Gully Foyle's African News Thread

[Simfan34]

Burkinabes are rioting to "disinfect themselves" of Blaise Compaore's 27-year rule, after a proposal to allow him to run again, and parliament was set ablaze:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29831262

[Simfan34]

Call it a coup or call it a revolution, but the Burkinabe military  has dissolved Parliament, declared martial law, and is forming a transitional government; it appears Comapore is no longer in charge.

My bet: we will be disappointed.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29840100

[Simfan34]

Compaore has fled to Senegal.

As per?

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lol

[Simfan34]

Continuing the continental tragedy:

Dozens killed in school bombing in Yobe State

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Meanwhile Uganda just won't quit:



Uganda planning new anti-gay law despite opposition

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Way to focus on the important things. I wonder if Salim Saleh will take over.

[Simfan34]

Damn it! I should have mentioned Moise Katumbi before you did. He also owns TP Mazembe, the leading team in country, and has a Jewish father (he was born Moise Soriano but his name was "authenticated" to Katumbi).




What's with the Central African custom of naming things Tout Puissant (eg TP OK Jazz), anyway?

[Simfan34]

He wrote the damn constitution. He abolished the run-off for himself. Why the hell did he put a term limit in there? African dictators always do that. Seriously. Why? Stop it.

Kabila isn't really a dictator, nor are his powers unchecked.

Nah, many African strongmen can get away with ruling in a fairly authoritarian way if other powerful groups (including regions and ethnic groups not favoured by the ruler) know that their time in office is limited. Otherwise you need a much stronger coercive apparatus - generally incl. a national "one party system" - than most African leaders have at their disposal and/or solid foreign backing (Kabila got that, but only from Uganda and Rwanda, not from strong players).

Kabila's most likely successor is the governor of Katanga, a province which produces a very large share of the country's wealth, but hasn't gotten the equivalent political influence. They and other regional centers thinks its their turn now and will not accept Kabila going on for ever.

That's exactly my point. Kabila's rule has always been dependent on the passive collaboration of various other players, who have also served as a check on his exploits. Consider for example the position of someone like Kengo Wa Dondo, who's a political opponent of the Kabilas, but has presided over the Senate for a number of years now.

Kabila's now trying to side-track this opposition. I'm hearing it's open season on anyone wearing a TP Mazembe outfit in Kabila's heartlands. (The club is owned by Katanga governor and presidential hopeful Katumbi) That might work for him or it might not, I'm not really in a position to judge. 

Huh. I haven't actually heard that yet.

[Simfan34]

But it is!

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And to bring it back home...

[Simfan34]

The FT ran a piece on Katumbi just a few days ago:

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Does he seem a bit too good to be true? Yes; and when people, especially in Africa, do sound too good to be true, it's usually because they are. But I've tended to believe that the Congo could do spectacularly well for itself with even relatively mediocre leadership- it's just that they've managed to have spectacularly terrible leaders for, well, just about always.

In 1993, the Congo had a nominal GDP of $47.45 billion,  in 1993 dollars- today that would be $77.74 billion. Today it is $30.63 billion. No wonder there are people nostalgic for Mobutu, I used to think they were absolutely crazy but no more. Even still, GDP per capita grew an average of -2.2% under his rule. It is that things, while getting worse, were better under Mobutu than under Kabila, simply because they haven't gotten any better since Mobutu's fall. It's a rather awful situation to be in

Think about it. If the Congo's gross GDP had grown at a mere 3.6% annually between 1993 and 2000 (the average growth rate in the 1990s, which wasn't even a particularly good time) and then 5.5% between 2001 and 2014 (again the average), it would by now have a GDP of $199.73 billion and a GDP per capita (assuming constant population) of $2,960- roughly the same as Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, or, if you'd like, the Philippines or Sri Lanka.

And this is just keeping pace with the reset of the continent; this ignores that the Congo is far better off in terms of raw potential than the average African country. Imagine if it had grown at the "miracle" rate of 7% (hardly miraculous considering what the Congo has going for it). Gross GDP would be $321.89 billion, and GDP per capita would be $4,770, in the neighborhood of Tunisia, Jordan, or Iran.

Instead today it has a GDP per capita of $454- it's four and a half times poorer than it would be if had just kept pace with the rest of the continent, and more than ten times poorer if it had grown at a rate more in line with its potential.

It's a travesty that the Congo has managed to remain so poor for so long.

[Simfan34]

All I can add is that I understand that Katumbi enjoys some support in other parts of the country, though I won't try to estimate its extent. The man's father was a foreigner: I'm skeptical that his being Katangan would count for all that much (although the foreigner thing is not going to be helpful).

Rajan Mahtani, the controversial Indo-Zambian chairman of Finance Bank, bribed former Malawian president Joice Banda to restore the bank's license to resume operations in Malawi, where it had been banned back in 2005 for money laundering.

http://amabhungane.co.za/article/2015-01-23-laughing-all-the-way-to-the-bank

Hmm. She didn't tell me that.

[Simfan34]

Hmm. She didn't tell me that.

You met Joice Banda?

Indeed I did. Interviewed her, actually.

[Simfan34]

DRC Senate backs down on requiring census before elections, effectively ensuring elections take place next year:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-30947880

[Simfan34]

Did the Ethiopian Air Force attack Eritrea, as rumor has it? I don't know what kind of "high ranking Ethiopian military officer" would talk to the Awramba Times, an anti-government outlet based in the US. Strangely enough, though, the pro-government Aiga Forum website is reporting the same thing, albeit citing "Eritrean news outlets". According to them:

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Well this doesn't look good, nor does their explanation make any sense. The "mining pit" in Besha they speak of is a gold mine operated by Nevsun, a Canadian company, which indeed has been a bright spot for the Eritrean economy recently. My initial reaction, interestingly, is to hope that it is untrue, because, as terrible as Eritrea is, this would have been an unprovoked act of aggression, and against economic and civilian rather than military targets at that. Given the pains which the EPRDF has gone to "respect the sovereignty of Eritrea" and how Eritrea's consistently been the aggressor in these conflicts, it'd give the terrorist Italian colonial entity a darkly ironic reason to go crying to the UN about Ethiopian war crimes without much hyperbole. Imagine if they're dead Canadians. It'd be a disaster for us. And what would come out of it? Not much I assume.

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Yes, but the theft of a Hind helicopter (which all sources seem to agree actually happened, by way of pilot defection) does not justify bombing civilian targets in another country. Strikes against the actual "armed Ethiopian opposition terrorist groups" (who, curiously, have acted as enforcers for the Eritrean regime, the same one which fought so hard to free the country from "Ethiopian oppression") would be justifiable. But that wasn't they're saying happened.

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This is nonsense. If the Ethiopian government were serious about this they'd have made a stronger effort to get Eritrea on the State Sponsors of Terror list (which was frustrated by a couple of junior diplomats at the State Department), and to get those stricter sanctions on Eritrea. I mean, Ethiopia's foreign policy has been very counter-intuitive at times (to put it mildly), but this would be obvious.

The flip side is that if this actually happened (really, just if something like this could even be contemplated), it would be a complete reversal from the "no war no peace" policy, or perhaps more accurately the "Eritrea is a country with legitimate aspirations which we must respect" policy. Think of the purges during the Border War of those in the military and the TPLF who wanted an all-out offensive once the Ethiopian forces had gained the upper hand. Consider the absurdity of Ethiopia, after seizing a third of Eritrea's territory, deciding to throw away all its gains by agreeing to ICJ arbitration- and losing! Note Meles' repeated insistence, up to his death, on how "Ethiopia was Ethiopia and Eritrea was Eritrea".

It was a ridiculously deferential policy, and for something like this to happen it would mean that policy was no longer being followed. This would suggest something has about the decision-making process has changed, and I'd hazard what would have changed would be who the decision-makers are. Meles is gone, obviously, but until now we haven't seen much change in stance. It's very possible (perhaps I am being optimistic, considering what I just said about the quality of their foreign policy) that this story, if untrue, has been invented to signal the willingness of the (new) decision-makers to take a more assertive stance against Eritrea.

The question is, then, who are these new decision-makers? (And, of course, is this story true, and, if not, who came up with it and why?)

Of course, it goes without saying that my preferred policy would be one of the "Eritrea is a renegade province occupied by the terrorist Italian colonial entity. At dawn we attack." sort.

[Simfan34]

"Captured".

But either way, certainly is good luck for Goodluck. Which is his first name, by the way.

[Simfan34]

President Buhari now accuses the US of "indirectly aiding Boko Haram" by refusing to sell arms to Nigeria due to human rights violations committed by the Nigerian Army and also for blocking Israeli aid and sale of fighter helicopters.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201507231105.html

Less of a non-sequitur than it sounds, I suppose.