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Author Topic: NY-01/SUSA-FDL: Bishop in a close race  (Read 1843 times)
Rowan
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« on: January 20, 2010, 10:30:54 am »
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NY-01(SurveyUSA)

Bishop(D-Inc): 47%
Altschuler(R): 45%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=02b53979-1e5f-47fc-82e1-64b0fb96602e&c=158
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Sam Spade
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E: 2.84, S: 0.00

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« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2010, 11:23:24 am »
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I'm not going to do anything with this until Joe and I get moderating control back over the Senatorial election polls, but I'm going to request that House polls be put into Senatorial election polls board unless Dave creates a House election polls child board (which I may ask for).
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Rowan
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« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2010, 12:16:45 pm »
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Finally we got a board for these.
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Tender Branson
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E: -7.23, S: -5.39

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« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2010, 02:52:25 pm »
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Someone seems to have lots of money at firedoglake to commission these polls on a weekly basis.

Not that I have anything against it, they should continue to do so until November ... Smiley
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2010, 03:51:18 pm »
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Looking good, Looking good. We may finally see the end of Bishop.
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He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!
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« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2010, 03:53:02 pm »
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interesting tint to be added to a potential July Hamptons weekend.
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"If the Constitution means anything, it surely means that the president does not have unreviewable authority to summarily execute any American whom he concludes is an enemy of the state"

registered somewhere in Georgia AFE
Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2010, 04:16:41 pm »
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Altschuler needs to increase his support among women voters and get the other 10% of Republicans who disapprove of Obama to support him(74% of Repubs disapprove of Obama but only 66% of Repubs support Altschuler. Adding more points among Independents wouldn't hurt either.
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He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!
Rowan
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« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2010, 04:28:39 pm »
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Looks like an absurdly tight voter screen. They only have 1% of the electorate as 18-34.
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xavier110
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« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2010, 06:16:19 pm »
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I live in this district. That 1% sample is a little ridiculous, but it's definitely not pushing 6 or 7%.

Just from what I've seen/heard - Bishop will lose. I don't know how he's gotten away with such a liberal voting record in a swing district, aside from being generally well-liked in the Town of Southampton.
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2010, 06:19:50 pm »
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Quote from: xavier110 on January 20, 2010, 06:16:19 pm
I live in this district. That 1% sample is a little ridiculous, but it's definitely not pushing 6 or 7%.

Just from what I've seen/heard - Bishop will lose. I don't know how he's gotten away with such a liberal voting record in a swing district, aside from being generally well-liked in the Town of Southampton.

Crappy candidate in 2004, and two waves in 2006 and 2008.
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xavier110
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« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2010, 06:23:53 pm »
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Quote from: Senator North Carolina Yankee, PPT on January 20, 2010, 06:19:50 pm
Quote from: xavier110 on January 20, 2010, 06:16:19 pm
I live in this district. That 1% sample is a little ridiculous, but it's definitely not pushing 6 or 7%.

Just from what I've seen/heard - Bishop will lose. I don't know how he's gotten away with such a liberal voting record in a swing district, aside from being generally well-liked in the Town of Southampton.

Crappy candidate in 2004, and two waves in 2006 and 2008.

To be honest, he's had a crappy opponent all three times. And the old people genuinely like him a lot. He could still probably pull it off with a solid campaign, but I really think health care has killed him. (He was one of the first congressmen, if not the first, bum-rushed at a town hall.)
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2010, 06:36:05 pm »
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Quote from: xavier110 on January 20, 2010, 06:23:53 pm
Quote from: Senator North Carolina Yankee, PPT on January 20, 2010, 06:19:50 pm
Quote from: xavier110 on January 20, 2010, 06:16:19 pm
I live in this district. That 1% sample is a little ridiculous, but it's definitely not pushing 6 or 7%.

Just from what I've seen/heard - Bishop will lose. I don't know how he's gotten away with such a liberal voting record in a swing district, aside from being generally well-liked in the Town of Southampton.

Crappy candidate in 2004, and two waves in 2006 and 2008.

To be honest, he's had a crappy opponent all three times. And the old people genuinely like him a lot. He could still probably pull it off with a solid campaign, but I really think health care has killed him. (He was one of the first congressmen, if not the first, bum-rushed at a town hall.)

Well even if he had good opponents in 2006 or 2008, he would have still won reelection because of the wave.
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Lief
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« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2010, 06:45:48 pm »
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Quote from: RowanBrandon on January 20, 2010, 04:28:39 pm
Looks like an absurdly tight voter screen. They only have 1% of the electorate as 18-34.

SUSA's last two polls for FDL also has ridiculously tight voter screen: 5% in AR-02 and 3% in OH-01.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2010, 07:00:50 pm »
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SUSA's internals are always screwy, but their toplines tend to be solid.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #14 on: January 20, 2010, 08:32:44 pm »
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I actually expected Bishop to be trailing.
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« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2010, 10:40:47 pm »
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79% over 50. 1% 18-34......
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Lunar
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« Reply #16 on: January 21, 2010, 04:17:06 am »
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I'm not sure what FDL is doing here in terms of financial gain.  These polls are expensive and they don't have Kos's resources.  And if I were an activist these results would make me not want to activate
« Last Edit: January 21, 2010, 05:08:10 am by Lunar »Logged
this is real
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