Scott Brown's effect on the MA Governor Race

[Joe Biden 2020]

What effect do you think Scott Brown's victory will have on the Governor's Race in Massachusetts?  This will obviously give the Republicans new energy in the race, but would it be enough to give the GOP the momentum or is the Democrat (Deval Patrick or other) still a shoo-in?

[Mr.Phips]

If anything, Brown's win will give the voters of the state buyers remorse.  They will feel that they punished Democrats enough. 

[Dan the Roman]

It depends a lot on Brown, but its major effect is to scare a lot of democrats on Beacon Hill. If they are worried, they are unlikely to work with Patrick, something that was going to cause the governor trouble anyway given that many Democratic legislators would prefer Baker, especially with Richard Tisei on his ticket.

Cahill should be the won to benifit given his profile is closest to Brown's, but he has been surprisingly unenergetic, whereas Baker has raised a lot of money, and is now up on him without even having gone on air.

As for Patrick, he was never a sho-in. He is stuck at 25-30% in a 3-way race, and most of the undecideds are undecided between him an Cahill. Because neither opponent has much to attack, most voters will end up voting for which ever one can get rid of Patrick. As a result, I fully expect one of them to fall to the 10-12% range in September if not earlier. Probably Cahill.

If anything, this is a tossup, and I would personally put it as lean Republican. That at least is what most Bay State politicos seem to rate it. If you polled Beacon Hill, 60%+ of the staff would predict that Baker will be in come 2011. Of course anything can happen.....

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I concur that Patrick is anything but a shoe-in. His numbers are atrocious and unlikely to get better. He's a bad governor who is unable to lead, and he's passed tax increases and cut local aid, which just compounds his unpopularity. The problem with Baker, though, is that he is so phenomenally uninspiring as a public speaker and is going to come across just terribly on commercials. He's also directly tied to the health insurance industry, which is NOT a positive at this point.

I personally like Baker (because I think he'd make a good governor, not because I think he'd make a sparkling dinner guest) and have warmed up to support him over Cahill. Still, Baker is a self-described Weld Republican, and that will cost him some votes in the primary. Those people may never come home, thanks to Cahill tracking right to pick former State Rep. Paul Loscocco (R-Holliston), a pro-lifer, as his running mate.

Brown won because a significant portion of the Massachusetts voting populace is shallow and easily wooed by charisma. (It's part of why Brown is not in quite as much trouble in 2012 as everyone seems to automatically expect.) Patrick seemed to have it in 2006 (he clearly lacks it now) and Baker will never have it. Cahill had it and probably still does—but we'll see.

[nkpatel1279]

If Brown's 2012 Democratic opponent was either Capuano or Lynch.  How would each opponent do against Brown.

I am predicting that both candidates will defeat Brown.
Capuano can energize the Democratic party base and appeal to some of the blue collar voters that supported Brown.
Lynch- can easily cut into Brown's base among Blue Collar voters in South Boston. - Lynch has the same appeal as Brown.

[Bo]

1-3% swing to the Republican nominee.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Cahil has the most to gain, really. He fits in the best with the "Brown Voter".

[Bo]

Cahil has the most to gain, really. He fits in the best with the "Brown Voter".

How come Cahill is running as an Independent? Does Patrick control the Democratic machine in MA?

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Cahil has the most to gain, really. He fits in the best with the "Brown Voter".

How come Cahill is running as an Independent? Does Patrick control the Democratic machine in MA?

Yes, and that is why Cahill is now running as an independent.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I concur that Patrick is anything but a shoe-in. His numbers are atrocious and unlikely to get better. He's a bad governor who is unable to lead, and he's passed tax increases and cut local aid, which just compounds his unpopularity. The problem with Baker, though, is that he is so phenomenally uninspiring as a public speaker and is going to come across just terribly on commercials. He's also directly tied to the health insurance industry, which is NOT a positive at this point.

I personally like Baker (because I think he'd make a good governor, not because I think he'd make a sparkling dinner guest) and have warmed up to support him over Cahill. Still, Baker is a self-described Weld Republican, and that will cost him some votes in the primary. Those people may never come home, thanks to Cahill tracking right to pick former State Rep. Paul Loscocco (R-Holliston), a pro-lifer, as his running mate.

Brown won because a significant portion of the Massachusetts voting populace is shallow and easily wooed by charisma. (It's part of why Brown is not in quite as much trouble in 2012 as everyone seems to automatically expect.) Patrick seemed to have it in 2006 (he clearly lacks it now) and Baker will never have it. Cahill had it and probably still does—but we'll see.

I think that that seals me as a Cahill supporter.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Cahil has the most to gain, really. He fits in the best with the "Brown Voter".

How come Cahill is running as an Independent? Does Patrick control the Democratic machine in MA?

Yes, and that is why Cahill is now running as an independent.

Patrick is actually an anti-machine candidate. Cahil is running as an independent because he doesn't thing he could run as a fiscal conservative in the Dem priamry and win. So he is running as an Indepednet Fiscal Conservative with a Pro-Life Republican as his Lt. Gov running mate.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Cahil has the most to gain, really. He fits in the best with the "Brown Voter".

How come Cahill is running as an Independent? Does Patrick control the Democratic machine in MA?

Yes, and that is why Cahill is now running as an independent.

Patrick is actually an anti-machine candidate. Cahil is running as an independent because he doesn't thing he could run as a fiscal conservative in the Dem priamry and win. So he is running as an Indepednet Fiscal Conservative with a Pro-Life Republican as his Lt. Gov running mate.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Cahil has the most to gain, really. He fits in the best with the "Brown Voter".

How come Cahill is running as an Independent? Does Patrick control the Democratic machine in MA?

Yes, and that is why Cahill is now running as an independent.

Patrick is actually an anti-machine candidate. Cahil is running as an independent because he doesn't thing he could run as a fiscal conservative in the Dem priamry and win. So he is running as an Indepednet Fiscal Conservative with a Pro-Life Republican as his Lt. Gov running mate.

In 2006 he ran as the anti-machine Democrat. However he will proably be the default machine candidate for the dems seeking to avoid another embarrasing loss.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I really hope Cahill pulls it off. After the last senate race, an independent now taking down a Democratic machine politician would really show that Massachusetts is interested in real change.

[Verily]

I really hope Cahill pulls it off. After the last senate race, an independent now taking down a Democratic machine politician would really show that Massachusetts is interested in real change.

LOL. You are aware that Coakley and Cahill are really close political allies, right, practically two sides of the same coin?

Patrick is very much the anti-machine candidate, as he's always been. The traditional MA Democratic machine (the Irish political bosses, the [non-black] unions) will be backing Cahill. He's the epitome of machine politics in the state.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I really hope Cahill pulls it off. After the last senate race, an independent now taking down a Democratic machine politician would really show that Massachusetts is interested in real change.

LOL. You are aware that Coakley and Cahill are really close political allies, right, practically two sides of the same coin?

Patrick is very much the anti-machine candidate, as he's always been. The traditional MA Democratic machine (the Irish political bosses, the [non-black] unions) will be backing Cahill.

Cahill's policy positions are not Coakley's.

[Verily]

I really hope Cahill pulls it off. After the last senate race, an independent now taking down a Democratic machine politician would really show that Massachusetts is interested in real change.

LOL. You are aware that Coakley and Cahill are really close political allies, right, practically two sides of the same coin?

Patrick is very much the anti-machine candidate, as he's always been. The traditional MA Democratic machine (the Irish political bosses, the [non-black] unions) will be backing Cahill.

Cahill's policy positions are not Coakley's.

They were until he decided to run as an independent, much as Coakley's were his until she had to run in a Democratic primary. Plus, where he differs from his past is in social issues--I never took you for someone who gets really worked up about abortion but supports union activity.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I really hope Cahill pulls it off. After the last senate race, an independent now taking down a Democratic machine politician would really show that Massachusetts is interested in real change.

LOL. You are aware that Coakley and Cahill are really close political allies, right, practically two sides of the same coin?

Patrick is very much the anti-machine candidate, as he's always been. The traditional MA Democratic machine (the Irish political bosses, the [non-black] unions) will be backing Cahill.

Cahill's policy positions are not Coakley's.

They were until he decided to run as an independent, much as Coakley's were his until she had to run in a Democratic primary. Plus, where he differs from his past is in social issues--I never took you for someone who gets really worked up about abortion but supports union activity.

Cahill was and is a fiscal conservative. Coakley was and is not.

Cahill has a pro-life running mate. Coakley was a radical pro-abortionist.

[Sewer]

radical pro-abortionist.

{_&

[Verily]

I really hope Cahill pulls it off. After the last senate race, an independent now taking down a Democratic machine politician would really show that Massachusetts is interested in real change.

LOL. You are aware that Coakley and Cahill are really close political allies, right, practically two sides of the same coin?

Patrick is very much the anti-machine candidate, as he's always been. The traditional MA Democratic machine (the Irish political bosses, the [non-black] unions) will be backing Cahill.

Cahill's policy positions are not Coakley's.

They were until he decided to run as an independent, much as Coakley's were his until she had to run in a Democratic primary. Plus, where he differs from his past is in social issues--I never took you for someone who gets really worked up about abortion but supports union activity.

Cahill was and is a fiscal conservative. Coakley was and is not.

Cahill has a pro-life running mate. Coakley was a radical pro-abortionist.

Cahill, a fiscal conservative? Let me go laugh out my window. And Coakley a radical pro-abortionist? Let me go barf out my window. Believe what you want, but you're just a delusional hack who attaches himself to candidates for no tangible reasons other than supposed anti-establishment nature and then pretends that they have views they truly do not.

[Bo]

Cahil has the most to gain, really. He fits in the best with the "Brown Voter".

How come Cahill is running as an Independent? Does Patrick control the Democratic machine in MA?

Yes, and that is why Cahill is now running as an independent.

Patrick is actually an anti-machine candidate. Cahil is running as an independent because he doesn't thing he could run as a fiscal conservative in the Dem priamry and win. So he is running as an Indepednet Fiscal Conservative with a Pro-Life Republican as his Lt. Gov running mate.

I thought Democrats like fiscal conservaties. I thought they didn't like economic and social conservatives.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I really hope Cahill pulls it off. After the last senate race, an independent now taking down a Democratic machine politician would really show that Massachusetts is interested in real change.

LOL. You are aware that Coakley and Cahill are really close political allies, right, practically two sides of the same coin?

Patrick is very much the anti-machine candidate, as he's always been. The traditional MA Democratic machine (the Irish political bosses, the [non-black] unions) will be backing Cahill.

Cahill's policy positions are not Coakley's.

They were until he decided to run as an independent, much as Coakley's were his until she had to run in a Democratic primary. Plus, where he differs from his past is in social issues--I never took you for someone who gets really worked up about abortion but supports union activity.

Cahill was and is a fiscal conservative. Coakley was and is not.

Cahill has a pro-life running mate. Coakley was a radical pro-abortionist.

Cahill, a fiscal conservative? Let me go laugh out my window. And Coakley a radical pro-abortionist? Let me go barf out my window. Believe what you want, but you're just a delusional hack who attaches himself to candidates for no tangible reasons other than supposed anti-establishment nature and then pretends that they have views they truly do not.

Personal attacks against me, while you're the one who is clueless here.

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[Verily]

Cahil has the most to gain, really. He fits in the best with the "Brown Voter".

How come Cahill is running as an Independent? Does Patrick control the Democratic machine in MA?

Yes, and that is why Cahill is now running as an independent.

Patrick is actually an anti-machine candidate. Cahil is running as an independent because he doesn't thing he could run as a fiscal conservative in the Dem priamry and win. So he is running as an Indepednet Fiscal Conservative with a Pro-Life Republican as his Lt. Gov running mate.

I thought Democrats like fiscal conservaties. I thought they didn't like economic and social conservatives.

For one, "fiscal conservative" is an artificial term that doesn't mean anything different, in practice, from "economic conservative". I suppose you could want it to mean "fiscally responsible" (in which case defining it as such is accepting conservative framing, but whatever), but then everyone claims that mantle and few politicians of any stripe meet it.

As for Libertas's perpetual idiocy, Cahill has his little foray into support for Prop-13-for-MA, which I suppose one could call "fiscally conservative". (In any case, it's highly fiscally irresponsible; you can see what it has wrought in California; ask Torie about it.) He has also been state treasurer, which gives any politician a nice pulpit from which to decry budgets without doing anything about them. When actually making decisions, Cahill has been no more fiscally responsible than any other politician, typically less.

[Eraserhead]

I'd vote happily for Patrick. Cahill is a piece of trash.

[Brittain33]

Patrick is very much the anti-machine candidate, as he's always been. The traditional MA Democratic machine (the Irish political bosses, the [non-black] unions) will be backing Cahill. He's the epitome of machine politics in the state.

Thank you. Being the incumbent does not automagically make you the "machine" candidate in Mass.!