Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 01, 2014, 09:03:29 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  MA Senate - Special Election Results thread
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 24 Print
Author Topic: MA Senate - Special Election Results thread  (Read 42573 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« on: January 19, 2010, 07:00:54 pm »
Ignore

Atlas MA Special Election Result Page



http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2010/senate/results.html

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_county/MA_Page_0119.html?SITE=AP

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/MA_Page_0119.html?SITE=AP

More to be posted later, maybe....

Thread will be stickied for tonight also.

Special election discussion thread will be reopened in a day or two.

Enjoy!

Sincerely,
Moderating Team
« Last Edit: January 20, 2010, 10:12:07 am by Dave Leip »Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2010, 07:03:31 pm »
Ignore

Noting that the AP link no worky- so boston.com is probably best for now.
Logged
Corporate Worship
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38485
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2010, 07:05:46 pm »
Ignore

I'm hearing that Kennedy has surged into first.
Logged

cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7942


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2010, 07:06:25 pm »
Ignore

I have a spreadsheet ready to go to analyze the results by county, region, town MHI, and Massachusetts PVI, along with separate lists of the top 10 Republican and Democratic strongholds and Bellwethers (based on PVI), top 10 towns with the most residents 18-29 and 65+ and urban areas.

I should be good to go, as soon as the Boston Globe gets some data in.
Logged
Dan the Roman
liberalrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1795
United States


P P P
View Profile
« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2010, 07:06:46 pm »
Ignore

Precinct 3 Winchester @6:49 1299 Votes with a long line
Winchester has 8 precincts and cast about 13,000 votes in 2008

Looks like a 70%+ turnout
Logged
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2010, 07:07:05 pm »
Ignore

Is heath care dead even if Brown loses narrowly?  Maybe.  I know I am squirting lighter fluid on Joe hate around here (almost everyone around here (except me) seems to almost viscerally loathe the man), but is Joe off the health care bill reservation? What do you think?

Lieberman Speaks   [Robert Costa]

From the Hill:

    A victory for Republican Senate candidate Scott Brown in Massachusetts would send a message that voters are "really skeptical about this healthcare bill," Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) said Tuesday.

    Lieberman ultimately voted for that legislation, after weeks of negotiations between his camp and the Democrats with whom he caucuses.

    But the senator told Fox News' Neil Cavuto Tuesday afternoon that a defeat today of one of the bill's strong supporters Democratic candidate Martha Coakley would still "be a very loud message from Massachusetts."

    "Well, it's pretty clear that, if Scott Brown doesn't win, it's certainly going to be close, and that in itself is newsworthy," Lieberman said. "And I think the message is from the voters of Massachusetts that people are anxious about the future and they're unhappy about what's happening in Washington."

    "They're anxious about the economy, the continued high unemployment," he continued. "They don't like all the partisanship and deal-making here in Washington. And they're really skeptical about this health care bill."


Logged

cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7942


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2010, 07:08:10 pm »
Ignore

Precinct 3 Winchester @6:49 1299 Votes with a long line
Winchester has 8 precincts and cast about 13,000 votes in 2008

Looks like a 70%+ turnout

Winchester has an MPVI of -3 (very slightly Republican), FWIW.
Logged
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35636
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2010, 07:08:28 pm »
Ignore

Not sure if this will be updated live, but here's the official results page: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

I also found this, if people want to compare results to trends in the past: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6218
Logged
Psychic Octopus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9171
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2010, 07:09:14 pm »
Ignore

On my laptop, with the TV in front of me.
Logged

Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35636
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2010, 07:10:01 pm »
Ignore

On my laptop, with the TV in front of me.

Are all the networks covering it?  I know FOX and MSNBC are.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: January 19, 2010, 07:11:03 pm »
Ignore

Precinct 3 Winchester @6:49 1299 Votes with a long line
Winchester has 8 precincts and cast about 13,000 votes in 2008

Looks like a 70%+ turnout

Winchester has an MPVI of -3 (very slightly Republican), FWIW.

I wonder where the biggest deviation from "normal" pvi behavior will be. Will it be with lower middle class white middle aged voters? Middle aged working class white voters?  What kind of town demographically is Winchester?
Logged

Corporate Worship
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38485
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: January 19, 2010, 07:11:21 pm »
Ignore

Anyone have a live feed for MSNBC?
Logged

Dan the Roman
liberalrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1795
United States


P P P
View Profile
« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2010, 07:11:29 pm »
Ignore

Precinct 3 Winchester @6:49 1299 Votes with a long line
Winchester has 8 precincts and cast about 13,000 votes in 2008

Looks like a 70%+ turnout

Winchester has an MPVI of -3 (very slightly Republican), FWIW.

Misleading because it tends to bounce around, and Patrick and Obama did well here. But Romney won it by 22 points in 2002, and Brown has a good shot to take it by a similar margin.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7942


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2010, 07:11:42 pm »
Ignore

Not sure if this will be updated live, but here's the official results page: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

I also found this, if people want to compare results to trends in the past: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6218

I will have automatically updating comparisons to the Romney 2002 and Weld 1996 Senate races, plus a (perhaps poor) attempt at an extrapolated turnout comparison to the 2008 presidential election.  2002 and 2008 numbers are the unofficial ones published by the Globe after election day, so how Massachusetts counts absentees is probably irrelevant.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2010, 07:12:18 pm »
Ignore

Just FYI - Coakley's fraud alert thing was dated yesterday. (lol)
Logged
Daniel Adams
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1436
Georgia


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: 2.43

View Profile
« Reply #15 on: January 19, 2010, 07:12:47 pm »
Ignore

Noting that the AP link no worky- so boston.com is probably best for now.

You have to append ?SITE=AP to the AP URL to get it to work, thus.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8647
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: January 19, 2010, 07:13:54 pm »
Ignore

Anyone have a live feed for MSNBC?

http://a962.l2152922961.c21529.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/962/21529/v0001/reflector:22097?MSWMExt=.asf
Logged

Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: January 19, 2010, 07:14:26 pm »
Ignore

Not sure if this will be updated live, but here's the official results page: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

I also found this, if people want to compare results to trends in the past: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6218

I will have automatically updating comparisons to the Romney 2002 and Weld 1996 Senate races, plus a (perhaps poor) attempt at an extrapolated turnout comparison to the 2008 presidential election.  2002 and 2008 numbers are the unofficial ones published by the Globe after election day, so how Massachusetts counts absentees is probably irrelevant.

Your spread sheet has more bells and whistles than an aircraft carrier. You must have spent a lot of time constructing it!  I assume that you will be instantly able per your forumlas to see both the pvi and turnout differentials instantly as you enter the numbers town by town. You really are a political junkie aren't you?  Smiley
Logged

Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35636
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #18 on: January 19, 2010, 07:16:13 pm »
Ignore

Not sure if this will be updated live, but here's the official results page: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

I also found this, if people want to compare results to trends in the past: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6218

I will have automatically updating comparisons to the Romney 2002 and Weld 1996 Senate races, plus a (perhaps poor) attempt at an extrapolated turnout comparison to the 2008 presidential election.  2002 and 2008 numbers are the unofficial ones published by the Globe after election day, so how Massachusetts counts absentees is probably irrelevant.

Your spread sheet has more bells and whistles than an aircraft carrier. You must have spent a lot of time constructing it!  I assume that you will be instantly able per your forumlas to see both the pvi and turnout differentials instantly as you enter the numbers town by town. You really are a political junkie aren't you?  Smiley

Is there a link to his spreadsheet?
Logged
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56443
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #19 on: January 19, 2010, 07:16:30 pm »
Ignore

What kind of town demographically is Winchester?

70% of the adult population have degrees, 71% of those in employment have managerial or professional occupations and the median household income is over $100k...
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: January 19, 2010, 07:16:58 pm »
Ignore

Cinyc most graciously emailed it to me.
Logged

Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: January 19, 2010, 07:18:32 pm »
Ignore

What kind of town demographically is Winchester?

70% of the adult population have degrees, 71% of those in employment have managerial or professional occupations and the median household income is over $100k...

Oh. It is kind of like my town then. Tongue
Logged

Psychic Octopus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9171
United States


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: January 19, 2010, 07:19:03 pm »
Ignore

On my laptop, with the TV in front of me.

Are all the networks covering it?  I know FOX and MSNBC are.

Fox is concerned with it; I think CNN is covering it too.
Logged

cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7942


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: January 19, 2010, 07:20:23 pm »
Ignore

Not sure if this will be updated live, but here's the official results page: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

I also found this, if people want to compare results to trends in the past: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6218

I will have automatically updating comparisons to the Romney 2002 and Weld 1996 Senate races, plus a (perhaps poor) attempt at an extrapolated turnout comparison to the 2008 presidential election.  2002 and 2008 numbers are the unofficial ones published by the Globe after election day, so how Massachusetts counts absentees is probably irrelevant.

Your spread sheet has more bells and whistles than an aircraft carrier. You must have spent a lot of time constructing it!  I assume that you will be instantly able per your forumlas to see both the pvi and turnout differentials instantly as you enter the numbers town by town. You really are a political junkie aren't you?  Smiley

Is there a link to his spreadsheet?

I've put it up on tinyupload.com here:
http://s000.tinyupload.com/index.php?file_id=83351542825072329140

There will probably be errors - hopefully, not many.  But we'll only know when I actually get real data instead of random test data.
Logged
ajc0918
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1375
United States


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: January 19, 2010, 07:20:56 pm »
Ignore

40min!!!

WOOHOO!!
Logged

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 24 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines