Party control over redistricting
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  Party control over redistricting
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Author Topic: Party control over redistricting  (Read 5546 times)
nclib
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« on: January 21, 2010, 09:38:00 PM »

The map below indicates which party will likely control redistricting. I've used the party favored for governor and the current state legislative composition (unless anyone knows any state that is favored to flip).

Red = Democratic
Blue = Republican
Green = split
Gray = non-partisan body (or at-large)



How will this all play out?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2010, 09:51:23 PM »

There's a good chance that the remaining Deep South Democratic legislatures will fall pretty soon.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2010, 10:55:38 PM »
« Edited: January 21, 2010, 10:58:10 PM by Senator North Carolina Yankee, PPT »

There's a good chance that the remaining Deep South Democratic legislatures will fall pretty soon.

^^^This

I would shift TN and OK to the Blue collumn. IN, OH, PA, MI might fall under complete GOP control as well depending on whether Republican Governor victories can bring in an all GOP legislature. AL might fall, but I am not sure if it will happen in 2010.
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ottermax
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« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2010, 12:54:51 AM »

This looks really bad in Florida and Texas. Hopefully Michigan will be fixed.
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muon2
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« Reply #4 on: January 22, 2010, 05:21:16 PM »

CA will be using a nonpartisan commission for the 2010 cycle. Prop 11 passed in 2008.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #5 on: January 22, 2010, 07:23:44 PM »

CA will be using a nonpartisan commission for the 2010 cycle. Prop 11 passed in 2008.

I read somewhere that, that only dealt with the State legislature. And it said that if it had dealt with US House seats Pelosi would have mobilized millions to defeat it.


The GOP should back non-partisan redistricting reform. Historically the Democrats have dominated the process, only in 2002 did the GOP dominate by controlling the big states.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #6 on: January 22, 2010, 09:20:47 PM »

Florida Repubs need to protect themselves. The new "Fair" Districts Florida just qualified for the ballot. It's a mostly dem/ liberal proposition but it would deff hurt the GOP majority congressional districts.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #7 on: January 22, 2010, 10:21:09 PM »

There's a good chance that the remaining Deep South Democratic legislatures will fall pretty soon.

^^^This

I would shift TN and OK to the Blue collumn. IN, OH, PA, MI might fall under complete GOP control as well depending on whether Republican Governor victories can bring in an all GOP legislature. AL might fall, but I am not sure if it will happen in 2010.

The thin Dem majorities in Indiana and Pennsylvania are obviously going to collapse this year, and possibly Ohio as well, assuming Strickland gets washed out. Michigan, on the other hand, has a 66-43 Dem majority (with one Dem vacancy); I doubt it's going to be flipping regardless of how bad the governor's race goes.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #8 on: January 22, 2010, 11:26:04 PM »

I thought Iowa was nonpartisan?
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muon2
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« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2010, 07:56:58 AM »

CA will be using a nonpartisan commission for the 2010 cycle. Prop 11 passed in 2008.

I read somewhere that, that only dealt with the State legislature. And it said that if it had dealt with US House seats Pelosi would have mobilized millions to defeat it.


The GOP should back non-partisan redistricting reform. Historically the Democrats have dominated the process, only in 2002 did the GOP dominate by controlling the big states.

I stand corrected, I was getting ahead of myself. It is likely, however, that there will be an initiative in 2010 to give congressional redistricting to the now created commission. Given that the commission now exists and if the electorate is angry with the status quo, then I think that such an initiative would stand a good chance of passage.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2010, 10:19:45 PM »


It is. 
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #11 on: January 23, 2010, 10:34:00 PM »

There's a good chance that the remaining Deep South Democratic legislatures will fall pretty soon.

^^^This

I would shift TN and OK to the Blue collumn. IN, OH, PA, MI might fall under complete GOP control as well depending on whether Republican Governor victories can bring in an all GOP legislature. AL might fall, but I am not sure if it will happen in 2010.
If I had to guess, Indiana will be blue after the 2010 elections. We have an overwhelming lead in the Senate, and we barely trail the Democrats in the House. I know of at least one district that will flip, mine, and since 2010 will be much more Republican-friendly, especially in Indiana where Daniels has very high approval ratings, I expect us to control everything.
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nclib
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« Reply #12 on: January 23, 2010, 10:34:20 PM »


I put it as split since IIRC the legislature has some role - either initial recommendation or final approval. Either way, the map likely will not favor one party over the other.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #13 on: January 24, 2010, 09:59:58 AM »

At this point Ohio is really a complete tossup.
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Bo
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« Reply #14 on: January 24, 2010, 02:16:27 PM »

Do any of you think Bob McDonnell will be successful in luring two Virginia Democratic State Senators from their seats into his administration? If he is successful, Republicans will have complete control of redistricting in Virginia.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #15 on: January 24, 2010, 03:06:37 PM »
« Edited: January 24, 2010, 03:08:10 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

Do any of you think Bob McDonnell will be successful in luring two Virginia Democratic State Senators from their seats into his administration? If he is successful, Republicans will have complete control of redistricting in Virginia.

Nope, that time has passed. McDonnell's cabinet was sworn in the other day, and the time to do that would have been before Marsden won the special election.

Edit: Also, regardless of redistricting, the Democrats are probably not going to hold the Senate after the 2011 elections, because their majority rests on a number of DINOs in very Republican districts. On the flip side, there are no easy Senate targets left for the Democrats.
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Bo
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« Reply #16 on: January 24, 2010, 08:16:40 PM »

On the flip side, there are no easy Senate targets left for the Democrats.

Don't you mean for the Republicans?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #17 on: January 24, 2010, 10:27:55 PM »

On the flip side, there are no easy Senate targets left for the Democrats.

Don't you mean for the Republicans?

I meant, there are no Republican-held Senate seats that would be easy targets.
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nhmagic
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« Reply #18 on: January 24, 2010, 10:38:09 PM »

Maine and NH could both go to split control this year.  NH is less likely to do so than Maine though.
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Bo
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« Reply #19 on: January 24, 2010, 10:41:56 PM »

Maine and NH could both go to split control this year.  NH is less likely to do so than Maine though.

I don't think it will have any impact on who wins there, though, unlike in some other states.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #20 on: January 25, 2010, 12:32:04 AM »

At this point Ohio is really a complete tossup.

If anything Republicans have the upper hand.  It wouldn't take much for them to flip the State House and they already control the State Senate by a wide margin.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #21 on: January 26, 2010, 10:13:41 PM »

I think the Republicans have a shot at picking up the North Carolina State Senate.
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jfern
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« Reply #22 on: January 26, 2010, 10:25:41 PM »

California has some complicated commission with equal numbers of registered Democrats and registered Republicans.

Anyways, yes, those PA, OH, and MI governor races are important. If the Democrat wins, they can block some extreme Republican gerrymander. The main reason that the Republicans have the legislature in those states is their gerrymander.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #23 on: January 27, 2010, 03:48:01 AM »

California has some complicated commission with equal numbers of registered Democrats and registered Republicans.

Anyways, yes, those PA, OH, and MI governor races are important. If the Democrat wins, they can block some extreme Republican gerrymander. The main reason that the Republicans have the legislature in those states is their gerrymander.

The Michigan House is pretty safely Dem.  They have an almost two to one majority there. 
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #24 on: January 27, 2010, 03:52:40 AM »

California has some complicated commission with equal numbers of registered Democrats and registered Republicans.

Anyways, yes, those PA, OH, and MI governor races are important. If the Democrat wins, they can block some extreme Republican gerrymander. The main reason that the Republicans have the legislature in those states is their gerrymander.
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