Scott Brown for president?

[Dan the Roman]

Obviously, I'm a Democrat. And I think the odds are that Coakley will win the Massachusetts Senate race. (Certainly, I hope she does.)

Still, if Brown actually wins, am I crazy to think he may decide to run for president in 2012?

I mean, the odds will be very much against him winning reelection in 2012 when you'd get full Democratic turnout for a presidential race.

The Republican presidential field for 2012, however, is fairly weak, with nobody the base is really that excited about. Naked pictures notwithstanding, Brown could, at least on paper, be a more appealing candidate than some of the other Republicans running. And even though Mitt Romney is FROM Massachusetts, Brown could likely get more grassroots support.

Meanwhile, he'll get boatloads of press for winning a Senate seat in Massachusetts, could likely be a major presence on FOX News, etc. And he could compare his experience with Obama's - longtime state senator with a short tenure in the U.S. Senate.

He'll have to back away from his pro-choice views, but he has already done that.

I don't know. I really wouldn't be shocked if he launched a presidential bid at the end of the year IF he wins the Senate race.

I was thinking about this subject the other day and I think it's definitely a possibility. The latest poll has Brown ahead of Coakley by one point, 48% to 47% (granted, 6% were undecided): http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_45398436.pdf

I agree with you that If Brown does win, he will definitely get tons of publicity. If he's successful as a Senator, he definitely has a chance of running in 2016, but 2012 seems to early and he'd be relatively inexperienced. Republicans should nominate someone more experienced in 2012 if they want a shot at getting the White House back. As I said, though, if Brown has a successful time as Senator and can survive until 2016, I think he definitely could be a 2016 candidate.

The thing is, though I could turn out to be wrong, I *really* don't see how Brown - a fairly conservative Republican, not a liberal one like Weld, Celucci, or pre-2006 Mitt Romney - would be able to win a full Senate term in 2012 given presidential election-level turnout.

With that reality, a 2012 run would make a lot of sense. Worst case scenario, he loses the nomination, but he could still possibly run for governor in 2014 (though a real conservative Republican probably can't win a MA governor's race).

Brown's seat was held by a liberal lesbian before he won it in 2003. He was never expected to be able to hold it, but he is probably one of the hardest working campaigners in the country. He shakes hands with everyone, shows up to every event, responds to emails personally. While that will be harder if he is a Senator, this is a state that is used to be being ignored by both its Governors(Weld, Celluci, Romney, Patrick) and its other Senator(Kerry). Don't underestimate what effect an extraordinarily hard-working senator might have on the state's electorate.