The Conservatives would probably win in 1997. I have little knowlege of British politics, but didn't John Major's popularity decline primarily because of the economic problems of the early-mid-1990s?
Yes I believe so. Part of Major's problem was that his time in office his response to the Economic recession of the early 1990's tarnished the argument that the Conservatives were the part of Fiscal Responsibility. Several Tory Mps also got caught up in various scandals, and Labor re-branded itself to become more centrist when Blair took over the party leadership. Major also faced the problem of a very narrow majority in the House of Commons which made governing somewhat difficult. If Kinnock had won, I believe also he probably would have lost in 97.
