MA Senate - Special Election Results thread

[Bono]

In MSNBC they're already calling Brown supporters racist.

[J. J.]

Coakley's pollster (Lake, according to Fox) blaming the White House; White House blaming Coakley.

Just love circular firing squad before the result is announced.

I don't know what Coakley's people think Obama was supposed to do differently. She's the one that squandered a 15 point lead in a week. Obama and the national party's numbers stayed pretty constant throughout the same period, so it's clear that it's largely her fault.

Too soft on Wall Street; not enough attention to Main Street.  I'm just reporting, not commenting.

Even if that's so, the national situation has not changed in the past two weeks or so, while her poll numbers have. She was winning by a healthy margin even when Obama was "too soft on Wall Street; not enough attention to Main Street."

Lake, I think, is saying, *You made the environment toxic.*  True or not, that is what Lake is saying (and she at least should have waited to say it until the polls were at least closed).

[Mr. Morden]

Bolton, the first town of any notable size in, is a 28.8% swing to the GOP

Gosnold (tiny) 55.9% GOPward

Wait, a swing from what baseline?  Kennedy's last reelection race?

[perdedor]

First precincts are up on boston.com.

AP too. Brown up by 733 (11%).

12/2168
Brown up by 1165 (9%)

36/2168
Brown up by 4187 (10%)

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen did exit polls!!!

Yeah and if 22% of Democrats voted for Brown, Coakley has lost by a big margin (at least 5% I guess).

[Alcon]

Coakley from Obama:

Ashland: -31.14%

Holland town: -36.75%

Monroe town (tiny): -33.09%

Middleton: -31.28%

Oxford: -39.52%

These are not sustainable numbers.  The only caveat is that we have nothing from the Boston metro yet.  They are consistent with a win of 5% to 10%, maybe a tick more.

[cinyc]

I finally got the Boston Globe Data to download:

[muon2]

Southhampton is complete at 59-40 for Brown. It's in the fairly-D Conn valley and was just about 50% for Patrick in 06 so that's some measure of the shift.

[Torie]

Coakley from Obama:

Ashland: -31.14%

Holland town: -36.75%

Monroe town (tiny): -33.09%

Middleton: -31.28%

Oxford: -39.52%

These are not sustainable numbers.  The only caveat is that we have nothing from the Boston metro yet.  They are consistent with a win of 5% to 10%, maybe a tick more.

Are these all absentee votes?

[Iosif]

Coakley from Obama:

Ashland: -31.14%

Holland town: -36.75%

Monroe town (tiny): -33.09%

Middleton: -31.28%

Oxford: -39.52%

These are not sustainable numbers.  The only caveat is that we have nothing from the Boston metro yet.  They are consistent with a win of 5% to 10%, maybe a tick more.

A win to who? I'm going to guess Brown but you really should've worded your post better.

I'm going to bed. This is gay.

[J. J.]

Yeah, J.J. is always commenting.

Rasmussen has hyperactivity, much like much of the Right these days... too bad you can't trust them. Rasmussen is fine with horse race polls but when they're crafting questions on other topics it's total BS.

I don't know why you are complaining.  I'm just relaying it, not saying it.

[RI]

4% Reporting

Brown: 30,579 (52%)
Coakley: 27,551 (47%)

[perdedor]

First precincts are up on boston.com.

AP too. Brown up by 733 (11%).

12/2168
Brown up by 1165 (9%)

36/2168
Brown up by 4187 (10%)

79/2168
Brown up by 3028 (5%)

[Sam Spade]

exit polls = crap

[RIP Robert H Bork]

First precincts are up on boston.com.

At last. The map now appears on the main page too.

Anyway Brown leads by just 5 points now.

[Progressive]

52-47 Brown. A lot of the GOP areas have been called 100%

[Lief 🗽]

4% Reporting

Brown: 30,579 (52%)
Coakley: 27,551 (47%)

marthamentum!

[Torie]

Southhampton is complete at 59-40 for Brown. It's in the fairly-D Conn valley and was just about 50% for Patrick in 06 so that's some measure of the shift.

The pvi for southhampton is 7.5% GOP, so that is a 12% margin for Brown, if that swing obtained statewide. Or do you divide the margin by 2 first before slapping on the PVI number? If the latter, than that is a 2% margin.

[cinyc]

4%:

[perdedor]

First precincts are up on boston.com.

AP too. Brown up by 733 (11%).

12/2168
Brown up by 1165 (9%)

36/2168
Brown up by 4187 (10%)

79/2168
Brown up by 3028 (5%)

116/2168
Brown up by 5163 (5%)

[Alcon]

I don't think these are absentees, no, although they may include some absentees.  MA may be one of those states where absentees must be there by Election Day.

Princeton: -31.87%

Southampton: -32.88%

West Newbury: -28.12%

The numbers for Lowell are incorrect, no way that's 31/33 precincts.

[Sarnstrom]

In the City of Lowell Obama won 66% in 2008 and with 95 percent in Coakley is at 69% .

[cinyc]

By PVI Band (4%):

[Alcon]

In the City of Lowell Obama won 66% in 2008 and with 95 percent in Coakley is at 69% .

It's wrong, look how few votes there are.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Is Boston Globe working for anybody right now?