MA Senate - Special Election Results thread

[Beet]

Suffolk University / 7 News
11/4-8/09; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

Flash-back November 2009:

Favorable / Unfavorable
Deval Patick (D): 43 / 47
Tim Cahill (i): 41 / 13
Martha Coakley (D): 57 / 21
Mike Capuano (D): 38 / 18
Charlie Baker (R): 13 / 7
Christy Mihos (R): 30 / 25
Barack Obama: 62 / 33
Alan Khazei (D): 11 / 9
Steve Pagliuca (D): 35 / 18
Jack E. Robinson (R): 9 / 17
Scott Brown (R): 15 / 8

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 60 / 36
Gov. Patrick: 42 / 51

Do you think Governor Deval Patrick deserves to be re-elected or is it time to elect someone else?
32% deserves re-election, 55% time to elect someone else

2010 Senate Special
Coakley 58%, Brown 27%
Capuano 48%, Brown 29%
Brown 33%, Khazei 30%
Pagliuca 49%, Brown 27%

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ma_2010_gov_sen_special_suffol_1.php

It seems a big part of the problem was the Coakley campaign.

[Beet]

It's not too good to be true; it's very shocking but also quite predictable.

In a state where 50 percent are independent, it's not as Democratic as it seems. If Brown can get all Republicans, 2/3rds of independents and 1 in 7 Democrats to switch, he gets 50*.67+5+15=33.5+5+15=53.5 percent.

[Beet]

It's not too good to be true; it's very shocking but also quite predictable.

In a state where 50 percent are independent, it's not as Democratic as it seems. If Brown can get all Republicans, 2/3rds of independents and 1 in 7 Democrats to switch, he gets 50*.67+5+15=33.5+5+15=53.5 percent.

That assumes they all turn out relative to their percentage of the voter pool. 

Yeah but if anything, Republicans were more energized. If Obama energizes his own base, then all he's managed to do is guarantee 35-50-15 representation. The massive number of independents still screws Coakley.

[Beet]

He's a GenX'er right? A lot of them have a libertarian bent. They grew up in a world that was shedding itself of statist shackles/crutches from the 30 Years' War (1914-1945).

[Beet]

Intrade seems to be 'declaring it' as after trading at 80 all day, Brown has just surged to 90.

[Beet]

I still have hope that Coakley can pull it out. There were no polls for Monday. All she needs to do is make up 5 points in a race that is rapidly changing.... the narrative has certainly changed very quickly over the past couple days even.

[Beet]

Yeah, J.J. is always commenting.

Rasmussen has hyperactivity, much like much of the Right these days... too bad you can't trust them. Rasmussen is fine with horse race polls but when they're crafting questions on other topics it's total BS.

[Beet]

Intrade has crashed.

[Beet]

Democrats haven't changed any rules... they've been strictly following the 60 vote super-majority rule in the Senate even though Republicans have been abusing it.

[Beet]

how long is she going to talk?!

She gave him plenty of extra time to talk in the debates by using her own time to ask him questions, which he used to sound off at length. Never fully made the transition from the courtroom, really.

[Beet]

LOL someone just bought Brown on Intrade now @90. The site has been crashed since just before 8pm, and it just came back up, but the contract isn't expired yet.