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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #50 on: January 23, 2010, 07:12:30 PM »

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

Um, what big ticket states does Romney appeal to? Utah? Huh

California, New York, Florida, Illinois.

He lost all of those states in 08. What makes you so sure 12 is going to be any different?
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #51 on: January 23, 2010, 07:13:21 PM »

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.

He is conservative enough to appeal to the GOP base yet mainstream enough to not frighten independents and moderates.

I have been naming Graham as a running mate for Romney on this forum for the past three or four years.

I have also been thinking of a twenty year younger version of Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana.  However, I don't know if one exists.

At the moment, realistically, like him or not, Romney is the only potential GOP Presidential nominee with the credentials, the gravitas, and the stature for national office.  
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #52 on: January 23, 2010, 07:14:15 PM »

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.

He is conservative enough to appeal to the GOP base yet mainstream enough to not frighten independents and moderates.

I have been naming Graham as a running mate for Romney on this forum for the past three or four years.

I have also been thinking of a twenty year younger version of Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana.  However, I don't know if one exists.

At the moment, realistically, like him or not, Romney is the only potential GOP Presidential nominee with the credentials, the gravitas, and the stature for national office.  

Hell no. Graham represents the worst of the worst that the GOP has to offer. He won't attract conservatives nor will he attract moderates and suburbanites.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #53 on: January 23, 2010, 07:14:57 PM »

I'll admit that I have been a Romney hack over the last few days. I need to go lie down. Tongue
Hey, its alright if you want to defend your candidate, as long as you keep an open mind about it. Smiley
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Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #54 on: January 23, 2010, 07:15:42 PM »

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

Um, what big ticket states does Romney appeal to? Utah? Huh

California, New York, Florida, Illinois.

He lost all of those states in 08. What makes you so sure 12 is going to be any different?

McCain and Giuliani were in the race, in 2012, they won't be. What makes you think they'll vote for Palin or Huck? You know I like Johnson, but I don't see how he could win them. Tongue


I really, really, need to take a chill pill. Maybe even rethink all of this.... Tongue
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #55 on: January 23, 2010, 07:18:18 PM »

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

Um, what big ticket states does Romney appeal to? Utah? Huh

California, New York, Florida, Illinois.

He lost all of those states in 08. What makes you so sure 12 is going to be any different?

McCain and Giuliani were in the race, in 2012, they won't be. What makes you think they'll vote for Palin or Huck? You know I like Johnson, but I don't see how he could win them. Tongue


I really, really, need to take a chill pill. Maybe even rethink all of this.... Tongue

Well I think if Johnson runs a solid campaign, he could be competitive in the Northeast, Pacific Coast, etc.

But there are still plenty of other candidates who aren't Huck/Palin-types who could also jump in and steal those states from Romney.
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Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #56 on: January 23, 2010, 07:22:04 PM »

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

Um, what big ticket states does Romney appeal to? Utah? Huh

California, New York, Florida, Illinois.

He lost all of those states in 08. What makes you so sure 12 is going to be any different?

McCain and Giuliani were in the race, in 2012, they won't be. What makes you think they'll vote for Palin or Huck? You know I like Johnson, but I don't see how he could win them. Tongue


I really, really, need to take a chill pill. Maybe even rethink all of this.... Tongue

Well I think if Johnson runs a solid campaign, he could be competitive in the Northeast, Pacific Coast, etc.

But there are still plenty of other candidates who aren't Huck/Palin-types who could also jump in and steal those states from Romney.

Fair enough, but a lot of them don't seem to be interested, in my opinion. Tom Ridge running would provide an interesting twist. There is also talk of Rudy running.

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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #57 on: January 23, 2010, 07:23:59 PM »

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

Um, what big ticket states does Romney appeal to? Utah? Huh

California, New York, Florida, Illinois.

He lost all of those states in 08. What makes you so sure 12 is going to be any different?

McCain and Giuliani were in the race, in 2012, they won't be. What makes you think they'll vote for Palin or Huck? You know I like Johnson, but I don't see how he could win them. Tongue


I really, really, need to take a chill pill. Maybe even rethink all of this.... Tongue

Well I think if Johnson runs a solid campaign, he could be competitive in the Northeast, Pacific Coast, etc.

But there are still plenty of other candidates who aren't Huck/Palin-types who could also jump in and steal those states from Romney.

Fair enough, but a lot of them don't seem to be interested, in my opinion. Tom Ridge running would provide an interesting twist. There is also talk of Rudy running.



If it was Romney vs. Johnson and the nomination was coming down to one vote, who would you cast it for?
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Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #58 on: January 23, 2010, 07:26:37 PM »

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

Um, what big ticket states does Romney appeal to? Utah? Huh

California, New York, Florida, Illinois.

He lost all of those states in 08. What makes you so sure 12 is going to be any different?

McCain and Giuliani were in the race, in 2012, they won't be. What makes you think they'll vote for Palin or Huck? You know I like Johnson, but I don't see how he could win them. Tongue


I really, really, need to take a chill pill. Maybe even rethink all of this.... Tongue

Well I think if Johnson runs a solid campaign, he could be competitive in the Northeast, Pacific Coast, etc.

But there are still plenty of other candidates who aren't Huck/Palin-types who could also jump in and steal those states from Romney.

Fair enough, but a lot of them don't seem to be interested, in my opinion. Tom Ridge running would provide an interesting twist. There is also talk of Rudy running.



If it was Romney vs. Johnson and the nomination was coming down to one vote, who would you cast it for?

Interesting point. I am the one who decides the fate of the primary?

What are the poll numbers for the general election?
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #59 on: January 23, 2010, 07:30:56 PM »

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

Um, what big ticket states does Romney appeal to? Utah? Huh

California, New York, Florida, Illinois.

He lost all of those states in 08. What makes you so sure 12 is going to be any different?

McCain and Giuliani were in the race, in 2012, they won't be. What makes you think they'll vote for Palin or Huck? You know I like Johnson, but I don't see how he could win them. Tongue


I really, really, need to take a chill pill. Maybe even rethink all of this.... Tongue

Well I think if Johnson runs a solid campaign, he could be competitive in the Northeast, Pacific Coast, etc.

But there are still plenty of other candidates who aren't Huck/Palin-types who could also jump in and steal those states from Romney.

Fair enough, but a lot of them don't seem to be interested, in my opinion. Tom Ridge running would provide an interesting twist. There is also talk of Rudy running.



If it was Romney vs. Johnson and the nomination was coming down to one vote, who would you cast it for?

Interesting point. I am the one who decides the fate of the primary?

What are the poll numbers for the general election?

Lol, come on, the whole point of my question was to see who you would support if we were only looking at the candidates themselves, not at all concerned with poll numbers and electability. Tongue
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #60 on: January 23, 2010, 07:32:32 PM »

I never expected NiK was more of a Romney hack than NCYankee. Tongue

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

1. Pawlenty also appeals to swing voters and independents.

2. This Health Care thing may have destroyed Romney's chances. All the talk radio people have been saying that Browns victory was partly do to the unpopularity of that state's Health care plan. The best challenger to Patrick, Cahil, wants to dismantle it. And Cahil is so serious about winning he is running as a Fiscal Conservative and he picked a Republican member of the State House(who according to what I read is Pro-Life) as his running mate and Cahil was till just a few months ago a Democrat. The Republican candidate, Baker is to left of Cahil, and is trailing way back at third.

3. He can't appeal to the people who are enthusiastic right now. In 2000 the Christian Right was enthusiastic and Bush was the perfect candidate for them. Now its the limited Gov't, Tea Party crowd.

Things aren't looking to good for Romney.

Bingo. And as an addition to #3, the Christian Right is still important, and I am sure that they will vote against Romney. Romney is unpopular both with them and with the tea party crowd.

I was never a Romney hack. I supported John McCain from 2004ish to 2006(when the immigration issue became so big) Romney came out against Amnesty, and he had MA join that program to deputize the police force. Tancredo and Hunter were unelectable, Giuliani made NYC a Sanctuary City, McCain I had abandoned over this issue, Paul struck me as nuts, Huckabee was too much of a Compassionate Conservative to crack down on illegals(especially after giving them Instate Tuition and giving out all those pardons, I actually liked Huckabee till late 2007 and thought he would be a great V.P. for Romney in 2008). That left Romney.

Winfield and then Tmthforu94 were more Romney hacks then I am.
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Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #61 on: January 23, 2010, 07:39:05 PM »

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

Um, what big ticket states does Romney appeal to? Utah? Huh

California, New York, Florida, Illinois.

He lost all of those states in 08. What makes you so sure 12 is going to be any different?

McCain and Giuliani were in the race, in 2012, they won't be. What makes you think they'll vote for Palin or Huck? You know I like Johnson, but I don't see how he could win them. Tongue


I really, really, need to take a chill pill. Maybe even rethink all of this.... Tongue

Well I think if Johnson runs a solid campaign, he could be competitive in the Northeast, Pacific Coast, etc.

But there are still plenty of other candidates who aren't Huck/Palin-types who could also jump in and steal those states from Romney.

Fair enough, but a lot of them don't seem to be interested, in my opinion. Tom Ridge running would provide an interesting twist. There is also talk of Rudy running.



If it was Romney vs. Johnson and the nomination was coming down to one vote, who would you cast it for?

Interesting point. I am the one who decides the fate of the primary?

What are the poll numbers for the general election?

Lol, come on, the whole point of my question was to see who you would support if we were only looking at the candidates themselves, not at all concerned with poll numbers and electability. Tongue

I am not entirely sure. Johnson strikes me as a good person, but I could never picture him as President. Really, when I play it through my mind, him sitting behind a desk in the oval office just doesn't seem likely. But, then again, I do agree with a lot of his positions. I can't really make that kind of decision. Romney is my candidate because he seems the most electable, as opposed to Johnson. We'll see, though.

My top choice because of those reasons would probably be Romney, but that could change. Next would be Johnson, and then Gingrich, and so forth. At the bottom of the list is Palin.
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« Reply #62 on: January 23, 2010, 07:41:27 PM »

I never expected NiK was more of a Romney hack than NCYankee. Tongue

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

1. Pawlenty also appeals to swing voters and independents.

2. This Health Care thing may have destroyed Romney's chances. All the talk radio people have been saying that Browns victory was partly do to the unpopularity of that state's Health care plan. The best challenger to Patrick, Cahil, wants to dismantle it. And Cahil is so serious about winning he is running as a Fiscal Conservative and he picked a Republican member of the State House(who according to what I read is Pro-Life) as his running mate and Cahil was till just a few months ago a Democrat. The Republican candidate, Baker is to left of Cahil, and is trailing way back at third.

3. He can't appeal to the people who are enthusiastic right now. In 2000 the Christian Right was enthusiastic and Bush was the perfect candidate for them. Now its the limited Gov't, Tea Party crowd.

Things aren't looking to good for Romney.

Bingo. And as an addition to #3, the Christian Right is still important, and I am sure that they will vote against Romney. Romney is unpopular both with them and with the tea party crowd.

I was never a Romney hack. I supported John McCain from 2004ish to 2006(when the immigration issue became so big) Romney came out against Amnesty, and he had MA join that program to deputize the police force. Tancredo and Hunter were unelectable, Giuliani made NYC a Sanctuary City, McCain I had abandoned over this issue, Paul struck me as nuts, Huckabee was too much of a Compassionate Conservative to crack down on illegals(especially after giving them Instate Tuition and giving out all those pardons, I actually liked Huckabee till late 2007 and thought he would be a great V.P. for Romney in 2008). That left Romney.

Winfield and then Tmthforu94 were more Romney hacks then I am.

So you're a single issue voter. Tongue
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #63 on: January 23, 2010, 07:53:29 PM »

I have to agree with NiK that newly elected Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia would be a good pick for VP for Romney.

McDonnell does come with very impressive credentials and Romney and McDonnell as a ticket would be serious contenders.
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Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #64 on: January 23, 2010, 08:22:25 PM »
« Edited: January 23, 2010, 08:25:07 PM by NiK »

I'll basically give a summary of while I think he'll win the nomination, without trying to appear hackish. Most of my reasoning comes from Ramesh Ponnuru, who wrote this for the National Review a few months back.

First, Mitt wasn't allowed breathing room in 2008. Huckabee dominated evangelicals, while McCain was the prime choice for independents and centrists. Romney, on the other hand, needed EVERYONE's vote. He couldn't displace McCain or Giuliani, and there was no way he could beat Huckabee with the evangelicals. In order to win, he had to run holding up all planks of the stool. And, not surprising, he lost, because he had no fundamental base, but a collection of different people scattered across the ideological scale.

Now, in 2012, there is no one (Other then Johnson, but he'd have to run a phenomenal campaign) likely to run from that perspective of the party. That leaves a huge gap open for Mitt, who easily fits into that kind of campaign and is more in tune with them then Palin or Huckabee. Last time around, he ran as a conservative insurgent, but this time around he will (probably) be running as an establishmentarean. Now, the fact that he flip-flopped would still matter, but he would be more credible under theses circumstances. Furthermore, there would be little air left between Palin and Huckabee, as they would be directly competing against each other.

Next, the establishment. The establishment would, as I am inclined to think, on the most part support Romney. The establishment hates Mike Huckabee with a passion, and it seems to be that they think Palin is damaged and only use Palin as a bogeyman to frighten progressives. His main challenger here would be Tim Pawlenty, but quite frankly, the man makes Mitt Romney seen like the energizer bunny. But, this leaves us with one thought: Would the GOP Establishment still back Romney after Massachusetts Health Care? It's a big if, but I am inclined to think so. It would be a detriment, though, in my opinion. A recent poll showed that highest proportion of GOP insiders thought that Romney was the strongest candidate, coming in an overwhelming first place. Right behind him was Thune and Pawlenty.

Full details here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=109362.0

Right before I end, Romney can answer questions on the economy that most of the other candidates current match. Most could probably say something plausible about social issues and Afghanistan, but none (Save Johnson, potentially), could really outtalk Romney on the subject that will probably be the biggest issue in 2012.

Finally, we move on to the final point. The teabaggers. How would this play out with them? I'm really willing to say that they wouldn't really even go for him. But, I don't think they will go overwhelmingly for one candidate, either. I think that their vote will probably be split.

Anyway, just my two cents. Feel free to criticize or mock, but these points really stood out for me. I had fun explaining. Smiley
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #65 on: January 23, 2010, 08:37:18 PM »

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

Um, what big ticket states does Romney appeal to? Utah? Huh

California, New York, Florida, Illinois.

Three of those states haven't voted for a Republican nominee for President since the Soviet Union was in existence. In 2008, every one of those three voted for Obama by huge margins.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #66 on: January 23, 2010, 08:42:03 PM »

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

Um, what big ticket states does Romney appeal to? Utah? Huh

California, New York, Florida, Illinois.

Three of those states haven't voted for a Republican nominee for President since the Soviet Union was in existence. In 2008, every one of those three voted for Obama by huge margins.

I may be wrong, but I think he was talking about the GOP primaries...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #67 on: January 23, 2010, 08:47:52 PM »

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

Um, what big ticket states does Romney appeal to? Utah? Huh

California, New York, Florida, Illinois.

Three of those states haven't voted for a Republican nominee for President since the Soviet Union was in existence. In 2008, every one of those three voted for Obama by huge margins.

No offense, but this is the second time in two days that you seem to be totally clueless about the distinction between the primaries and the GE, even when it's completely obvious from context.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #68 on: January 23, 2010, 09:25:52 PM »

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

Um, what big ticket states does Romney appeal to? Utah? Huh

California, New York, Florida, Illinois.

Three of those states haven't voted for a Republican nominee for President since the Soviet Union was in existence. In 2008, every one of those three voted for Obama by huge margins.

No offense, but this is the second time in two days that you seem to be totally clueless about the distinction between the primaries and the GE, even when it's completely obvious from context.


OK. Some Democrat will win the respective Utah primary in 2016 and some Republican will win the respective Vermont primary in 2016. 
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« Reply #69 on: January 23, 2010, 09:26:43 PM »

Some of the conservatives voted for Romney last time because he presented himself as the most conservative candidate in the race.  Some of those conservatives won't vote for him again.

Unlike last time, the conservative vote won't be split as Palin should be able to consolidate the people who are both fiscally and socially conservative.

Instead, the moderate vote will be split this time between Pawlenty, Romney, Daniels, etc.

In effect, the opposite of what happened last time with McCain will occur this time with Palin.

Romney won't be able to win the "big ticket" states in a primary outside of the Northeast (Palin would win California, Illiniois, Texas as she would consolidate the conservative vote while winning enough of the moderate vote while the moderate vote gets split).
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #70 on: January 24, 2010, 05:58:05 AM »

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

Um, what big ticket states does Romney appeal to? Utah? Huh

California, New York, Florida, Illinois.

Three of those states haven't voted for a Republican nominee for President since the Soviet Union was in existence. In 2008, every one of those three voted for Obama by huge margins.

No offense, but this is the second time in two days that you seem to be totally clueless about the distinction between the primaries and the GE, even when it's completely obvious from context.


OK. Some Democrat will win the respective Utah primary in 2016 and some Republican will win the respective Vermont primary in 2016. 

Not sure what your point is here.  You make it sound as if it's a triviality to win the primary of a state that your party is going to lose in the GE.  Which is of course preposterous.  California has a lot of delegates, so it certainly helps a GOP candidate to win the primary there.  It helps them to win the nomination, even though they're going to lose it in the GE.  Whereas VT has only a handful of delegates and its primary is fairly late in the calendar, so it's irrelevant.  Whether I primary is important is disconnected from whether it'll be a swing state in the general election.
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« Reply #71 on: January 24, 2010, 08:22:51 AM »

Romney isn't winning.  His favorables with Republicans aren't good enough.

McCain and Giuliani led the field last time. Romney is the only one running who appeals to the big ticket states, and the only one who can reasonably appeal to independents.

While I won't say that he won't win, barring scandal, he has his work cut out for him.

Um, what big ticket states does Romney appeal to? Utah? Huh

California, New York, Florida, Illinois.

Three of those states haven't voted for a Republican nominee for President since the Soviet Union was in existence. In 2008, every one of those three voted for Obama by huge margins.

No offense, but this is the second time in two days that you seem to be totally clueless about the distinction between the primaries and the GE, even when it's completely obvious from context.


OK. Some Democrat will win the respective Utah primary in 2016 and some Republican will win the respective Vermont primary in 2016. 

Not sure what your point is here.  You make it sound as if it's a triviality to win the primary of a state that your party is going to lose in the GE.  Which is of course preposterous.  California has a lot of delegates, so it certainly helps a GOP candidate to win the primary there.  It helps them to win the nomination, even though they're going to lose it in the GE.  Whereas VT has only a handful of delegates and its primary is fairly late in the calendar, so it's irrelevant.  Whether I primary is important is disconnected from whether it'll be a swing state in the general election.


Pbrower got caught with egg on his face and now wants to make it seem like he was making some profound point all along. Roll Eyes
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« Reply #72 on: January 24, 2010, 02:30:49 PM »

No one liked my reasoning? Sad
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Bo
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« Reply #73 on: January 25, 2010, 08:00:10 PM »

John Thune or John Hoeven.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #74 on: January 26, 2010, 03:52:53 PM »

I would say Thune or Portman (if he wins his Senate bid).
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