Bernanke re-nomination in serious trouble

[Lief 🗽]

Bernanke has been an absolute failure as Fed Chair, and it's really only corporate and banking shills (like jscfmt) that support the guy. Unfortunately, a majority of the Senate is made up of corporate and banking shills, so we'll see what happens. Boxer's announcement that she's voting against him is very good news though.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Also, heard a good argument for ditching Bernanke - he's now damaged goods and we need some one with the political capital and support that will be needed to take away the punch bowl when it becomes time to do so.

Fox?  Rush?

CNBC

[© tweed]

Intrade still puts him at 73.0

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Bernanke has been an absolute failure as Fed Chair, and it's really only corporate and banking shills (like jscfmt) that support the guy. Unfortunately, a majority of the Senate is made up of corporate and banking shills, so we'll see what happens. Boxer's announcement that she's voting against him is very good news though.

so, what exactly would you do if you were Fed Chairman?

[JSojourner]

So who would be better than Bernanke?  I don't follow this stuff like I should.

Paul Krugman

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

So who would be better than Bernanke?  I don't follow this stuff like I should.

Paul Krugman

so, what exactly would you want Paul Krugman to do?

[Lief 🗽]

So who would be better than Bernanke?  I don't follow this stuff like I should.

Paul Krugman

so, what exactly would you want Paul Krugman to do?

Care about unemployment? Disclose which banks the Fed gave direct loans to? Not worry about inflation like an idiot at a time like this? Not suggest that we take a hatchet to social security and medicare?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

So who would be better than Bernanke?  I don't follow this stuff like I should.

Paul Krugman

so, what exactly would you want Paul Krugman to do?

Care about unemployment?

well, it would be a tad difficult for the Fed to be more accommodative than 0%.

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Disclose which banks the Fed gave direct loans to?

has already been done and is more of an issue for Timothy Geithner, which is why people don't think he will survive this year

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Not worry about inflation like an idiot at a time like this?

in this case, Ben is your best friend...how could anyone say Ben is worried about inflation when he has rates at 0% and has been printing paper faster than the New York Times?!

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Not suggest that we take a hatchet to social security and medicare?

i thought it was Obama who wanted to slash medicare?

[Sam Spade]

So who would be better than Bernanke?  I don't follow this stuff like I should.

Paul Krugman

Krugman = idiot.

I'll take Volcker.  Markets would rally too, on that news.  But the loose Fed policy would be dead.  Better for the long run of the country, but means the next few years would really suck.

That being said, I agree with jmfcst.  Markets will go down hard if Bernanke does not win renomination.  Maybe not as hard as he thinks (the technicals - see my post below - are not there for that, now), but whatever.

I've long had a theory that during our past 25 year bout with excess liquidity and credit, markets go up so long as what is being told are lies that are certain lies, but when uncertainty creeps up in the form of the possibility of the truth coming out, someone yells FIRE and therein proceeds an exodus to jump out the window.

In other words - a lot of the stock market drop may have had to do with the potential awareness that we might have to face the unknown (and uncertain) truth of exactly how many billions/trillions of losses are embedded and being hidden in the country's banks and within the Fed and how many losses have yet to occur.  If we ever discover the answer to that question...

Of course, maybe none of this has any effect on the markets and it was already in the cards anyway.  Witness this post last Wednesday:

bought 22.5k shares of AMD at 9.10...they had a good news day,but I will put a tight stop on it

I would.  The market technicals suggest on the broader indices that longs need to be very careful, moreso than any other point since July (and maybe since early February).  In fact, they are probably suggesting to short if so inclined.

Doesn't mean of course that individual stocks can't act differently.

Thank goodness I took my own suggestions on Thursday when the S&P matched its Great Depression analogue... [/bragging] 

[StateBoiler]

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jmfcst: in this case, Ben is your best friend...how could anyone say Ben is worried about inflation when he has rates at 0% and has been printing paper faster than the New York Times?![/quote]

Yeah Lief, that comment wasn't your smartest.

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Agree here. He'd've done with housing and fiscal policy the same thing Greenspan did.

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I like Volcker but I think the people that vote on this nomination wouldn't like Volcker. Volcker would state "this is going to hurt for a bit but it's for the best" and I don't think the Senate would go for that. The Democrats have had their year of pain they could blame on Bush. Elections are 10 months away and they're in charge, they have to show improvement, and not stock market improvement, people-on-the-ground improvement. I'd personally rather have "USA early 1980s" than "Japan early 1990s to current and into the future indefinitely" though.

I disagree with you though that the markets would like him, they love ZIRP.

Guy at Minyanville writing about Bernanke maybe getting the axe:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Obama-banks-bernanke-buffett-government/index/a/26480

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[Sam Spade]

State - they'd like Volcker, initially at least, because he's a reputable and trusted figure at Wall Street, much as Bernanke is in their eyes.

But anyway, I'm just relating my take.  It is also well-known that I oppose Bernanke and think he is spawn of Satan (Greenspan).

It is also funny to see Dems looking at the results in MA as I did, seeing what I saw, and trying to react to the populist white working-class revolt I noted with the same old strategies they've used for nearly forever without understanding what's really going on.

Sure, that group hates bankers and wants them lynched.  But right now, they care more about reform in Washington and about jobs and excess government spending in that order (third was being against Obamacare because they felt it was shoved down their throats and the white working-class hates that most of all).  Bankers are simply nowhere near as high up, and if you don't deliver #1 and #2, they likely will not care.

Oh, and did I mention that by pursuing this strategy Dems are trying to take an axe to their two decades long strategy at attracting upper-middle class suburbanites.  Just saying.

Republicans are not being any smarter or talented in what they support or advocate as of yet, they're simply benefitting from this amazing growth of stupidity on the other side that I've seen manifesting itself for the past year.

Dems still have time to turn it around, of course, but if they don't, and Republicans figure out a message, Democrats could well be in worse shape than 1994 (not talking about an election, but about overall party shape) before you know it.

[© tweed]

would Volcker have a real shot?

[StateBoiler]

It is also funny to see Dems looking at the results in MA as I did, seeing what I saw, and trying to react to the populist white working-class revolt I noted with the same old strategies they've used for nearly forever without understanding what's really going on.

I saw you mention this in the other thread. I assume you compared township maps and just used your knowledge of the character of certain townships and extrapolated that to inclines in Brown's support versus the Clinton-Obama primary. Do you have a map to show this or no?

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It's always been my opinion on what happened in 2006, just that the position of the two parties are reversed from now. I just remember the Democrats in that election offering absolutely nothing, but they didn't have to because the Republicans had shot all their toes off.

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As good a shot as anyone on offer I guess. You'd have to throw Summers in there, the heads of the individual Fed banks, and maybe as a longshot Geithner. This isn't really a job outsiders get appointed to.

[© tweed]

Obama would get crucified if he nominated Geithner or Summers

[StateBoiler]

Obama would get crucified if he nominated Geithner or Summers

True, but they'd be in consideration. After Obama's bank move yesterday I seriously doubt he'd appoint Geithner to the role and I don't think Geithner would get approved smoothly if he did appoint him, so that makes the decision to not appoint Geithner easier.

[Sam Spade]

It is also funny to see Dems looking at the results in MA as I did, seeing what I saw, and trying to react to the populist white working-class revolt I noted with the same old strategies they've used for nearly forever without understanding what's really going on.

I saw you mention this in the other thread. I assume you compared township maps and just used your knowledge of the character of certain townships and extrapolated that to inclines in Brown's support versus the Clinton-Obama primary. Do you have a map to show this or no?
[quote]

The Clinton-Obama map is the most important voting map of the last 40 years IMHO

Go see Al's comparison map between 2010 Brown-Coakley and 2002 Romney-O'Brien...

[Lunar]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0110/Gregg_Dodd_Very_confident_Bernanke_will_be_confirmed.html

[President Mitt]

I hope he is not reconfirmed.

[tmthforu94]

This is amazing news, the vote should be close. It's interesting which Senators are working together to block his confirmation...

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Harry  Reid endorsed him......Kiss of Death

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I hope he is not reconfirmed.

[Franzl]

I hope he is not reconfirmed.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I hope he is not reconfirmed.

[cannonia]

Who would be nominated in his place?

In all seriousness, there are many people who would do a worse job as Fed Chairman than Helicopter Ben has done.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hope he is not reconfirmed.