Pence in 2012?

[JSojourner]

Mike Pence isn't farting around, it seems...


http://www.blueindiana.net/diary/4426/mike-pence-preparing-for-national-bid


I am not sure if he's been to Iowa or New Hampshire yet, but he's running. 

[useful idiot]

I assume I won't be voting Republican in 2012, but Pence is probably the Republican, of the potential candidates, I'd be least likely to vote for.

[Bo]

The only time I would ever vote for Pence is if the Democratic nominee was incompetent of Jimmy Carter proportions.

[pbrower2a]

Congressional representatives do not win the Presidency, and they even do little to help win their states as VP nominees. Pence needs to defeat Bayh first to even appear as somewhat Presidential.

Jack Kemp, a well-respected politician, couldn't win New York for Bob Dole in 1996. Geraldine Ferraro could not win New York for Walter Mondale in 1984. 

[JSojourner]

Useful, I agree.  Or at least, I would relegate him to the level of a John Thune or a Jim DeMint.  A Talibagelical of the first order and a teabagger.

PBrower, you're right historically.  And I see no reason to believe this will change.  Of course, I would not read too much into the Kemp-Ferraro thing.  Vice-Presidential nominees are relatively meaningless in terms of flipping states...even home states.  But the major point you're making -- that HOR members never ascend to the Presidency -- is quite apt.  I'm not really even remembering one who won a party nomination (at the top of a ticket) in the last 50 years.

The point of my post, though, is that he is serious about running.  And let's not assume it can never happen.  What's the old saying -- a first time for everything?  I say this not to be defeatist but because we dare not presume anything except the need to govern effectively, work hard and campaign as though we're behind in the polls (whether we are or not and regardless of who the opponent is).

[Bo]

Useful, I agree.  Or at least, I would relegate him to the level of a John Thune or a Jim DeMint.  A Talibagelical of the first order and a teabagger.

PBrower, you're right historically.  And I see no reason to believe this will change.  Of course, I would not read too much into the Kemp-Ferraro thing.  Vice-Presidential nominees are relatively meaningless in terms of flipping states...even home states.  But the major point you're making -- that HOR members never ascend to the Presidency -- is quite apt.  I'm not really even remembering one who won a party nomination (at the top of a ticket) in the last 50 years.

The point of my post, though, is that he is serious about running.  And let's not assume it can never happen.  What's the old saying -- a first time for everything?  I say this not to be defeatist but because we dare not presume anything except the need to govern effectively, work hard and campaign as though we're behind in the polls (whether we are or not and regardless of who the opponent is).

The last sitting Representative to win the Presidency was James Garfield in 1880, 130 years ago.

[segwaystyle2012]

pbrower is not correct historically. First of all, both examples were from New York. NY is split upstate/NYC and they don't get along well, not to mention the fact that there were like 30 Reps at the time, meaning the state was too large for one Rep to really associate with the entire state. In a state like Indiana or Missouri or Iowa, a Representative can be more associated with the entire state.

That being said, pence sucks.

[pbrower2a]

Useful, I agree.  Or at least, I would relegate him to the level of a John Thune or a Jim DeMint.  A Talibagelical of the first order and a teabagger.

PBrower, you're right historically.  And I see no reason to believe this will change.  Of course, I would not read too much into the Kemp-Ferraro thing.  Vice-Presidential nominees are relatively meaningless in terms of flipping states...even home states.  But the major point you're making -- that HOR members never ascend to the Presidency -- is quite apt.  I'm not really even remembering one who won a party nomination (at the top of a ticket) in the last 50 years.

The point of my post, though, is that he is serious about running.  And let's not assume it can never happen.  What's the old saying -- a first time for everything?  I say this not to be defeatist but because we dare not presume anything except the need to govern effectively, work hard and campaign as though we're behind in the polls (whether we are or not and regardless of who the opponent is).

I mentioned Jack Kemp because he might have been a fine President -- certainly better than Dubya.

Gerald Ford did become President after a dual resignation of the Vice-President and the President. He barely lost the election of 1976.  He did not run a good campaign until too late.

Congressmen do not run statewide campaigns except in states with one Representative, and those states with only one Congressional Representative  (and three electoral votes) as a rule are not microcosms of America (except perhaps Delaware).  Congressional seats generally are not microcosms of America; they are usually very urban, very suburban, or very rural. They may have unusual percentages of ethnic groups -- Charles Rangell could never win Minnesota 6 (Michelle Bachmann) and Michelle Bachmann could never win New York 16 (Rangell). Urban Representatives generally address urban problems (like poverty) well while neglecting suburban and rural problems; suburban Representatives generally address suburban problems (like transportation) while neglecting urban and rural problems; rural Representatives address rural problems (like farm income) while neglecting urban and suburban problems -- except with the encouragement of the Party leadership in the House.  

As for a Senator from a state with  few Representatives... at least Joe Biden is from a state  that is a microcosm of America to some extent and characteristic of a high-population area. Delaware has urban problems because of Wilmington, genuine suburbs, and a genuine rural area. Eastern Pennsylvania on a small scale? OK. But contrast John Thune, should he be the Republican nominee. His state has cities (Rapid City and Sioux Falls) that fall far short of "metropolitan".  South Dakota has none of the phenomenon that much of America has -- Suburbia. He wouldn't have a clue if he had to campaign in greater Cleveland.

[segwaystyle2012]

Bill Clinton was Governor of Arkansas. Arkansas' demographics aren't representative of America.

[pbrower2a]

Bill Clinton was Governor of Arkansas. Arkansas' demographics aren't representative of America.

True -- but Arkansas has demographics similar to those of several states that together (Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Louisiana, and Georgia) that between them comprise about 65 electoral votes. That is bigger than Texas. Clinton also figured out how to get support in states that had been drifting Democratic during the Reagan-Bush years.

Until October 1992 I thought that the elder Bush would be re-elected.  I then lived in Texas, a state that no Democrat had lost in a victory for over a century and which Clinton was losing, and I had no idea that many states that never voted for a Democrat for President except in a landslide (like Michigan, California, New Hampshire, and Illinois) would of course vote for a fellow Yankee just as in 1976.  I thought that Bill Clinton, whose politics were much like those of Jimmy Carter and a draft-dodger to boot, couldn't win with so many WWII veterans still around.

Oh, was I wrong!

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Congressional representatives do not win the Presidency, and they even do little to help win their states as VP nominees. Pence needs to defeat Bayh first to even appear as somewhat Presidential.

Jack Kemp, a well-respected politician, couldn't win New York for Bob Dole in 1996. Geraldine Ferraro could not win New York for Walter Mondale in 1984. 

I agree with the point.

One historical note: by the 1996 Kemp was no longer a Representative since 8 years and was not even NY state resident. Certainly he would be very competentive on national stage, but would not flip NY.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Interesting.  I know his daughter, so that would certainly make a Pence bid more interesting.  I doubt I'd vote for him, though.

[Psychic Octopus]

Interesting.  I know his daughter, so that would certainly make a Pence bid more interesting.  I doubt I'd vote for him, though.

You know his daughter?

[Psychic Octopus]

The only time I would ever vote for Pence is if the Democratic nominee was incompetent of Jimmy Carter proportions.

So you'd vote for him over Barack Obama?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Interesting.  I know his daughter, so that would certainly make a Pence bid more interesting.  I doubt I'd vote for him, though.

You know his daughter?

I go to school with her.  And I do debate with his son.

[Psychic Octopus]

Interesting.  I know his daughter, so that would certainly make a Pence bid more interesting.  I doubt I'd vote for him, though.

You know his daughter?

I go to school with her.  And I do debate with his son.

That's cool. I don't really have any real political connections, but my ancestors helped organize FDR's trip through Flint, Michigan. Even got a picture of my family with him. That's it, though.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

That's cool. I don't really have any real political connections, but my ancestors helped organize FDR's trip through Flint, Michigan. Even got a picture of my family with him. That's it, though.

Going to school in Arlington has its advantages