Is Pennsylvania a swing state?

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Discuss.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, seems to.

[rebeltarian]

In Presidential elections, not really.  It was very close in 2004, but otherwise it always seems to skew safely Democratic, except in Republican landslides like 1980-1988.  If you compare PA to Ohio, for example, it has consistently been a little more Democratic in each election than OH.  Republicans like to think it's a battleground, but it has two big urban Democrat strong-holds what with Pittsburg and Philly and too many blue-collar Dems in the rural areas.  2004 was a close call for the Dems because economics were on the back-burner while war/terrorism and Kerry's murky vietnam/swiftboats background was the main headline.  Ohio is the state that becomes a lot more open to both parties.   

[Antonio the Sixth]

In Presidential elections, not really.  It was very close in 2004, but otherwise it always seems to skew safely Democratic, except in Republican landslides like 1980-1988.  If you compare PA to Ohio, for example, it has consistently been a little more Democratic in each election than OH.  Republicans like to think it's a battleground, but it has two big urban Democrat strong-holds what with Pittsburg and Philly and too many blue-collar Dems in the rural areas.  2004 was a close call for the Dems because economics were on the back-burner while war/terrorism and Kerry's murky vietnam/swiftboats background was the main headline.  Ohio is the state that becomes a lot more open to both parties.   

Obama won PA by only 3 points more than the nationwide margin. That means that, if Reagan had won with a 3-points margin in PV, he would have carried PA. That makes it definitely a swing State.

[Deldem]

I'd say it's a swing state, however with a slight Democratic tilt. It's similar to Florida in that while they are technically both in play, they both tilt towards one party (the GOP in Florida's case).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not much of swing state like OH,NV, and CO but nevertheless its a democratic base battleground that swings back and forth more or less every 8 years, not 4 years.

[J. J.]

I'd say it's a swing state, however with a slight Democratic tilt. It's similar to Florida in that while they are technically both in play, they both tilt towards one party (the GOP in Florida's case).

I think this is correct.  I'd also note that there are statewide elections Republicans win.

[live free or die]

I'd say it is much more of a lean-Dem state than a swing state. I think New Hampshire is more of a swing state, but that could very well be due to its smaller size.

[Bo]

Yes.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think that once the Tom Corbett is sworn in as Governor, and the GOP takes back the State House of Reps which has a narrow Dem majority people will once again label it a swing state. Even more so if Pat Toomey beats Arlen Specter and the GOP surprises on the upside taking any of the following three House seats in PA-04(if Buchanan runs) Pa-07, PA-10(In wave, very possible), PA-11, or PA-12. Both very possible in wave election year.

[Padfoot]

Pennsylvania isn't quite partisan enough to ensure complete Democratic dominance at the state government level, but it is not a swing state at all with regards to presidential elections.  Its a must win state for Democrats that only goes Republican or comes close to going Republican when the Democrats have a bad year.  Its not a state Republicans can win unless they've already clinched the election by winning other actual swing states like Ohio and Florida.  If you look at every Republican loss of the last century, there isn't a single one in which the GOP winning Pennsylvania would have changed the outcome.  Plus there are always other states the GOP would likely contest and win before Pennsylvania assuming a uniform national shift in their direction. 

[DS0816]

Real swing states tend to be bellwethers like Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, and Missouri. Secondary bellwethers like Florida as well. Other than that, it just has do with state having swung in a previous election to a point it carried in the mid- to upper-single digits and is now considered vulnerable for pick off.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I agree with J. J.'s answer.  We put pubs in all kinds of offices statewide and our Senators, but I'd say it will take a major change in the world for a Republican to capture PA in a presidential election anytime soon.

[Sasquatch]

No doubt Bush would have won it if he had picked Tom Ridge in 2000. It's a swing state, but lean Democrat like has already been said.

[Psychic Octopus]

Certainly. It was in 2004, and it was in the early stages of 2008.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think that once the Tom Corbett is sworn in as Governor, and the GOP takes back the State House of Reps which has a narrow Dem majority people will once again label it a swing state. Even more so if Pat Toomey beats Arlen Specter and the GOP surprises on the upside taking any of the following three House seats in PA-04(if Buchanan runs) Pa-07, PA-10(In wave, very possible), PA-11, or PA-12. Both very possible in wave election year.

Don't assume Corbett will be sworn in nor the GOP will take back the House.  There are still GOP held districts in the Philadelphia suburbs that will likely switch to the Dems given the incumbent's retirement.

I also think Toomey will be facing Joe Sestak.  People are tired of Specter.

I'm calling for PA-11 and 12 to flip as of now.  Altmire is strong on his own.  Lentz as a candidate is only baby steps under Meehan, but the ideological bend of the district favors Lentz.  PA-10, yeah it will take a wave, but not a very strong one.

[Smash255]

On the state level you might be able to call it a swing state, but its much more of a lean state on the Presidential level.  The margins the Dems put up in suburban Philly, make it very difficult for the GOP to win the state.   Until the GOP can become competitive in the SE on the Presidential level its not going to be a swing state.  The only types of Republicans who could be competitive in suburban Philly would NEVER get past a GOP Primary.

[Derek]

PA is a Democrat Battleground state. If the Republicans were to win in a landslide, then PA would go red. The opposite could be said for Florida. Obama won it because he won big, but in a close election it goes red. PA goes blue unless there is a Republican landslide.

[DS0816]

No. 6 most-populated Pennsylvania has agreed on all elections with No. 8 Michigan since the first post-World War II election of 1948. Just one exception: 1976, when Michigan held for native son Gerald Ford by 5 points, and Pa. was successfully flipped to the column of Jimmy Carter.

Pa., like Mich., are swing states. But swinging is what a lot of states do. They are also among 18 states that haven’t voted for a Republican since 1988 George H. W. Bush. I look at them as states that tend to favor a particular party for their era, perhaps because of the platform of a given party. Republicans won Mich. in the 1950s, 1970s, and 1980s. Democrats won Mich. in the 1960s, 1990s, and 2000s. So for the GOP to win one of them back…they’d be likely to win them both.

Florida is pretty much a bellwether. Since 1928, it has backed only two losing candidates. You look at 20 elections from 1928 to 2004, and they were right 18 of those 20. In fact, since that first post-WWII election of 1948, the state of Fla. has agreed with what is perhaps the king-maker of them all, Ohio, with the exception of 1992. In 1992, Bill Clinton swung Ohio enough to flip it…but Fla. hung on for Bush by just under 2 points. They both backed the loser of 1960, Richard Nixon, because John F. Kennedy didn’t swing both of them hard enough to flip them. But other than that, Fla. (and Ohio, of course) is continuously and reliably in the columns of prevailing presidential candidates.

Another fact: Only two winning Democrats have not carried Fla.: 1960 JFK and 1992 Bill Clinton. When neither won Fla., they countered with neighboring Georgia. Their following elections saw LBJ lose Ga., in 1964, but win Fla.; and Clinton lost Ga., in 1996, but picked up Fla. The point: All winning Dems have had either Fla. or Ga. in their column. And plenty have ended up carrying both in their elections. (Barack Obama became the third winning Dem not to carry Ga., but won the female vote there while John McCain held the state by 5 points after George W. Bush had a 2004 landslide of 16.5 points. Obama, of course, carried Fla.)

[DS0816]

As mentioned just a little while ago, I don't see how people think Pennsylvania and Florida are comparable in presidential elections. Since 1928, Fla. has backed 19 of 21 election winners. In Pa., they got it wrong in 1932 (sticking with Herbert Hoover instead of Franklin Roosevelt), 1948, 1968, 2000, and 2004. Pa. swings. But all elections tend to swing (in terms of margins). Fla., lately carrying for a winner in the low single digits in terms of margins, does, on the other hand, rank closer to the bellwethers: Ohio (correct in all elections since 1896 with two exceptions), Nevada (correct since 1912 with one exception), New Mexico (agreeing with Nev. on since its first election in 1912, with exception of 2000), and (of course) Missouri (correct in all since 1904 with two exceptions). Other than their populations, I don't see how anyone can find Pa. and Fla. similar to each other in presidential elections.

[Derek]

FL is about 5 points to the right of center and PA is about 5 points left of center in presidential elections. I've lived in both states. PA is competitive at the state level. Florida is a solid Republican state at the state level of government.