MA Senate - Special Election Results thread
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Author Topic: MA Senate - Special Election Results thread  (Read 83176 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #150 on: January 19, 2010, 08:31:33 PM »
Coakley margin versus Obama margin.  Now with votes cast in parentheses.  Note that the magic number is -25.81%.

Avon (2k): -24.43%

Danvers (10k): -37.21%

Hopkinton (7k): -30.93%

Leicester (4k): -39.40%

ag: I'm seeing bigger swings than that, and for all intents and purposes, an election that is probably over.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #151 on: January 19, 2010, 08:31:43 PM »
A quick glance appears to indicate Brown outperforming (even Romney) in the working-class (or formerly working-class) areas and the suburbs.  Coakley appears to be holding up well in the cities and rich liberal areas.  I can see Whouley at work here - question is "is it enough"?
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #152 on: January 19, 2010, 08:32:03 PM »

Does that refresh automatically?
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cinyc
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« Reply #153 on: January 19, 2010, 08:32:11 PM »
Quote from: ag on January 19, 2010, 08:31:18 PM
Looks to me like a 8-12% swing in most places. May be a very close election, but nothing seems clear - yet.

Turnout in towns that are all in is in the 60s.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #154 on: January 19, 2010, 08:32:22 PM »
Frankly, with these numbers, there's just no way Coakley wins.
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perdedor
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« Reply #155 on: January 19, 2010, 08:32:52 PM »
Brown up 17,913 (53-46)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #156 on: January 19, 2010, 08:33:08 PM »

Yes.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #157 on: January 19, 2010, 08:33:31 PM »
Coakley is being murdered in the suburbs.
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cinyc
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« Reply #158 on: January 19, 2010, 08:33:39 PM »
Does the NYT have a table of towns anywhere?  The Globe's website is sluggish.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #159 on: January 19, 2010, 08:34:07 PM »
cynic, based on your spreadsheet math, how well is Brown doing?
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perdedor
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« Reply #160 on: January 19, 2010, 08:35:04 PM »

13% Reporting: Brown up 24,021 (53-46)
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J. J.
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« Reply #161 on: January 19, 2010, 08:35:17 PM »
Quote from: Mario Cuomo on January 19, 2010, 08:30:26 PM
Quote from: J. J. on January 19, 2010, 08:05:19 PM
Coakley's pollster (Lake, according to Fox) blaming the White House; White House blaming Coakley.

Just love circular firing squad before the result is announced.

I agree with the WH on this one.

I think if Obama was stronger there would be a win or if Coakley was a better candidate there would be a win.  Both together is the problem.
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ag
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« Reply #162 on: January 19, 2010, 08:35:22 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on January 19, 2010, 08:31:33 PM
Coakley margin versus Obama margin.  Now with votes cast in parentheses.  Note that the magic number is -25.81%.

Avon (2k): -24.43%

Danvers (10k): -37.21%

Hopkinton (7k): -30.93%

Leicester (4k): -39.40%

ag: I'm seeing bigger swings than that, and for all intents and purposes, an election that is probably over.

None of the big cities have reported much yet, but look at Newton.
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cinyc
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« Reply #163 on: January 19, 2010, 08:35:32 PM »
From the 8% data:
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #164 on: January 19, 2010, 08:35:52 PM »
About a fifth of Lynn is in and Coakley only leads there by 3%.
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Alcon
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« Reply #165 on: January 19, 2010, 08:36:14 PM »
Burlington (9k): -29.95%

Eastham (3k): -22.16%

Grafton (7k): -35.48%

Granby (3k): -31.16%

Newbury (3k): -28.42%

Orleans (4k): -24.43%

Rockland (7k): -34.05%

Sandisfield (tiny): -27.95%

etc.

There's really no realistic way Coakley pulls this out, unless I completely understand how Boston works versus its suburbs.
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Hash
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« Reply #166 on: January 19, 2010, 08:36:40 PM »
Is there really any way that Coakley can still win this race at this point?

I feel like calling it already.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #167 on: January 19, 2010, 08:37:18 PM »
At quicker glance - agree with Moderate and Dan - turnout and margins are just going to have to be greater in the cities/liberal bastions for Coakley to have a shot IMHO.
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muon2
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« Reply #168 on: January 19, 2010, 08:38:04 PM »
Quote from: Send in the Clowns on January 19, 2010, 08:35:52 PM
About a fifth of Lynn is in and Coakley only leads there by 3%.

A place where Patrick had a 2-1 advantage on Healey.
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Alcon
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« Reply #169 on: January 19, 2010, 08:39:18 PM »
If Coakley is relying on the Boston area, that's a pretty lame margin out of Everett...
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cinyc
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« Reply #170 on: January 19, 2010, 08:39:23 PM »

Unfortunately, Projected turnout seems busted in my spreadsheet.,

Turnout in the towns that are all in so far is in the low 60s.  Brown is doing about as well as Romney, best I can tell.  Dem stronghold Northampton came out to vote so far - in the 70s.

The main problem I'm having is getting the Globe's website to work well enough so I can export the data to Excel.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #171 on: January 19, 2010, 08:39:43 PM »
LOL Brown has 49% in Boston.

Of course, only 2% is in...
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #172 on: January 19, 2010, 08:39:58 PM »
Quote from: muon2 on January 19, 2010, 08:38:04 PM
Quote from: Send in the Clowns on January 19, 2010, 08:35:52 PM
About a fifth of Lynn is in and Coakley only leads there by 3%.

A place where Patrick had a 2-1 advantage on Healey.

O'Brien won it by 5% in 2002.  Al pays attention to it because, well... you know.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #173 on: January 19, 2010, 08:40:42 PM »
Based on the current count, about 50-55% of RV turned out (~ 2.1-2.2 Mio. votes).
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #174 on: January 19, 2010, 08:42:02 PM »
Oh well, anti-climax it is.
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