When Will Chinese Per Capita GDP Overtake That of the U.S.?

[Bo]

I'd say 2090-2099.

[phk]

Never or after 2100.

[Psychic Octopus]

Not too sure. It isn't happening in the next 50 years, though. I'll be a good boy and say after 2100.

[Vepres]

Never, they have many problems that will cause them to collapse long before they can overtake us.

[Verily]

Anyone know when the US's per capita GDP surpassed that of the UK? Before or after WWII?

[Psychic Octopus]

Anyone know when the US's per capita GDP surpassed that of the UK? Before or after WWII?

In the 1870s IIRC.

[Verily]

Anyone know when the US's per capita GDP surpassed that of the UK? Before or after WWII?

In the 1870s IIRC.

That's total GDP, not per capita.

Edit: Found it. Britain was ahead pre-1905, from 1914 to 1916, from 1932-1935 and in 1938. The US was ahead every year from 1939 onwards, as well from 1905-1913, from 1917-1931 and from 1936-1937.

http://www.ggdc.net/Maddison/Historical_Statistics/horizontal-file_03-2007.xls

[Psychic Octopus]

Anyone know when the US's per capita GDP surpassed that of the UK? Before or after WWII?

In the 1870s IIRC.

That's total GDP, not per capita.

Oh, I though you meant total. Whoops.

[Verily]

I was curious because it would be a good measure of how long it might take China to surpass the US's GDP per capita after surpassing the US's total GDP. In the case of the US and UK, it took about thirty years for them to reach parity, then another thirty years for the US to pull solidly ahead. That doesn't sound like an unreasonable timeline for China. Assuming China's total GDP surpasses that of the US around 2040-2050, that puts its first GDP per capita ahead of the US some time around 2080.

(Of course, the population difference between the US and China is somewhat greater than that between the US and UK from 1870-1905; on the other hand, the US grew much faster in population 1870-1905 than China is likely to do 2045-2080.)

[bgwah]

Never.

[Torie]

Never.

It will be never unless and until China really embraces a civil law society with truly independent courts, and ends government by fiat. That may well happen. If it does, given my anecdotal perception of the capability, and drive, and intelligence, and discipline, of the Chinese people in general, it will happen someday, and that may be around 2100. The US is slowly cannibalizing itself with its substandard secondary educational school system, for all but the say, top 20% of the population economically, and over time, and particularly since we are no longer sweeping up the best and the brightest from across the planet to make up for that, that is going to take the US down, despite its otherwise great advantages.

As an aside, Hong Kong is an amazing place. It is kind of like a smaller NYC, without the crime and other dysfunctional aspects. Its per capita income is comparable to the US as of the moment.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Shorty after hell freezes over and the universe implodes!

That is, unless Obama gets reelected.

In which case, it is definitely possible.

[opebo]

Oh come on people, the human race (or anyway most of it) will go back to the stone age before China surpasses the US in per capita GDP, simply because we'll run out of oil long before then.

[memphis]

Never, they have many problems people that will cause them to collapse long before they can overtake us.

Fixed.

[Bo]

Oh come on people, the human race (or anyway most of it) will go back to the stone age before China surpasses the US in per capita GDP, simply because we'll run out of oil long before then.

Renewable energy (as well as natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower in the short run) can fill in the gap caused by oil depletion. Peak oil is way overrated.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Oh come on people, the human race (or anyway most of it) will go back to the stone age before China surpasses the US in per capita GDP, simply because we'll run out of oil long before then.

Renewable energy (as well as natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower in the short run) can fill in the gap caused by oil depletion. Peak oil is way overrated.

And just what do you think the keyboard you used to type out those rather ignorant words on is made out of?

I'll give you a hint:  It's not coal, natural gas, nuclear power, or hydropower.

[Bo]

Oh come on people, the human race (or anyway most of it) will go back to the stone age before China surpasses the US in per capita GDP, simply because we'll run out of oil long before then.

Renewable energy (as well as natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower in the short run) can fill in the gap caused by oil depletion. Peak oil is way overrated.

And just what do you think the keyboard you used to type out those rather ignorant words on is made out of?

I'll give you a hint:  It's not coal, natural gas, nuclear power, or hydropower.

Aren't keyboards made of plastic, which is made using petroleum? There is a thing called bioplastics, which can be made from renewable energy, though.