This is the first year since I became interested in politics that the concept of redistricting has been used. I'm still a little confused on the process, so if anyone could clarify for me, I'd appreciate it. I just have a couple questions.
First, when is the redistricting going to take place? In November 2010, representatives will still be elected from the current congressional districts, right? I'm assuming they will go into effect for the 113th Congress (2013-2015)? Also, does the redistricting process take place on the same day (do all the state legislatures do it on the same day)? I guess the question I'm asking is when will we know the new congressional districts?
Also, is there any data out there right now as to what states will gain/lose seats and which ones will stay the same? Someone on here (believe his name is muon2) has a neat little diagram as his signature on here; was just wondering how people come up with that. I know it's based upon population but was just curious if there's a website out there that shows the forecast/most likely seats/district each state will have.
The official census date is April 1, 2010. The Census Bureau will spend the next few months doing follow-up trying to get a more complete count. In late December, they will release the population count for each State, as well as the number of representatives apportioned to each State.
Currently, the population of Missouri is about 8.5 / 435 of the total population of the 50 States. Since it can only have a whole number of representatives, it will be apportioned 9 representatives like it currently has, or 8 representatives. Whether it gets 8 or 9 depends not only its share of the population, but its share compared to other States. For example, Minnesota has a population equivalent to about 7.5 / 435 of the total population. A simplified version would have the two states apportioned 9 and 7, or 8 and 8. It is much more complex this census because there are about 10 states vying for the final 6 seats.
The latest census bureau estimates are for July 2009, 9 months before the census. The census bureau estimates are based on a demographic model. They have fairly reliable information about births and deaths, though some may be attributed to the wrong location. They have less reliable information about migration, whether inter-county, interstate, or international. The 2009 estimates have to be projected forward to 2010.
The redistricting (or reapportionment) process is handled differently in each State. In many cases, there is no provision for congressional redistricting. Federal law requires representatives to be elected by districts. US Supreme Court rulings require the districts to have practically identical population. Legislatures are the default body to provide for the <i>manner</i> which representatives are elected, which includes delineation of congressional boundaries.
If the number of representatives for Missouri does not change, Missouri could just leave the districts as they are. The district boundaries would then be challenged in court as not being sufficiently equal in population, and the court would draw the boundaries. The same thing will happen if the legislature fails to draw new district boundaries (failure would happen if a districting plan fails to pass both houses of the legislature, or if it did, and the governor vetoed the redistricting bill, and both houses did not override the veto).
Conceivably, someone could argue that Missouri's current districts aren't of equal population (according to the ACS they vary in size from 592 for CD 1 (St Louis) to 692 for CD 7 (Springfield + southwest). The state would argue that they don't have sufficiently accurate data available; that it would increase political instability and make administration of elections more complex; and since the apportionment was based on the census, the districts should also be based on the census.
If Missouri keeps 9 districts, the legislature would probably just adjust boundaries enough to make the district populations equal again. There probably isn't the political will to do radical redistricting. If the two houses have different parties in control, or they differ from the party of the governor, there could be a deadlock (Republicans will want to add as many Democrats as possible to the Kansas City and St.Louis seats (CD 5 and 1), while the Democrats will want to do the opposite. In case of deadlock, then the courts will rule that existing districts can not be used for the 2012 election, and the courts (state or federal) will draw the new districts.
If Missouri loses a representative, there will have to a radical re-drawing of the districts, since one will have to be eliminated. No representative wants to lose his district, or have a bunch of voters who have no idea who he is, or worse yet are of the opposite party.
It is somewhat tough to get rid of districts in the corners of the State, and the (much) greater St.Louis area will still have 3 districts (about 270,000 people would need to be added to the area covered by CD1, 2, and 3. So that would make CD4 the logical target. The KC districts are a bit odd in that you have the two suburban districts CD4 and CD6 extending so far out into rural areas. If CD4 were eliminated, CD6 and CD5 would take the suburban areas, and CD7, 8, and 9 would take the rural areas, and the St.Louis districts would be stretched out into more rural areas, though it might be feasible to have CD2 to include Columbia.
Option 2 would be to reduce the number of St.Louis districts to 2. But you would have to have Jefferson and St.Charles counties being the anchor of CD8 and 9, so it would be similar to the current configuration around KC, except with two inner districts instead of 1.
Option 3 would be to create a northern district the extending south from the Iowa border, merging CD6 and CD9, and distributing the southern remnants of those districts among other districts.
Nobody will like any of these options so it is more likely that it will end up in the courts.
Around March or April 2011 the Census Bureau will deliver the detailed census data to the States. The legislative staff or similar organization will load it onto the redistricting computers. In 2010, PCs are powerful enough to handle redistricting, so the political parties will be drawing their own plans as well.
In 2001, the congressional redistricting bill was introduced on March 15, but it was just a shell of a bill. It took the 1990s redistricting bill and removed the existing district definitions, but did not insert any new boundaries:
So before the law read:
District 1 consists of: (followed by pages and pages of counties, cities, census tracts, census block groups, and census blocks)
And simply deleted everything after so it read:
District 1 consists of:
District 2 consists of:
etc.
In early May the House redistricting revealed its actual plan and this was passed by the House on on an 85:70 vote. It then when went to the Senate, where a different map was inserted, which was approved by the Senate on a 28:5 vote. The House then agreed to the Senate map on a 117:37 vote, and it was signed by a governor on June 1.
So most of the map drawing was actually done in April and May. Given the margin of the first House vote, it probably was a party line vote. At that point either the governor let it be known that he would veto that plan, or the senate said it was unacceptable, or perhaps would delay action until the end of the session (at the end of May). So an acceptable compromise was drawn and the legislature was able to pass it at the end of the session.
The Missouri Constitution provides that Senate and House districts are to be drawn by apportionment commissions, with a different commission for each house. Commissioners are nominated by the two major political parties. In the case of the House apportionment commission, each party congressional committee nominates two persons, and the governor appoints one. This ensures that each party has 9 members, but may make it totally impossible for them to come to any sort of compromise. For the Senate apportionment commission each state party committee nominates 10 persons, of which the governor appoints 5.
In 2001, neither commission was able to approve a plan by the deadline in late August, so redistricting was turned over to 6 appellate judges appointed by the state supreme court (this backup procedure is also found in the Missouri constitution).
