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| | | |-+  NY-01/SUSA-FDL: Bishop in a close race
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Author Topic: NY-01/SUSA-FDL: Bishop in a close race  (Read 1950 times)
Rowan
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« on: January 20, 2010, 10:30:54 am »
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NY-01(SurveyUSA)

Bishop(D-Inc): 47%
Altschuler(R): 45%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=02b53979-1e5f-47fc-82e1-64b0fb96602e&c=158
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2010, 11:23:24 am »
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I'm not going to do anything with this until Joe and I get moderating control back over the Senatorial election polls, but I'm going to request that House polls be put into Senatorial election polls board unless Dave creates a House election polls child board (which I may ask for).
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Rowan
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« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2010, 12:16:45 pm »
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Finally we got a board for these.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2010, 02:52:25 pm »
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Someone seems to have lots of money at firedoglake to commission these polls on a weekly basis.

Not that I have anything against it, they should continue to do so until November ... Smiley
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2010, 03:51:18 pm »
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Looking good, Looking good. We may finally see the end of Bishop.
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He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



tweed
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« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2010, 03:53:02 pm »
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interesting tint to be added to a potential July Hamptons weekend.
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they live in between a, 'what is' and 'what if?'
Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2010, 04:16:41 pm »
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Altschuler needs to increase his support among women voters and get the other 10% of Republicans who disapprove of Obama to support him(74% of Repubs disapprove of Obama but only 66% of Repubs support Altschuler. Adding more points among Independents wouldn't hurt either.
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Rowan
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« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2010, 04:28:39 pm »
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Looks like an absurdly tight voter screen. They only have 1% of the electorate as 18-34.
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xavier110
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« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2010, 06:16:19 pm »
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I live in this district. That 1% sample is a little ridiculous, but it's definitely not pushing 6 or 7%.

Just from what I've seen/heard - Bishop will lose. I don't know how he's gotten away with such a liberal voting record in a swing district, aside from being generally well-liked in the Town of Southampton.
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2010, 06:19:50 pm »
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I live in this district. That 1% sample is a little ridiculous, but it's definitely not pushing 6 or 7%.

Just from what I've seen/heard - Bishop will lose. I don't know how he's gotten away with such a liberal voting record in a swing district, aside from being generally well-liked in the Town of Southampton.

Crappy candidate in 2004, and two waves in 2006 and 2008.
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He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



xavier110
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« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2010, 06:23:53 pm »
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I live in this district. That 1% sample is a little ridiculous, but it's definitely not pushing 6 or 7%.

Just from what I've seen/heard - Bishop will lose. I don't know how he's gotten away with such a liberal voting record in a swing district, aside from being generally well-liked in the Town of Southampton.

Crappy candidate in 2004, and two waves in 2006 and 2008.

To be honest, he's had a crappy opponent all three times. And the old people genuinely like him a lot. He could still probably pull it off with a solid campaign, but I really think health care has killed him. (He was one of the first congressmen, if not the first, bum-rushed at a town hall.)
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2010, 06:36:05 pm »
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I live in this district. That 1% sample is a little ridiculous, but it's definitely not pushing 6 or 7%.

Just from what I've seen/heard - Bishop will lose. I don't know how he's gotten away with such a liberal voting record in a swing district, aside from being generally well-liked in the Town of Southampton.

Crappy candidate in 2004, and two waves in 2006 and 2008.

To be honest, he's had a crappy opponent all three times. And the old people genuinely like him a lot. He could still probably pull it off with a solid campaign, but I really think health care has killed him. (He was one of the first congressmen, if not the first, bum-rushed at a town hall.)

Well even if he had good opponents in 2006 or 2008, he would have still won reelection because of the wave.
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Lief
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« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2010, 06:45:48 pm »
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Looks like an absurdly tight voter screen. They only have 1% of the electorate as 18-34.

SUSA's last two polls for FDL also has ridiculously tight voter screen: 5% in AR-02 and 3% in OH-01.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2010, 07:00:50 pm »
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SUSA's internals are always screwy, but their toplines tend to be solid.
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PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #14 on: January 20, 2010, 08:32:44 pm »
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I actually expected Bishop to be trailing.
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Smash255
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« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2010, 10:40:47 pm »
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79% over 50. 1% 18-34......
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Lunar
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« Reply #16 on: January 21, 2010, 04:17:06 am »
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I'm not sure what FDL is doing here in terms of financial gain.  These polls are expensive and they don't have Kos's resources.  And if I were an activist these results would make me not want to activate
« Last Edit: January 21, 2010, 05:08:10 am by Lunar »Logged

this is real
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