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| |-+  2010 Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
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Poll
Question: Which event for NY is more likely in 2010/early 2011?
Andrew Cuomo is elected Governor   -50 (71.4%)
Chuck Schumer becomes Majority Leader   -1 (1.4%)
Both   -18 (25.7%)
Neither   -1 (1.4%)
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Total Voters: 69

Author Topic: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer  (Read 7114 times)
cinyc
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« Reply #25 on: June 30, 2010, 11:11:26 pm »
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Regardless, I'm not trying to come up with crazy predictive theories here.  Just noting one potential downside.  I think Durbin will get it over Schumer as of now. 

I don't get how Schumer isn't favored.  Half of the Democrat caucus owe their seats to him, and the other half are Jewish.  Don't tell me that won't play a role in the balloting.

1) Schumer is obnoxious.
2) Schumer + Pelosi would be a very bad face for the Democratic Party - New York City and San Francisco liberals who embody everything people in "flyover country" hate.  Durbin is at least from "flyover country".
3) Reid could still win and keep his current job. (Medium-low probability)
4) Democrats could lose control of the Senate, rendering this debate moot. (Low probability, but possible)
5) Schumer and Durban's religion doesn't really matter.  If it mattered, a Mormon would never be Majority Leader.
6) The only people Senators owe their seat to are the people who voted for them. 
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Lunar
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« Reply #26 on: July 01, 2010, 08:09:20 am »
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Why are people quoting a post from mine in January?  I have retracted the Durbin prediction since then, despite holding onto it way too long. 
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this is real
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« Reply #27 on: July 20, 2010, 12:42:27 pm »
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This should be updated, now Schumer isn't gonna be majority leader anytime soon, Reid likely will stay.
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Bo
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« Reply #28 on: August 11, 2010, 04:59:35 pm »
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This should be updated, now Schumer isn't gonna be majority leader anytime soon, Reid likely will stay.

Even if Red wins (which looks pretty likely right now), he might resign as Majority Leader anyway.
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