Will Obama get reelected?

[Derek]

No president has ever been reelected with an approval rating below 50%. He isn't looking too good especially if he can't keep Massachusetts blue. Republicans will portray him as the leader of every country except the U.S. as they should. Kids singing out Obama in an attack ad will send the message. I mean seriously anything could happen but with Massachusetts going red tomorrow, there won't be much he can do. Who is our next president in this case? Whoever runs against him.

[Psychic Octopus]

Obama will only lose if the Republicans are sane and nominate someone competent and who can attract independent voters (Romney, Pawlenty). If they don't, and choose to nominate Palin or someone else on the fringe, they deserve to lose. If I had to bet on intrade, I think we'll see a President Romney come 2013.

[Bo]

Obama will only lose if the Republicans are sane and nominate someone competent and who can attract independent voters (Romney, Pawlenty). If they don't, and choose to nominate Palin or someone else on the fringe, they deserve to lose. If I had to bet on intrade, I think we'll see a President Romney come 2013.

And if unemployment is 8% or greater on election day.

[J. J.]

No president has ever been reelected with an approval rating below 50%. He isn't looking too good especially if he can't keep Massachusetts blue. Republicans will portray him as the leader of every country except the U.S. as they should. Kids singing out Obama in an attack ad will send the message. I mean seriously anything could happen but with Massachusetts going red tomorrow, there won't be much he can do. Who is our next president in this case? Whoever runs against him.

Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton all had first term numbers below 50% at some points.  The key will be when.  

15-18 months from now, if Obama is below 45%, it is probably over.  Clinton had already hit his basement number, and slumped early.  It is interesting to not hat he was on a slight upswing at this point.

[Psychic Octopus]

No president has ever been reelected with an approval rating below 50%. He isn't looking too good especially if he can't keep Massachusetts blue. Republicans will portray him as the leader of every country except the U.S. as they should. Kids singing out Obama in an attack ad will send the message. I mean seriously anything could happen but with Massachusetts going red tomorrow, there won't be much he can do. Who is our next president in this case? Whoever runs against him.

Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton all had first term numbers below 50% at some points.  The key will be when.  

15-18 months from now, if Obama is below 45%, it is probably over.  Clinton had already hit his basement number, and slumped early.  It is interesting to not hat he was on a slight upswing at this point.

I heard somewhere that this is the lowest ever recorded for a President entering his second year. It seems to me that there is a clear path Obama can follow that will lead to his loss, and it is the most likely at this point. The GOP won't retake the Senate, and it is unlikely at this moment that they will retake the House. But they will make enough gains to ensure Obama will not pass anything remotely ambitious. Let's say they 5-7 senate seats in November, and pick up around 30 in the House. It still leaves the Democrats with a clear majority, and Obama wouldn't be able to capitalize on the same kind of effect Clinton did in 1996. Plus, I'm not optimistic about the economy, either.

[Bo]

No president has ever been reelected with an approval rating below 50%.

What about Truman and Bush Jr.?

[pbrower2a]

No president has ever been reelected with an approval rating below 50%. He isn't looking too good especially if he can't keep Massachusetts blue. Republicans will portray him as the leader of every country except the U.S. as they should. Kids singing out Obama in an attack ad will send the message. I mean seriously anything could happen but with Massachusetts going red tomorrow, there won't be much he can do. Who is our next president in this case? Whoever runs against him.

Someone heavily involved in projecting political races contradicts you (Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com). He knows his stuff even if it is all statistical models:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/how-bad-can-obama-screw-up-and-still.html

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I can't carry the graphic over, but Dubya had an approval rating near 50 (48%) and barely won.  Other things matter:

1. Is the opponent an attractive candidate?

Does the challenger offer fresh alternatives and exude optimism while avoiding the charge of crankiness and extremism? Does he seem effete? A Reagan-like figure could defeat a foundering Obama in 2012 -- except that the Republican Party has nobody of the sort.

Dubya was a dreadful candidate, but his campaign proved adept at showing John Kerry as an unpatriotic, even radical figure. Negative campaigns, contemptible as they are, can work.

2. How competent is the incumbent as a campaigner?

Barack Obama proved one of the adept campaigners in American history. He was able to offset many realities that would have defeated someone who didn't look like any prior President, had a short career as a US Senator,  had no record of military heroism.

He used his appearances where they could do him the most good, he didn't waste advertising efforts on places unlikely to switch sides, pulling out efforts when his victories were assured -- or doomed.  He had a superb campaign apparatus. Do you expect him to pull that campaign apparatus from mothballs in 2012 if he must?

3. The President isn't in campaign mode 24/7 once he takes office.

That's all for the best. Fiery rhetoric is great for turning out the vote; it is ineffective for achieving legislative results.  The President must govern, and governing isn't as exciting to the person not a political junkie as is the campaign. Big deal!  Fiery rhetoric does not translate into good public policy that makes life better for people. Politicians who can't turn off the fiery rhetoric become the demagogues who solve nothing. Calm realism more likely works wonders. 

4. Until January 2010 he faced no new crises. Now he has one, and Americans can judge him on his response. He can use his passion to exhort Americans to help Haiti, but what the US government does depends upon his attitudes to a horrible situation. Calmness and reason trump panic and apathy every time. Haiti in after its earthquake is infinitely worse than New Orleans immediately after Hurricane Katrina... but so far nobody seems to give catcalls to President Obama that they did for George W. Bush. Well, there is Rush Limbaugh, who becomes increasingly a fringe character -- a good thing in itself.

5. It's the economy. Most people vote on pocketbook issues. If the economy is in better shape in November 2012 than in 2008, then Obama wins. Of course, even that is subjective. Some people prefer that it be possible to "get good (domestic) help (cheaply)", which is not the same as people earning good wages in a strong economy in which people can say NO to the boss. 

...


Nate Silver suggests that the break-even point for winning and losing is around 45%. Gerald Ford lost barely with something slightly lower, and Dubya won barely with something a bit higher. 50% approval? The opponent has to be very good or appealing.  48%? Negative campaigning works.

That may not apply to individual states. Example: even with an approval rating of 60% in Utah, he would lose to Mitt Romney, and with a similar approval rating in Arkansas, he would  lose to Mike Huckabee.  But there are far more contests, and Obama would win in a huge landslide in electoral votes.     

[Mr.Phips]

No president has ever been reelected with an approval rating below 50%. He isn't looking too good especially if he can't keep Massachusetts blue. Republicans will portray him as the leader of every country except the U.S. as they should. Kids singing out Obama in an attack ad will send the message. I mean seriously anything could happen but with Massachusetts going red tomorrow, there won't be much he can do. Who is our next president in this case? Whoever runs against him.

Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton all had first term numbers below 50% at some points.  The key will be when.  

15-18 months from now, if Obama is below 45%, it is probably over.  Clinton had already hit his basement number, and slumped early.  It is interesting to not hat he was on a slight upswing at this point.

Carter did fall to 39% in Spring 1978. 

[J. J.]

No president has ever been reelected with an approval rating below 50%. He isn't looking too good especially if he can't keep Massachusetts blue. Republicans will portray him as the leader of every country except the U.S. as they should. Kids singing out Obama in an attack ad will send the message. I mean seriously anything could happen but with Massachusetts going red tomorrow, there won't be much he can do. Who is our next president in this case? Whoever runs against him.

Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton all had first term numbers below 50% at some points.  The key will be when.  

15-18 months from now, if Obama is below 45%, it is probably over.  Clinton had already hit his basement number, and slumped early.  It is interesting to not hat he was on a slight upswing at this point.

I heard somewhere that this is the lowest ever recorded for a President entering his second year. It seems to me that there is a clear path Obama can follow that will lead to his loss, and it is the most likely at this point. The GOP won't retake the Senate, and it is unlikely at this moment that they will retake the House. But they will make enough gains to ensure Obama will not pass anything remotely ambitious. Let's say they 5-7 senate seats in November, and pick up around 30 in the House. It still leaves the Democrats with a clear majority, and Obama wouldn't be able to capitalize on the same kind of effect Clinton did in 1996. Plus, I'm not optimistic about the economy, either.

On Gallup (first term):

 Clinton collapsed in the summer/fall of 1993.  While he dipped again, he never had lower numbers.  Reagan's low was January 1983, IIRC, and was recovering over the summer.  Nixon had a slide in 1971, but he never dropped below 48%.

The thing is, these three started out very low.  Carter had initial numbers much better than Obama, but even at the mid terms, he ranged 49-52%. 

A fortnight before the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, GHBW was at 60%.  The first Gallup showed him at 51%, and I've wondered if that was an outlier.  One a month later had him at 63%.

[J. J.]

No president has ever been reelected with an approval rating below 50%. He isn't looking too good especially if he can't keep Massachusetts blue. Republicans will portray him as the leader of every country except the U.S. as they should. Kids singing out Obama in an attack ad will send the message. I mean seriously anything could happen but with Massachusetts going red tomorrow, there won't be much he can do. Who is our next president in this case? Whoever runs against him.

Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton all had first term numbers below 50% at some points.  The key will be when.  

15-18 months from now, if Obama is below 45%, it is probably over.  Clinton had already hit his basement number, and slumped early.  It is interesting to not hat he was on a slight upswing at this point.

Carter did fall to 39% in Spring 1978. 

He rebounded, but then slumped in 1979, down to 28%.

[Derek]

NO he won't be.