There is a lot of misinformation going around about what happened in Florida in 2000. Having twice read Jeff Greenfield's book "Oh Waiter, One Order of Crow" (highly recommended, probably the best all around book about the 2000 presidential election), I can fill you in on what happened, at least at CNN.
Florida was called for Gore at 7:50 PM, about 10 minutes before the polls in the panhandle closed. The reason it was called for Gore was because:
The exit poll from Florida had Gore ahead 52-48
Gore had a 5-6 point lead in Florida in most preelection polls in the state.
Sample precincts in Florida that were reporting were all showing Gore running almost as well as Clinton had in 1996 in the same precincts.
Those are the 3 criteria used to call a state. If the exit polls and preelection polls both show one candidate clearly ahead, the state is called as soon as the polls close. Otherwise, they wait for sample precincts to begin reporting, compare the returns to past returns in those precincts, and then go from there. (Precincts are randomly chosen across the state, and then both the percentages and turnout in those precincts is compared to past years)
Hence, the state was called for Gore. All of the available evidence suggested that he would win the state. Greenfield likened it to the Challenger disaster...the process of calling states had worked so flawlessly for so long that no one had any doubt that it would continue to perform well. It was the first time in history in a presidential race that a state, once called, had to be taken back. The only mistake that had ever been made was in the 1996 Senate race in New Hampshire.
The policy at the time was that no state would be called unless 75% of the polls in the state were closed. (That has been now modified into no state being called unless 100% of the polls are closed). And the panhandle and absentee ballots were being taken into consideration in the call, though part of what threw a monkey wrench into the predictions were that absentee ballots comprised 12% of the statewide total, up from 7% in 1996.
As for 1980, the networks did call it for Reagan early, but 1984, 1988, 1992, and 1996 were also all called before the polls on the West Coast closed. What really hurt the Dems that year was that Carter gave his official concession speech even before the polls on the West Coast closed. Since then, no candidate has conceded before 11 PM Eastern time.
Excellent non-fiction. (I've only read it once. In short bursts. Whilst I shat.) And Greenfield has a great sense of humor. But if there is misinformation going around, it is not the fault of the media, since they were all very honest about what happened. It is important to remember that while networks may agree upon a code of ethics regarding what they report, the first amendment gives them the right to call an election any time they want. And if Joe Six-Pack thinks that his ballot only consists of one race, and that that race is decided regardless of how he votes, then our society has much bigger problems than what is on TV at the moment.
As for the agreement not to call the result in a given state before the polls are closed: It is obviously pandering to the nanny element of both parties, but that's their prerogative. I'm not in that business so I'll not tell them how to run it. But the talking heads clearly don't even give lip service to that rule. Think back to the NH primaries in 2004. It was very clear, not only from the subtextual nuance, but in the very words they used to describe the results, who would win in that state before the polls closed. The gleam in Judy Woodruff's eyes as she hinted that Dean would not win. The gleam in Brit Hume's eyes when he hinted that Kerry would. I don't think you'll have any problem figuring out who's winning Florida if you tune in to FOX on election night.
But just so you won't have to wait: Bush wins Florida.
