MA Senate - Special Election Results thread (user search)
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  MA Senate - Special Election Results thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: MA Senate - Special Election Results thread  (Read 83195 times)
Lunar
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« on: January 19, 2010, 07:40:54 PM »
CNN just said all of the people at Coakley HQ are downcast and looking disappointed
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Lunar
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« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2010, 07:42:58 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on January 19, 2010, 07:41:33 PM
Hey I forgot the most important question of ALL!!!

Who did DAVE LEIP vote for?

(doesn't he live in Mass or something)  Tongue

Statistically, probably Brown.  The Coakley campaign gave up on male Independents long ago
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Lunar
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« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2010, 07:53:42 PM »
Quote from: Beet on January 19, 2010, 07:52:24 PM
It's not too good to be true; it's very shocking but also quite predictable.

In a state where 50 percent are independent, it's not as Democratic as it seems. If Brown can get all Republicans, 2/3rds of independents and 1 in 7 Democrats to switch, he gets 50*.67+5+15=33.5+5+15=53.5 percent.

That assumes they all turn out relative to their percentage of the voter pool. 
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Lunar
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« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2010, 07:58:23 PM »
Quote from: Beet on January 19, 2010, 07:55:19 PM
Quote from: Lunar on January 19, 2010, 07:53:42 PM
Quote from: Beet on January 19, 2010, 07:52:24 PM
It's not too good to be true; it's very shocking but also quite predictable.

In a state where 50 percent are independent, it's not as Democratic as it seems. If Brown can get all Republicans, 2/3rds of independents and 1 in 7 Democrats to switch, he gets 50*.67+5+15=33.5+5+15=53.5 percent.

That assumes they all turn out relative to their percentage of the voter pool. 

Yeah but if anything, Republicans were more energized. If Obama energizes his own base, then all he's managed to do is guarantee 35-50-15 representation. The massive number of independents still screws Coakley.

Yeah, my point was that she was even more screwed than your numbers would indicate Tongue
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Lunar
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« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2010, 08:13:46 PM »
Rasmussen did exit polling saying late-breaking voters backed Coakley by 6% and 22% of Democrats voted Brown.

So we know we're looking at the Democrats losing about 1/5th of Democrats
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Lunar
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« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2010, 08:30:33 PM »
nytimes.com has the results accurate to an additional decimal
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Lunar
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« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2010, 08:57:39 PM »

I just started
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Lunar
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« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2010, 08:58:43 PM »
Quote from: Lief on January 19, 2010, 08:56:02 PM
Democrats better start "finding" some votes in Boston.

They managed to lose a Senate race in MA, what makes you think they are competent enough to rig an election?
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Lunar
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« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2010, 09:01:24 PM »
Everyone should look for Keystone Phil over at the Brown rally
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Lunar
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« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2010, 09:22:54 PM »
Quote from: Meeker on January 19, 2010, 09:16:12 PM
How the hell do you write a concession speech for a night like this?

"Damn, let's all go to the bar across the street."
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Lunar
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« Reply #10 on: January 19, 2010, 09:38:54 PM »
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Lunar
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« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2010, 12:48:02 AM »
http://politics.theatlantic.com/2010/01/this_is_how_a_good_victory_speech_reads.php
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