the Continental Divide to do so.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Isn't that area in the middle of that district basically just a national forest? Looks that way on a map.