Marion Berry(D-AR) to Retire

[Rowan]

It's pretty obvious he saw some polling and didn't want to face the music in November.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Woot!

Now we just need a real candidate against Ross.

[Torie]

Thanks for your comments politicalchick20. I appreciate it.  Clinton is inflating the prospects for whom in 2010? That part of your post was a bit unclear to me. I understand the disappointment factor for 2008, with Hillary not getting the nomination, but now she is in the administration, and it seems like a GOP blowout at the moment.

[bgwah]

Sorry guys, but he has to retire so I can put him into my pie and eat him.

[Lief 🗽]

The black Marion Barry would never pull this kind of shit.

[Lunar]

Sorry guys, but he has to retire so I can put him into my pie and eat him.

What do you put in a Marion Berry pie?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He hinted at this fairly recently, so its no surprise. We'll have to see who the candidates are but, obviously, the atmosphere is going to be pretty poor for the Democrats in Arkansas this year.

In other news, Mollohan (WV-1) is apparently not retiring.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Sorry guys, but he has to retire so I can put him into my pie and eat him.

What do you put in a Marion Berry pie?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marionberry

[politicalchick20]

Thanks for your comments politicalchick20. I appreciate it.  Clinton is inflating the prospects for whom in 2010? That part of your post was a bit unclear to me. I understand the disappointment factor for 2008, with Hillary not getting the nomination, but now she is in the administration, and it seems like a GOP blowout at the moment.

I was mostly thinking about the established bench there would be for the Democrats on a local level throughout the state (save Northwest Arkansas, obviously), and the fact that the majority of Democrats in the state are more conservative, and that, in addition to tradition, could mean that an Democrat in Arkansas would be more likely to hold the seat than Republican could be in picking it up (although, given this year's enviornment so far, the Republicans could capture any of these seats).
What I meant by the Clinton comments was that the blowout Obama suffered there in 2008 came from the Clnton factor, and the results in the presidential election have therefore been used as an indicator for other races in 2010, when perhaps it shouldn't be at all due to unusual circumstances.

I should note that both Berry and Snyder voted for the health care bill. Backlash from this makes Berry's retirement seem even more logical.

And Torie... you're welcome. I just hope I didn't confuse you more (I think I confused myself a few times here )

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Berry is apparently claiming that Obama told him that 2010 will not be like 1994 because Obama is a special magic man.

[jokerman]

This is Attorney General Dustin McDaniel's seat for the taking, if he wants it.  He's very popular in Craighead County (and NE AR in general), and a Republican would have to win Craighead handily in order to have a shot.

[SamInTheSouth]

This is Attorney General Dustin McDaniel's seat for the taking, if he wants it.  He's very popular in Craighead County (and NE AR in general), and a Republican would have to win Craighead handily in order to have a shot.

The Democrats will not hold this seat.

[Sam Spade]

Berry is apparently claiming that Obama told him that 2010 will not be like 1994 because Obama is a special magic man.

Really? lol

[Guderian]

I'll bet you that guys like Halter and McDaniel are doing some polling now and trying to determine if Arkansas voters are just pissed off at Snyder and Berry or they really want to send some Republicans to Washington.

[Guderian]

What is going on with Arkansas?  Why has it moved in the past 2 years or so, so much against the Dems, in a way that seems rather unique to it?  Why were whites there typically more kind to Dems than in other Southern states outside of Florida and Virginia, and why are the whites now suddenly bailing?  Who here is an Arkansas expert?

Arkansas Democrats never allowed to be out-good-old-boyed by Republicans like Democrats in other Southern states. I think some of this can be explained by the fact that only 16% of Arkansas population is Black. It might seem counterintuitive, but this probably has helped Arkansas Democrats in the long run. I think that in states like Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina the emergance of Black Democrats as a strong and politically liberal voting block drove the state Democrat Party to the left and state's whites towards Republican Party. However, Black Democrats are not a significant political force in Arkansas and conservative whites never had a reason to abandon the Democrats.

Of course, on presidential level they would vote heavily against liberal Northern Democrats (Obama did somewhat worse than Kerry and Dukakis but still outperformed McGovern and Mondale) but they gave big victories to favorite son Clinton in '92 and '96 and to Carter in '76. Carter did lose Arkansas by 5,000 votes against Reagan and Gore did fumble against Bush, but still Arkansas has truly been one of the most competitive Southern state for Democrats in post-integration presidential elections, if they had the right candidate.

Huckabee did hold the governorship for 10 years but Republicans won only one Senate race in history of Arkansas (Hutchinson '96). Since 1966 Arkansas House delegation has been either split 2-2 or Democrats held the 3-1 edge. Down the ballot, Republicans basically cease to exist outside of NW portion of the state. These are all reasons I'm still agnostic on the idea of Republicans sweeping the 2010 Arkansas races, although I would love to see this happen. At this point I would settle for Lincoln's Senate seat and AR-02.

[jokerman]

This is Attorney General Dustin McDaniel's seat for the taking, if he wants it.  He's very popular in Craighead County (and NE AR in general), and a Republican would have to win Craighead handily in order to have a shot.

The Democrats will not hold this seat.

And who the hell are you?  The seat hasn't been GOP since reconstruction.

[Joe Republic]

The seat hasn't been GOP since reconstruction.

A lot of Southern seats held that distinction, until inevitably falling to the GOP when they couldn't resist the partisan realignment any longer.

Not that I necessarily disagree with you on this particular seat, mind you.

[HAnnA MArin County]

The Hillary factor, simply put. There's probably still a lot of remorse and angst towards Obama and the way she was treated by not only his supporters (including the media) but by the Democratic Party in general. I think Arkansas is sending a loud and clear message to the Democratic Party establishment in Washington, D.C. that they're punishing them in the way that they punished their candidate, but then again, I'm a little biased in my thinking. But I do think the Hillary factor is why. I mean, how come the Democrats aren't running scared at the state level? Last I saw, Gov. Mike Beebe (D) had like an 80% approval rating and Democrats still control a supermajority in the Arkansas state legislature.

I'm not from Arkansas so I won't speak for the voters there, but the one poster from Arkansas on here was dead-on in her assessment. I think it really is more so the Clinton factor more than it is racism, because last I checked, Blanche isn't black. Once Obama is out of the White House, I'm sure Arkansas will return to its Dixiecratic ways.

[Brittain33]

Kos reports via Swing State Report that filing in Arkansas has closed and that only two Republicans made the primary ballot in AR-1: the unknown who was running before Berry retired, and an aide to Joseph Cao, Princella Smith. Here's her website. http://princellasmith.com/

Rick Crawford was in the race before. The top story on his page right now is his congratulating The Hurt Locker on its Oscar win.

http://www.meetrickcrawford.com/

There are a ton of top-tier Democrats in the race.

Change this to Likely D. That said, I wonder if some of these D's are more likely than others to pull a Parker Griffith if the House ends up close enough for them to get something good for it. It's not like there's any Republican bench to object. 

[Lief 🗽]

CQ Politics has downgraded this from Toss-up to Lean Dem.

Tim Wooldridge, former state senator and lieutenant gubernatorial candidate, along with Chad Causey, who is chief of staff for Marion Berry, are the front runners for the Democratic nomination.  Wooldridge is a solid conservative Democrat (though no more so than Marion Berry) and would defeat either of the GOP candidates.  Causey would probably do the same; he's been in Washington for essentially all of his career, but he's still a good ole Arkansas boy, and knows the district.

Berry actually wasn't that bad of a representative, at least for a white Southern Democrat. He supported the stimulus and the healthcare bill, and voted against the Bush tax cuts. Hopefully these two aren't that awful.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Berry was actually one of those much spoken about but in reality quite rare Democrats who were socially conservative but economic populists, as opposed to your standard corporate Blue Dogs the south is full of. From this district I'd be willing to take another.