MA Senate - Special Election Results thread

[Sam Spade]

Atlas MA Special Election Result Page



http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2010/senate/results.html

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_county/MA_Page_0119.html?SITE=AP

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/MA_Page_0119.html?SITE=AP

More to be posted later, maybe....

Thread will be stickied for tonight also.

Special election discussion thread will be reopened in a day or two.

Enjoy!

Sincerely,
Moderating Team

[Sam Spade]

Noting that the AP link no worky- so boston.com is probably best for now.

[Eraserhead]

I'm hearing that Kennedy has surged into first.

[cinyc]

I have a spreadsheet ready to go to analyze the results by county, region, town MHI, and Massachusetts PVI, along with separate lists of the top 10 Republican and Democratic strongholds and Bellwethers (based on PVI), top 10 towns with the most residents 18-29 and 65+ and urban areas.

I should be good to go, as soon as the Boston Globe gets some data in.

[Dan the Roman]

Precinct 3 Winchester @6:49 1299 Votes with a long line
Winchester has 8 precincts and cast about 13,000 votes in 2008

Looks like a 70%+ turnout

[Torie]

Is heath care dead even if Brown loses narrowly?  Maybe.  I know I am squirting lighter fluid on Joe hate around here (almost everyone around here (except me) seems to almost viscerally loathe the man), but is Joe off the health care bill reservation? What do you think?

Lieberman Speaks   [Robert Costa]

From the Hill:

    A victory for Republican Senate candidate Scott Brown in Massachusetts would send a message that voters are "really skeptical about this healthcare bill," Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) said Tuesday.

    Lieberman ultimately voted for that legislation, after weeks of negotiations between his camp and the Democrats with whom he caucuses.

    But the senator told Fox News' Neil Cavuto Tuesday afternoon that a defeat today of one of the bill's strong supporters — Democratic candidate Martha Coakley — would still "be a very loud message from Massachusetts."

    "Well, it's pretty clear that, if Scott Brown doesn't win, it's certainly going to be close, and that in itself is newsworthy," Lieberman said. "And I think the message is — from the voters of Massachusetts — that people are anxious about the future and they're unhappy about what's happening in Washington."

    "They're anxious about the economy, the continued high unemployment," he continued. "They don't like all the partisanship and deal-making here in Washington. And they're really skeptical about this health care bill."

[cinyc]

Precinct 3 Winchester @6:49 1299 Votes with a long line
Winchester has 8 precincts and cast about 13,000 votes in 2008

Looks like a 70%+ turnout

Winchester has an MPVI of -3 (very slightly Republican), FWIW.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Not sure if this will be updated live, but here's the official results page: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

I also found this, if people want to compare results to trends in the past: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6218

[Psychic Octopus]

On my laptop, with the TV in front of me.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

On my laptop, with the TV in front of me.

Are all the networks covering it?  I know FOX and MSNBC are.

[Torie]

Precinct 3 Winchester @6:49 1299 Votes with a long line
Winchester has 8 precincts and cast about 13,000 votes in 2008

Looks like a 70%+ turnout

Winchester has an MPVI of -3 (very slightly Republican), FWIW.

I wonder where the biggest deviation from "normal" pvi behavior will be. Will it be with lower middle class white middle aged voters? Middle aged working class white voters?  What kind of town demographically is Winchester?

[Eraserhead]

Anyone have a live feed for MSNBC?

[Dan the Roman]

Precinct 3 Winchester @6:49 1299 Votes with a long line
Winchester has 8 precincts and cast about 13,000 votes in 2008

Looks like a 70%+ turnout

Winchester has an MPVI of -3 (very slightly Republican), FWIW.

Misleading because it tends to bounce around, and Patrick and Obama did well here. But Romney won it by 22 points in 2002, and Brown has a good shot to take it by a similar margin.

[cinyc]

Not sure if this will be updated live, but here's the official results page: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

I also found this, if people want to compare results to trends in the past: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6218

I will have automatically updating comparisons to the Romney 2002 and Weld 1996 Senate races, plus a (perhaps poor) attempt at an extrapolated turnout comparison to the 2008 presidential election.  2002 and 2008 numbers are the unofficial ones published by the Globe after election day, so how Massachusetts counts absentees is probably irrelevant.

[Sam Spade]

Just FYI - Coakley's fraud alert thing was dated yesterday. (lol)

[Daniel Adams]

Noting that the AP link no worky- so boston.com is probably best for now.

You have to append ?SITE=AP to the AP URL to get it to work, thus.

[You kip if you want to...]

Anyone have a live feed for MSNBC?

http://a962.l2152922961.c21529.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/962/21529/v0001/reflector:22097?MSWMExt=.asf

[Torie]

Not sure if this will be updated live, but here's the official results page: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

I also found this, if people want to compare results to trends in the past: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6218

I will have automatically updating comparisons to the Romney 2002 and Weld 1996 Senate races, plus a (perhaps poor) attempt at an extrapolated turnout comparison to the 2008 presidential election.  2002 and 2008 numbers are the unofficial ones published by the Globe after election day, so how Massachusetts counts absentees is probably irrelevant.

Your spread sheet has more bells and whistles than an aircraft carrier. You must have spent a lot of time constructing it!  I assume that you will be instantly able per your forumlas to see both the pvi and turnout differentials instantly as you enter the numbers town by town. You really are a political junkie aren't you?  

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Not sure if this will be updated live, but here's the official results page: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

I also found this, if people want to compare results to trends in the past: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6218

I will have automatically updating comparisons to the Romney 2002 and Weld 1996 Senate races, plus a (perhaps poor) attempt at an extrapolated turnout comparison to the 2008 presidential election.  2002 and 2008 numbers are the unofficial ones published by the Globe after election day, so how Massachusetts counts absentees is probably irrelevant.

Your spread sheet has more bells and whistles than an aircraft carrier. You must have spent a lot of time constructing it!  I assume that you will be instantly able per your forumlas to see both the pvi and turnout differentials instantly as you enter the numbers town by town. You really are a political junkie aren't you?  

Is there a link to his spreadsheet?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What kind of town demographically is Winchester?

70% of the adult population have degrees, 71% of those in employment have managerial or professional occupations and the median household income is over $100k...

[Torie]

Cinyc most graciously emailed it to me.

[Torie]

What kind of town demographically is Winchester?

70% of the adult population have degrees, 71% of those in employment have managerial or professional occupations and the median household income is over $100k...

Oh. It is kind of like my town then.

[Psychic Octopus]

On my laptop, with the TV in front of me.

Are all the networks covering it?  I know FOX and MSNBC are.

Fox is concerned with it; I think CNN is covering it too.

[cinyc]

Not sure if this will be updated live, but here's the official results page: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

I also found this, if people want to compare results to trends in the past: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6218

I will have automatically updating comparisons to the Romney 2002 and Weld 1996 Senate races, plus a (perhaps poor) attempt at an extrapolated turnout comparison to the 2008 presidential election.  2002 and 2008 numbers are the unofficial ones published by the Globe after election day, so how Massachusetts counts absentees is probably irrelevant.

Your spread sheet has more bells and whistles than an aircraft carrier. You must have spent a lot of time constructing it!  I assume that you will be instantly able per your forumlas to see both the pvi and turnout differentials instantly as you enter the numbers town by town. You really are a political junkie aren't you?  

Is there a link to his spreadsheet?

I've put it up on tinyupload.com here:
http://s000.tinyupload.com/index.php?file_id=83351542825072329140

There will probably be errors - hopefully, not many.  But we'll only know when I actually get real data instead of random test data.

[ajc0918]

40min!!!

WOOHOO!!