MA Senate - Special Election Results thread

[cinyc]

I have a spreadsheet ready to go to analyze the results by county, region, town MHI, and Massachusetts PVI, along with separate lists of the top 10 Republican and Democratic strongholds and Bellwethers (based on PVI), top 10 towns with the most residents 18-29 and 65+ and urban areas.

I should be good to go, as soon as the Boston Globe gets some data in.

[cinyc]

Precinct 3 Winchester @6:49 1299 Votes with a long line
Winchester has 8 precincts and cast about 13,000 votes in 2008

Looks like a 70%+ turnout

Winchester has an MPVI of -3 (very slightly Republican), FWIW.

[cinyc]

Not sure if this will be updated live, but here's the official results page: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

I also found this, if people want to compare results to trends in the past: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6218

I will have automatically updating comparisons to the Romney 2002 and Weld 1996 Senate races, plus a (perhaps poor) attempt at an extrapolated turnout comparison to the 2008 presidential election.  2002 and 2008 numbers are the unofficial ones published by the Globe after election day, so how Massachusetts counts absentees is probably irrelevant.

[cinyc]

Not sure if this will be updated live, but here's the official results page: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

I also found this, if people want to compare results to trends in the past: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6218

I will have automatically updating comparisons to the Romney 2002 and Weld 1996 Senate races, plus a (perhaps poor) attempt at an extrapolated turnout comparison to the 2008 presidential election.  2002 and 2008 numbers are the unofficial ones published by the Globe after election day, so how Massachusetts counts absentees is probably irrelevant.

Your spread sheet has more bells and whistles than an aircraft carrier. You must have spent a lot of time constructing it!  I assume that you will be instantly able per your forumlas to see both the pvi and turnout differentials instantly as you enter the numbers town by town. You really are a political junkie aren't you?  

Is there a link to his spreadsheet?

I've put it up on tinyupload.com here:
http://s000.tinyupload.com/index.php?file_id=83351542825072329140

There will probably be errors - hopefully, not many.  But we'll only know when I actually get real data instead of random test data.

[cinyc]

Your spread sheet has more bells and whistles than an aircraft carrier. You must have spent a lot of time constructing it!  I assume that you will be instantly able per your forumlas to see both the pvi and turnout differentials instantly as you enter the numbers town by town. You really are a political junkie aren't you?  

I didn't try to do much with PVI.  My PVI chart will look like this:


Lean Republican is probably a relative term in Massachusetts.

[cinyc]

FYI -

The spreadsheet uses Boston Globe spelling logic - the kind where Easthampton ends up in between East Danvers and East Hartford.  Data should be exported from the Boston Globe's table.  You can do that by right-clicking on the table at the Globe's results link in Internet Explorer, selecting "Export to Microsoft Excel",  finding and replacing all " of*" (Space of*) with nothing, deleting the turnout column C, deleting rows 2 and 3, and then pasting what's left into the "Imported Results Data" sheet of my spreadsheet.

In theory.

[cinyc]

How long until the first Massachusetts precincts typically report?

[cinyc]

I finally got the Boston Globe Data to download:

[cinyc]

4%:

[cinyc]

By PVI Band (4%):

[cinyc]

By region 4%:

[cinyc]

From the 6% data - Some Bellwethers are in.  It may be a long night if Coakley gets the turnout she needs in Dem strongholds:

[cinyc]

Looks to me like a 8-12% swing in most places. May be a very close election, but nothing seems clear - yet.

Turnout in towns that are all in is in the 60s.

[cinyc]

Does the NYT have a table of towns anywhere?  The Globe's website is sluggish.

[cinyc]

From the 8% data:

[cinyc]

cynic, based on your spreadsheet math, how well is Brown doing?

Unfortunately, Projected turnout seems busted in my spreadsheet.,

Turnout in the towns that are all in so far is in the low 60s.  Brown is doing about as well as Romney, best I can tell.  Dem stronghold Northampton came out to vote so far - in the 70s.

The main problem I'm having is getting the Globe's website to work well enough so I can export the data to Excel.

[cinyc]

20% Data:

[cinyc]

CRAP.  The Boston Globe has Aquinnah listed with the Gs for Gay Head (which it used to be) - that makes my tables wrong.  I need to fix the spreadsheet.

[cinyc]

I think I fixed the data issue.  

Brown will win this.  He's winning the Bellwethers  by 5 and Republican PVI Areas.  Turnout is a bit lower in Democrat areas than Republican ones.

[cinyc]

56% in:

[cinyc]

[cinyc]

64% Data:

[cinyc]

Big cities - just WOW - Horrible turnout:

[cinyc]

The Boston Globe's website isn't letting me download the newest data.  This chart is with 64% in and tells everything you need to know about what happened.  Turnout down - way down - in Democrat areas.  Turnout better in more Republican areas.

[cinyc]

I don't think I posted this chart before.  It's vote by town Median Household Income from the 1999 census.  With 64% in (Boston.com stillisn't cooperating) Coakley won the towns with poorest households. Brown took most of the rest, though he did better in the middle than among the rich.

Again, turnout differential from 2008 goes up with income.