Regardless, I'm not trying to come up with crazy predictive theories here. Just noting one potential downside. I think Durbin will get it over Schumer as of now.
I don't get how Schumer isn't favored. Half of the Democrat caucus owe their seats to him, and the other half are Jewish. Don't tell me that won't play a role in the balloting.
1) Schumer is obnoxious.
2) Schumer + Pelosi would be a very bad face for the Democratic Party - New York City and San Francisco liberals who embody everything people in "flyover country" hate. Durbin is at least from "flyover country".
3) Reid could still win and keep his current job. (Medium-low probability)
4) Democrats could lose control of the Senate, rendering this debate moot. (Low probability, but possible)
5) Schumer and Durban's religion doesn't really matter. If it mattered, a Mormon would never be Majority Leader.
6) The only people Senators owe their seat to are the people who voted for them.