Gully Foyle's African News Thread

[politicus]

I'll but in to express my scepticism about a Katumbi presidency. For one thing, I don't see how a Katanga president is supposed to fit into the country's balance of powers. Katanga has always (well, since the Belgian government propped up Tshombe in 1960) been a bit of an outlier within the Congolese constellation, and the province has been on the receiving end of a good deal of resentment from the rest of the country. Not that there is exactly a love affair between Kinshasa and Kivuland, but Katanga must take the cake for being the most 'unique' region of the nation. Let's not forget, they killed Lumumba.

He has a rock solid power base and a successful track record to run on + countrywide support. 

[Insula Dei]

I'll but in to express my scepticism about a Katumbi presidency. For one thing, I don't see how a Katanga president is supposed to fit into the country's balance of powers. Katanga has always (well, since the Belgian government propped up Tshombe in 1960) been a bit of an outlier within the Congolese constellation, and the province has been on the receiving end of a good deal of resentment from the rest of the country. Not that there is exactly a love affair between Kinshasa and Kivuland, but Katanga must take the cake for being the most 'unique' region of the nation. Let's not forget, they killed Lumumba.

He has a rock solid power base and a successful track record to run on. A full integration of Katanga in the national political system would also be a precondition for moving forward.

I'm also sceptical of Congo moving forward any time soon.

[politicus]

African Arguments has this evaluation:

http://africanarguments.org/2014/11/18/congos-leadership-beyond-2016-the-rising-star-of-moise-katumbi-by-kris-berwouts-and-manya-riche/

"Katumbi is currently seen as one of the few politicians, perhaps the only one, who is able to mobilize a considerable electorate in the country’s eleven provinces."

[politicus]

I'll butt in to express my scepticism about a Katumbi presidency. For one thing, I don't see how a Katanga president is supposed to fit into the country's balance of powers. Katanga has always (well, since the Belgian government propped up Tshombe in 1960) been a bit of an outlier within the Congolese constellation, and the province has been on the receiving end of a good deal of resentment from the rest of the country. Not that there is exactly a love affair between Kinshasa and Kivuland, but Katanga must take the cake for being the most 'unique' region of the nation. Let's not forget, they killed Lumumba.

Laurent-Désiré Kabila was born in Katanga and the province is also considered Kabila Jr.s home province.

[politicus]

Rajan Mahtani, the controversial Indo-Zambian chairman of Finance Bank, bribed former Malawian president Joice Banda to restore the bank's license to resume operations in Malawi, where it had been banned back in 2005 for money laundering.

http://amabhungane.co.za/article/2015-01-23-laughing-all-the-way-to-the-bank

[Insula Dei]

I'll butt in to express my scepticism about a Katumbi presidency. For one thing, I don't see how a Katanga president is supposed to fit into the country's balance of powers. Katanga has always (well, since the Belgian government propped up Tshombe in 1960) been a bit of an outlier within the Congolese constellation, and the province has been on the receiving end of a good deal of resentment from the rest of the country. Not that there is exactly a love affair between Kinshasa and Kivuland, but Katanga must take the cake for being the most 'unique' region of the nation. Let's not forget, they killed Lumumba.

Laurent-Désiré Kabila was born in Katanga and the province is also considered Kabila Jr.s home province.

But Kabila's rose to power with the east of the country and Rwanda behind him. Katanga wasn't the launching pad for the power of the Kabilas.

[politicus]

I'll butt in to express my scepticism about a Katumbi presidency. For one thing, I don't see how a Katanga president is supposed to fit into the country's balance of powers. Katanga has always (well, since the Belgian government propped up Tshombe in 1960) been a bit of an outlier within the Congolese constellation, and the province has been on the receiving end of a good deal of resentment from the rest of the country. Not that there is exactly a love affair between Kinshasa and Kivuland, but Katanga must take the cake for being the most 'unique' region of the nation. Let's not forget, they killed Lumumba.

Laurent-Désiré Kabila was born in Katanga and the province is also considered Kabila Jr.s home province.

But Kabila's rose to power with the east of the country and Rwanda behind him. Katanga wasn't the launching pad for the power of the Kabilas.

No and that's why I also found it to be irrelevant at first and wrote that part about integrating Katanga in their political system, but people knowledgeable about Congo seems to consider Katanga as Joseph Kabila's home province and part of his power base along with areas in the east. And the Kabila/Katumbi relationship is far from uncomplicated.

[Simfan34]

All I can add is that I understand that Katumbi enjoys some support in other parts of the country, though I won't try to estimate its extent. The man's father was a foreigner: I'm skeptical that his being Katangan would count for all that much (although the foreigner thing is not going to be helpful).

Rajan Mahtani, the controversial Indo-Zambian chairman of Finance Bank, bribed former Malawian president Joice Banda to restore the bank's license to resume operations in Malawi, where it had been banned back in 2005 for money laundering.

http://amabhungane.co.za/article/2015-01-23-laughing-all-the-way-to-the-bank

Hmm. She didn't tell me that.

[politicus]

Hmm. She didn't tell me that.

You met Joice Banda?

[Simfan34]

Hmm. She didn't tell me that.

You met Joice Banda?

Indeed I did. Interviewed her, actually.

[Simfan34]

DRC Senate backs down on requiring census before elections, effectively ensuring elections take place next year:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-30947880

[Simfan34]

Did the Ethiopian Air Force attack Eritrea, as rumor has it? I don't know what kind of "high ranking Ethiopian military officer" would talk to the Awramba Times, an anti-government outlet based in the US. Strangely enough, though, the pro-government Aiga Forum website is reporting the same thing, albeit citing "Eritrean news outlets". According to them:

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Well this doesn't look good, nor does their explanation make any sense. The "mining pit" in Besha they speak of is a gold mine operated by Nevsun, a Canadian company, which indeed has been a bright spot for the Eritrean economy recently. My initial reaction, interestingly, is to hope that it is untrue, because, as terrible as Eritrea is, this would have been an unprovoked act of aggression, and against economic and civilian rather than military targets at that. Given the pains which the EPRDF has gone to "respect the sovereignty of Eritrea" and how Eritrea's consistently been the aggressor in these conflicts, it'd give the terrorist Italian colonial entity a darkly ironic reason to go crying to the UN about Ethiopian war crimes without much hyperbole. Imagine if they're dead Canadians. It'd be a disaster for us. And what would come out of it? Not much I assume.

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Yes, but the theft of a Hind helicopter (which all sources seem to agree actually happened, by way of pilot defection) does not justify bombing civilian targets in another country. Strikes against the actual "armed Ethiopian opposition terrorist groups" (who, curiously, have acted as enforcers for the Eritrean regime, the same one which fought so hard to free the country from "Ethiopian oppression") would be justifiable. But that wasn't they're saying happened.

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This is nonsense. If the Ethiopian government were serious about this they'd have made a stronger effort to get Eritrea on the State Sponsors of Terror list (which was frustrated by a couple of junior diplomats at the State Department), and to get those stricter sanctions on Eritrea. I mean, Ethiopia's foreign policy has been very counter-intuitive at times (to put it mildly), but this would be obvious.

The flip side is that if this actually happened (really, just if something like this could even be contemplated), it would be a complete reversal from the "no war no peace" policy, or perhaps more accurately the "Eritrea is a country with legitimate aspirations which we must respect" policy. Think of the purges during the Border War of those in the military and the TPLF who wanted an all-out offensive once the Ethiopian forces had gained the upper hand. Consider the absurdity of Ethiopia, after seizing a third of Eritrea's territory, deciding to throw away all its gains by agreeing to ICJ arbitration- and losing! Note Meles' repeated insistence, up to his death, on how "Ethiopia was Ethiopia and Eritrea was Eritrea".

It was a ridiculously deferential policy, and for something like this to happen it would mean that policy was no longer being followed. This would suggest something has about the decision-making process has changed, and I'd hazard what would have changed would be who the decision-makers are. Meles is gone, obviously, but until now we haven't seen much change in stance. It's very possible (perhaps I am being optimistic, considering what I just said about the quality of their foreign policy) that this story, if untrue, has been invented to signal the willingness of the (new) decision-makers to take a more assertive stance against Eritrea.

The question is, then, who are these new decision-makers? (And, of course, is this story true, and, if not, who came up with it and why?)

Of course, it goes without saying that my preferred policy would be one of the "Eritrea is a renegade province occupied by the terrorist Italian colonial entity. At dawn we attack." sort.

[politicus]

The Nigeria's army has recaptured Gwoza from Boko Haram and destroyed the HQ of their self proclaimed caliphate.

Presidential election tomorrow. Looks like President Goodluck Johnathan really is lucky.

(ironically this was announced by the Nigerian Ministry of Defence on twitter..)


"DEFENCE HQ NIGERIAVerificeret konto ‏@DefenceInfoNG

FLASH: Troops this morning captured Gwoza destroying the Headquarters of the Terrorists self styled Caliphate. #NeverAgain

    Retweets 620
    Foretrukne 84
    Oyinlade ...ibghandi! emeka #HotFm983At10.Mercy Taiwo Rikami Richard S&J Aluminium Planet Fanzy wike/jonathan 2015

03.18 - 27. mar. 2015"

[Simfan34]

"Captured".

But either way, certainly is good luck for Goodluck. Which is his first name, by the way.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The Nigerian Army has had a nasty habit of claiming things that aren't actually true as they put a positive spin on things.  Given the track record so far, the timing of this announcement makes its veracity very doubtful until there is independent confirmation.

[politicus]

The leaders of eight Central and West African nations will meet on April 8 to discuss a joint strategy against Boko Haram. The summit in Malabo, capital of Equatorial Guinea, is being jointly organised by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS).

Soldiers from Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon are engaged in an offensive against Boko Haram at the moment.

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/Boko-Haram-Summit-Malabo-Equatorial-Guinea/-/1066/2676664/-/d2gj0kz/-/index.html

[politicus]

President Buhari now accuses the US of "indirectly aiding Boko Haram" by refusing to sell arms to Nigeria due to human rights violations committed by the Nigerian Army and also for blocking Israeli aid and sale of fighter helicopters.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201507231105.html

[Simfan34]

President Buhari now accuses the US of "indirectly aiding Boko Haram" by refusing to sell arms to Nigeria due to human rights violations committed by the Nigerian Army and also for blocking Israeli aid and sale of fighter helicopters.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201507231105.html

Less of a non-sequitur than it sounds, I suppose.

[Halgrímur]

The main Rwandan opposition group the Green Party is close to quitting. Kagame is untouchable and insists on going on forever.

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Rwanda-s-main-opposition-party-considers-giving-up/-/2558/2946368/-/fxf7mqz/-/index.html

[Frodo]

Another of those big stories I missed:

China to ban ivory trade within a year or so as pressure mounts on Hong Kong

By Simon Denyer
October 21, 2015

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