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| |-+  2010 Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
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Poll
Question: Hows many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
None   -4 (3.5%)
1-4   -2 (1.8%)
5-9   -7 (6.1%)
10-17   -21 (18.4%)
18-22   -23 (20.2%)
23-44   -32 (28.1%)
45 or more   -25 (21.9%)
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Total Voters: 112

Author Topic: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?  (Read 24939 times)
Vepres
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« Reply #75 on: August 11, 2010, 09:15:20 pm »
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Well, didn't Cook predict precisely a 25 seat loss? Down from his earlier prediction of 35 seats.  As far as Intrade, they are basing it on speculation, I think time will tell whether the Dems can get back in it and the election is 3 months off anyways, alot can change.

Cook believes Republicans have a very good chance of retaking the House.
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LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
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BRTD
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« Reply #76 on: August 11, 2010, 09:26:35 pm »
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InTrade isn't exactly always dead on unless you believe Ron Paul had around a 7% chance of being the GOP nominee in 2008 at any point, or that Al Gore had around a 5% chance after the Iowa caucuses.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #77 on: August 18, 2010, 05:07:05 pm »
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I say 30 now. Ill say this, and I may be proven wrong, but if the Democrats retain Congress, President Obama will lose in 2012 and/or one chamber goes Republican.
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Bo
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« Reply #78 on: August 18, 2010, 05:39:55 pm »
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Um. Intrade has it priced at around 60% that Democrats will lose the house. That puts the loss at more than 38 seats. How much more than 38 seats depends on what you think the shape of the average probability function across the traders on Intrade assign to their certainty of estimation.

Some wealthy Republicans might be putting a lot of money into odds that the GOP will win the House, though, thus making this odds higher on Intrade than they would have been otherwise.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #79 on: August 18, 2010, 06:02:40 pm »
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Voted 18-22 on this back in the day. Obviously, I'd go with 23-44 now (towards the upper end of that).
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OC
olawakandi
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« Reply #80 on: August 20, 2010, 11:18:00 am »
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It will be between 226 and 232 Dems and 203 and 210 GOP members
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #81 on: September 07, 2010, 11:04:38 pm »
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I say 30 now. Ill say this, and I may be proven wrong, but if the Democrats retain Congress, President Obama will lose in 2012 and/or one chamber goes Republican.

Ill take that in a heartbeat.  As long as Obama is out in 2012. 
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #82 on: September 08, 2010, 01:03:13 pm »
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I'll go 40-45 seats.
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olawakandi
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« Reply #83 on: September 11, 2010, 10:44:49 am »
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Nay, 8 seat majority for the Dems in the House, I predict they will barely hold on.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #84 on: October 08, 2010, 07:32:19 pm »
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The correct answer...

Way more than you even think is possible.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #85 on: October 08, 2010, 08:21:08 pm »
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Goes to show you that the future is hard to predict.
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olawakandi
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« Reply #86 on: October 14, 2010, 08:54:12 am »
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Now, the Dems are gonna lose the House of Rep, it all about how much and its probably gonna be about 50-55 seats.
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