What a tackle by Rosey Grier: An Alternate History

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

I'm rooting for Reagan, but I don't think it's going to be nearly as big of a landslide as a 489-49 one as in OTL, since the public is dissatisfied with the GOP AND Reagan already lost to RFK in 1972 ITTL (he didn't lose in a landslide ITTL, but still). But George McGovern's ultraliberalism may turn the tides and Reagan might be able to squeak out a win. I wonder how the debates are going to play out, since the OTL polls were actually quite close before the debate in 1980, the polls showed a Reagan landslide right after the debate.

ALso,

November 5: In a narrow-result, Senator Kennedy defeats Mr. Nixon and Gov. Wallace. He is now the next President of the United States of America

Kennedy/Yarborough (D) 320 EV, 46% of the PV
Nixon/Agnew (R) 173 EV, 40% of the PV
Wallace/LeMay (I) 45 EV, 14% of the PV

1972

Kennedy/Yarborough (D) 54% of the PV, 320 EVs
Reagan/Percy (R) 46% of the PV, 218 EVs

While I agree that RFK would probably win in both these scenarios, is it likely that he'd receive exactly 320 electoral votes two times in a row?

[hcallega]

^Hilarious Coincidence I suppose. 

[hcallega]

1980 Presidential Election

The showdown between Reagan and McGovern pitted left against right, liberal against conservative. Reagan entered the general election ripe with funds and the energized conservative base. However McGovern was drained after a tough showdown with Mondale. Outside of the endorsement of Kennedy he was lacking substantial establishment support, especially from labor which was angered by his opposition for a repeal of the Taft-Hartley Ammednment (labor's biggest issue). However McGovern had a committed campaign team of young liberals, and had inherited much of Kennedy's institutional support. Indeed he had the same campaign manager as Kennedy did in 1968 (Frank Manciewicz). 


Through September and most of October, McGovern trailed Reagan by 4-6%. He was very popular among liberals and minorities, but was struggling with blue collar whites. Reagan, on the other hand, was gearing his campaign towards the white working class and saw them as his ticket to the White House. In the book "Reagan and Me", Jim Baker would state "It was obvious to the Governor before anyone else. The Republican Party couldn't win without Frank Kelly. At least that was what the Governor called him. Frank Kelly worked 9-5 at a factory, lived in the suburbs, was married and had a few kids. He went to church on Sundays, watched football, and ocassionally went hunting. He was a member of a union, wanted his kids to be safe, and looked forward to a sound retirement. I don't know why the Governor ever thought we could win Frank Kelly over, but by God we did."

For McGovern to win the race, he would have to do well in the series of debates. The focus of these debates was principally on inflation, the Iran Hostage Crisis, and the invasion of Afghanistan. McGovern stated that he supported wage and price controls to bring inflation under control, while Reagan emphasized his support for monetary policy. On the hostage crisis Reagan came out in favor of strong force if necessary, while McGovern dodged the issue. On Afghanistan, Reagan was strongly supportive of the Muhjahadeen while McGovern stated that "we need to support our allies, but we cannot afford to throw America into the cross-hairs over one nation in southwest Asia." While McGovern's performance in the debates was viewed as weak, polls showed little movement, and many suspected that Reagan's push to the right had done little to bring in Democrats and Independents. The final results of the election would show this.

 

Reagan/Thompson (R) 52% of the PV  296 EVs
McGovern/Bumpers (D) 48% of the PV  242 EVs

The final results showed that while Americans were frustrated with the inflation crisis and the handling of foreign policy under Rockefeller, they saw Reagan as a greater shift than McGovern. Also, McGovern's lack of money hurt him in the Rust Belt, where he barely won Pennsylvania and Michigan while narrowly loosing Illinois and Ohio.

1980 Congressional Elections

Entering Elections: 55 D, 44 R, 1 I
Democratic Gains
-Arizona: Bill Schulz
-New York: Elizabeth Holtzman
-Pennsylvania: Pete Flaherty
Republican Gains
-Alaska: Frank Murkowski
-Iowa: Chuck Grassley
-New Hampshire: Warren Rudman
-South Dakota: James Abdnor
-Washington: Slade Gorton
Following Elections: 53 D, 46 R, 1 I

House Elections
Entering: 228 D, 207 R
Following: 234 D, 201 R

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Great TL.

Just wondering, how come McGovern won KY/MT?

[hcallega]

House Leadership

Speakers of the House

John McCormack (D-MA) 1963-1971
Carl Albert (D-OK) 1971-1977
Tip O'Neill (D-MA) 1977-Present

Democratic Leader

Carl Albert (OK) 1961-1971
Hale Boggs (LA) 1971-1973
Tip O'Neill (MA) 1973-1977
John McFall (CA) 1977-1979
Phil Burton (CA) 1979-Present

Democratic Whip

Hale Boggs (LA) 1961-1971
Tip O'Neill (MA) 1971-1973
John McFall (CA) 1973-1977
Phil Burton (CA) 1977-Present

Democratic Caucus Chairman

Dan Rostenkowski (IL) 1967-1971
Olin Teague (TX) 1971-1975
Phil Burton (CA) 1975-1977
Tom Foley (WA) 1977-1981
Gillis Long (LA) 1981-Present

Democratic Caucus Secretary

Leonor Sullivan (MO) 1959-1975
Patsy Minsk (HI) 1975-1977
Shirley Chisholm (NY) 1977-1981
Geraldine Ferraro (NY) 1981-Present

Republican Leader

Gerald Ford (MI) 1965-1981
Robert Michel (IL) 1981-Present

Republican Whip

Leslie Arends (IL) 1943-1975
Bob Michel (IL) 1975-1981
Trent Lott (MI) 1981-Present

Republican Conference Chairman

John Anderson (IL) 1969-1979
Samuel Devine (OH) 1979-1981
Jack Kemp (NY) 1981-Present

Republican Vice-Chairman

Jack Edwards (AL) 1979-Present

Republican Conference Secretary

Jack Edwards (AL) 1975-1979
Clair Burgenger (CA) 1979-Present

[hcallega]

Great TL.

Just wondering, how come McGovern won KY/MT?

Kentucky: Still a Democratic state due to the Democrats still being strong with White Working class and coal miners. The closest state in 1980, essentially 50-50

Montana: In OTL typically a close western state. McGovern's local pull helped bring it in. 52-48%

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Great TL.

Just wondering, how come McGovern won KY/MT?

Kentucky: Still a Democratic state due to the Democrats still being strong with White Working class and coal miners. The closest state in 1980, essentially 50-50

Montana: In OTL typically a close western state. McGovern's local pull helped bring it in. 52-48%

Gotcha. Continue!!

[Historico]

Huh, I would have atleast thought that McGovern would have pulled off a victory in Arkansas due Bumpers enormous popularity in his home state at this time. I just realized that since we had a Rocky in charge from 77 to 81; therell be no Volcker appointment to the Fed...Which means the 1982/1983 could very well last all the way into 1984 and hurt the GOP chances. However, I do think due to our penchant for the "Twenty Year Curse", we could end up with a President Big Jim Thompson before the next election...Can't wait to see what you have cooked up HC...Keep it comming

[hcallega]

Well I accidentally deleted the entire in-depth summary of Reagan's first term. So here is a very brief summary

1981

Domestic: Fed Chair Greenspan raises interest rates, tax cuts, recession, inflation low
Foreign: 101st Airborne sent to rescue hostages (Several killed), support for anti-communists, especially Muhjahadeen.

1982

Domestic: Unemployment hits 10%, Garn-St.Germain bill passes, but Glass-Steagal repeal is blocked.
Foreign: Rapid increase in number of troops in Western Europe.

1983

Domestic: Recession comes to an end
Foreign: Reagan and Gorbachev talk missile reduction

1984

Domestic: Economic Boom begins, deficit is massively high
Foreign: Afghanistan becomes a quagmire, congress cuts off funding for Latin American anti-communist aide (Boland Ammednment)

A major issue in Reagan's first term was his incessant conflicts with the Democratic Congressional leadership. Majority Leader Ted Kennedy and Speaker Tip O'Neill were unrelenting in their opposition to Reagan, and effectively blocked most of the President's attempts at passing conservative legislation. In his book "Reagan and Me", Jim Baker would state that "If it wasn't for Senator Kennedy and Speaker O'Neill than I am quite certain that the positive view held of President Reagan by most Americans would be significantly different. Perhaps he would be seen as more of a hard-line conservative, more like Goldwater. Or maybe he would be seen as more sucessfull. Either way, they inadvertently played a very large part in cementing the President's legacy as a popular moderate-conservative."

1982 Midterm Elections

[/b]
Entering Elections: 53 D, 46 R, 1 I
Democratic Gains
-Missouri: Harriet Woods
-New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg
-New Mexico: Jeff Bingaman
-Rhode Island: Julius Michaelson
-Vermont: James Guest
Republican Gains
-Virginia: Paul Tribble
Following Elections: 57 D, 43 R

House Elections
Entering Elections: 250 D, 185 R

[Bo]

Go Reagan!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Reagan should easily win in 1984 due to the reduced inflation and unemployment.

[hcallega]

1984 Democratic Nomination

The fight for the 1984 Democratic Nomination was a relatively small field, considering the high approval ratings and popularity of President Reagan among both Republicans and Democrats. The early frontrunner for the nomination was Ohio Senator John Glenn. Glenn was a close ally of President Kennedy and spanned the gap between the Kennedy branch of the party and organized labor. Glenn focused his campaign on traditional liberal values, while also criticizing Reagan for fiscal irresponsibility. He also focused greatly on his heroic record while in the Air Force.

But Glenn was not alone in the race. Senator Fritz Hollings of South Carolina jumped in, preaching fiscal conservatism and placing himself square in the middle. To the left of both of these men was Reverend Jesse Jackson. Jackson was a follower of President Kennedy, but was far more of a critic of urban poverty than Glenn or Hollings. He focused his campaign on race relations and taking on poverty in an aggressive manner. He also supported single-payer health insurance. Another southern centrist, former Florida Governor Reubin Askew, joined the race as the most conservative candidate. Finally, two libertarians joined the race: former Governor Jerry Brown of California and former Senator Mike Gravel of Alaska. Both men were opponents of the Kennedy branch of the party and evoked the old Eugene McCarthy side.

Early polls showed a strong lead for Glenn with Jackson in second place and Hollings in third. The two libertarians and Askew were still in single digits, and polled very poorly in Iowa. The first caucus state proved to be a good one for Glenn, who won by a wide margin. Glenn would also prevail in New Hampshire and Vermont, persuading Hollings and Askew to drop out. Glenn would win Wyoming as well, before Jackson would score a win in Alabama. For the rest of the race, it would be Glenn winning throughout the nation with Jackson scoring the ocassional victory in the black belt. Neither Gravel nor Brown would carry any states, but both men would stay in the race to attack Glenn. Jackson would not drop out either, but was not critical of Glenn. Rather he attempted to push the party further to the left and show that "blacks will not simply nod yes and punch the ballot box without first being heard."

At the convention in September, Glenn would select Jackson as his VEEP in an attempt to appeal to African-American voters who might have otherwise been turned off by Glenn's candidacy.

1984 General Election

The race between Glenn and Reagan was never even close. Reagan always held a commanding lead in the polls, and for the most part Glenn never took the steps needed to beat him. He chose to focus his campaign efforts on appealing to the white working class and on "ensuring that this party isn't killed by this election." Glenn also utilized Jackson as a means to cement the Democratic hold on all minorities, not just blacks. Jackson and San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros campaigned throughout Hispanic communities in Texas and the southwest. Jackson cemented himself as a major figure in the party, while Cisneros presented himself as a rising star.

Reagan took an active role in campaigning aswell. Running on the slogan "It's a New Morning in America", Reagan emphasized that things were going well in this country. He attacked Glenn and Jackson for dwelling on the negatives. This tactic was quite effective as many Americans saw things as going very well for themselves economically, and they were not so receptive to Glenn's attacks on Reagan's trade and economic policies. However when the polls closed, Glenn's message was heard by blue-collar whites and Jackson's by minorities. This ensured that the Democratic Party was not met with a thud but rather with a muffled fall.

Reagan/Thompson (R) 349 EVs, 55% of the PV
Glenn/Jackson (D) 189 EVs, 45% of the PV

1984 Congressional Races

Entering Elections: 57 D, 43 R
Democratic Gains
-Illinois: Paul Simon
-Iowa: Tom Harkin
-North Carolina: Jim Hunt
-Tennessee: Al Gore
Following Elections: 61 D, 39 R

Entering Elections: 250 D, 185 R
Following Elections: 258 D, 177 R

[hcallega]

The Second Term of President Ronald Reagan

   Entering his second full term in office, President Reagan was greeted with an unfortunate sight. The Democrats had slowly achieved a filibuster proof majority through targeting arch-conservatives such as Jesse Helms and Barry Goldwater. The Lion of the Senate, Ted Kennedy, was now in a position to effective legislation and prevent the President from doing as he saw fit. However Kennedy recognized that while he had 61 Democrats on paper, many of them would balk at taking on the President’s veto. Others were just as conservative as the Republicans they had replaced. In the House, Speaker O’Neill had developed what he called a “firewall” against any Republican attempts at conservative legislation. President Reagan would have to abandon any hope of creating long lasting conservative legislation.

   The President’s first major opportunity came after the explosion of the Space Shuttle Challenger. The Challenger had exploded shortly after takeoff, and the President would deliver a marvelous speech in memory of the crew. Many within the administration saw patriotism as Reagan’s most effective weapon which could be used to effectively keep the President popular despite little actual action.
   
   The President would pursue another major non-partisan initiative in his term as well. In 1977, President Rockefeller had declared a “war on drugs”, and had begun to crack down on the illicit substances. Reagan took the Drug War to another level, promoting an almost militant approach to taking on the Latin American Drug Cartels while cracking down on drug users and gangs in the inner city. His seemingly reckless approach angered many in the black community, and former President Kennedy denounced Reagan’s actions as “insensitive, impractical, and ignorant.” Nonetheless, many in Middle America agreed with the President’s actions against drugs and drug crime.
   
   On foreign policy, Reagan went about a three teared approach to ending the Cold War. His first goal was to buildup the number of troops and military capacity in Western Europe. He feared that if the Soviets conceded too much, a military coup would follow and an invasion of Western Europe would take place. The second aspect was to continue aggressive negotiations with the Soviet Union’s premier, Mikail Gorbachev. Gorbachev was a reformer and was comfortable negotiating away Soviet missile defense. He wanted the Cold War to end as well, just as long as the Soviet Union was preserved. The final approach was through the covert aid of anti-communist forces in the third world. These three approaches would successfully lower tensions and put the end of the Cold War immediately within sight.

   The biggest controversy in Reagan’s second term was the Iran-Contra affair. Related to the covert aid of supporting anti-communist troops, Reagan was investigated for authorizing aide to the Contras with money from arm sales to Iran intended on convincing the Iranians to negotiate the freedom of hostages in Lebanon. The Muskie Committees investigation came up with no evidence that the President was involved, but Colonel Oliver North was found guilty of contempt of court. This controversy would stain the President’s legacy and help the Democrats in 1988.

1986 Midterm Elections
Entering Elections: 60 D, 40 R (+1 R with the special election after Scoop Jackson’s death)
Democratic Gains
-Florida: Bob Graham
-Maryland: Barbara Mikulski
-Nevada: Harry Reid
Republican Gains
-Arizona: John McCain
-California: Ed Zschau
-Colorado: Ken Cramer
-Missouri: Kit Bond
Following Elections: 59 D, 41 R

House Elections
Entering Elections: 258 D, 177 R
Following Elections: 242 D, 205 R

[Historico]

Well after a pretty much carbon copy version of a Reagan Presidency as it happened IOTL, Im ready for a drastic shift...Jesse in 88!!!

[hcallega]

Well after a pretty much carbon copy version of a Reagan Presidency as it happened IOTL, Im ready for a drastic shift...Jesse in 88!!!

Yeah I don't think the 1980s would be drastically different with Reagan at the helm. Still economic growth, still end of the Cold War, still conservative.

[Bo]

Cuomo or Bensten 1988!!!!!!!!!! How is the economy doing, by the way?

[hcallega]

update coming soon....

[hcallega]

Update: So I have decided to spice up the past a little by changing the Iran-Contra Scandal. Rather than having Reagan skate free, things are a little bit different. North’s secretary was unable to shred the documents which implicated Reagan’s National Security Adviser, Jeanne Kirkpatrick. Kirkpatrick was called before the Muskie Committee, which found her culpable. The Committee also called forward President Reagan himself. His testimony was nothing shocking, but with the early stages of Alzheimer’s setting in, he had trouble recalling much of what happened. Therefore, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Peter Rodino filed articles of impeachment against the President. The House would pass the impeachment, and the Senate trial would follow. The trial itself was fairly uneventful, as North, Kirkpatrick, and Reagan all testified. Following the trial, Senator Julian Bond of Georgia followed by filing charges of impeachment. In the following vote, a majority voted to convict, but a 2/3 majority was no where near being achieved. Nonetheless, this would leave a very bad taste in the mouth of the Country.

1988 Democratic Nomination

The 1988 race was one of several high profile candidates. From the labor wing was Representative Dick Gephardt, Senator Joe Biden, and Senator Tom Harkin. From the moderate wing were Governor Bill Clinton, Senator Bill Bradley, and Governor Bruce Babbitt. From the Kennedy wing, only Senator Julian Bond ran. However Bond was the early frontrunner and had large name recognition for being the most ardent supporter of impeachment in the Senate. His major rival was Gephardt, who had the strong support of organized labor. Clinton was also a factor, as his moderate views and popularity amongst blacks was viewed as a potential factor in defeating Gephardt.

The first primary competition was in the Iowa Caucuses. Here Bond essentially did not run, allowing for Gephardt to showdown with Harkin. In the end, Gephardt would edge the home-state Senator and claim victory. However in New Hampshire Gephardt would himself be defeated by Bond, who was able to use his independent streak and strong support of farmers as a major issue. Following that point, the race would go back and forth between Gephardt and Bond, with Clinton capturing several southern states. The battle would be fought all the way until the California Primaries, a victory that would seal the deal for Bond and give him the nomination. In recognition of Gephardt’s strong results, he would select him as his Vice-Presidential Nominee. At the convention, Bond would deliver his famous “Rainbow Coalition” Speech in which he called on the Democratic Party to form a Rainbow Coalition for Victory: “20 years ago we had a black and blue coalition. But today we have a far greater rainbow coalition of not just black and blue but also red, yellow, orange, and brown.”

[Historico]

The names' Bond...Julian Bond!!!So with Reagan being Impeached and not conviced might the Democratic Congress and his family have Pressured him to resign leaving Big Jim Thompsopn as the unpopular imcumbent? Keep it comming HC

[Bo]

Go Julian Bond!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I want to see the first Black Prez in 1988, not to mention that Bond is more qualified than Obama.

[hcallega]

1988 Republican Primaries

Following the disaster of the Iran-Contra Affair, the Republican Party's hopes for 20 consecutive years in power seemed dim. Things got even worse when Vice-President Jim Thompson announced that he would not be a candidate for the 1988 Nomination: "It's time for me to return to Illinois, a place where I can focus on my family, my health, and doing real work for real people." Thompson's exit from the race was a big one, as he was a well-respected moderate within the party. It also meant that a wide field of candidates would jump into the race.

The early front runner for the nomination was Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas. Dole had proven to be an effective leader for the embattled party. He had a center-right voting record, and since taking over as Minority Leader in 1985 had managed to bridge the divide between the party's moderates and conservatives. Recently he had won over the support of many on the right for his staunch defense of President Reagan during the Iran-Contra trial, going as far as to call the investigation and impeachment proceedings a "witch hunt".

The other major candidate for the nomination was Representative Jack Kemp of New York. Kemp was more ideologically in tune with Reagan and conservatives than Dole was. He was a strong supporter of the President's supply-side economics, and was a staunch social conservative. However he was also a strong believer in fighting poverty, and had been called "The greatest poverty warrior of this generation" by former President Kennedy. Other candidates included former Delaware Governor Pierre du Pont, former Nevada Senator Paul Laxalt, and televangelist Pat Robertson. Robertson ran to the right of both Kemp and Dole, while du Pont ran to their left and Laxalt ran from a simmilar ideological base. However none of those three candidates were seen as electable.

The primaries were lacking much of the excitement of the Democratic one. Dole was victorious in Iowa by a large margin, severely hurting Kemp's financially starved campaign. Prior to the New Hampshire primaries Kemp was even further hurt when he responded to the question of what was the biggest problem for the GOP heading into the general election: "Well clearly it's President Reagan. He has really put us in a hole, and I know that many Republicans wish that he wasn't around." Kemp later claimed that the comment was off the record, but the damage was done. Conservatives abandoned their former leader and swarmed to Dole and Robertson. In the end, Robertson would only carry Alaska and Virginia, fighting all the way to the convention as a thorn in the socially moderate Dole's side. Dole would select former Senator Paul Laxalt as his VEEP.

1988 General Election

Two major factors decided the 1988 General Election: The economy and Iran-Contra. In terms of the economy, the boom of the 1980s was beginning to show signs of slowing. And of course Iran-Contra was a major asset to the Democrats as well. Both factors were major boosts to Bond, who many saw as more liberal than they were. However Bond also had a record of being a maverick, breaking with his party on issues where he thought they "were selling main street out for Wall Street." In fact, polls showed that Dole and Bond were dead even following the conventions. However Bond's image as the man who had taken on Reagan and a strong economic progressive played well with concerned voters. Dole's campaign also struggled to define his candidacy, and he never ran to far from Reagan. In the debate's things were even worse, as Dole failed to articulate any major differences from Reagan. In the second debate he lashed out, interrupting Bond several times and appearing as a bully. Therefore it was not too much of a shock that Bond would win a narrow yet still strong victory in the general election.

Bond/Gephardt (D) 298 EVs, 52% of the PV
Dole/Laxalt (R) 240 EVs, 46% of the PV
Paul/Fulani (L) 2% of the PV

[Historico]

Awesome Go President Bond...I guess his status as a Boomlet(48) at the time of the election would allow him to win over a substantial number of Baby Boomer Voters. I was actually suprised he carried Arkansas and Louisana over his home state. I imagine his Presidency being much simmilar to Bush's IOTL atleast Foriegn Policy wise, with a divided congress...He may have to become much more of a moderate than he was in real life. Being a Staunch Gay Rights Advocate as he was, Bond will probably get much more funding on Aids Research and maybe Sexual Orientation rolled into the revised 1990 Civil Rights act.  Keep it comming HC

[hcallega]

Awesome Go President Bond...I guess his status as a Boomlet(48) at the time of the election would allow him to win over a substantial number of Baby Boomer Voters. I was actually suprised he carried Arkansas and Louisana over his home state. I imagine his Presidency being much simmilar to Bush's IOTL atleast Foriegn Policy wise, with a divided congress...He may have to become much more of a moderate than he was in real life. Being a Staunch Gay Rights Advocate as he was, Bond will probably get much more funding on Aids Research and maybe Sexual Orientation rolled into the revised 1990 Civil Rights act.  Keep it comming HC

My theory was that Georgia was becoming far less of a Democratic State in 1988 than in OTL today. Also, Arkansas and Louisiana were both D-Lean at the time as it was, and Bond's race probably helped in Louisiana and Arkansas. WVA actually swung to Dole in large part because Bond was black.

[Bo]

When did President Rockefeller die in this TL? I'm just curious. Or is he still alive?

[hcallega]

When did President Rockefeller die in this TL? I'm just curious. Or is he still alive?

1981, three months after leaving the White House. Massive cardiac arrest brought on attempting to exercise for the first time since entering the Oval Office.

[Bo]

When did President Rockefeller die in this TL? I'm just curious. Or is he still alive?

1981, three months after leaving the White House. Massive cardiac arrest brought on attempting to exercise for the first time since entering the Oval Office.

That's kinda sad. Can you please tell me the exact date?