How many State Senate seats will the GOP have in Arkansas after the election?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

They currently have 8. There are only 14 seats up for election, of which 11 are Democratic-held, meaning they'd need to take all but one to take it (probably close to mathematically impossible, I'm sure at least two seats have too many blacks to be winnable.)

Based on a rough scan of what is up, I bet they'll take 5/11 of those, resulting in 13/35.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Your numbers are off. There are 17 seats up, 15 held by Dems, and 8 of those are uncontested, so the highest number of potential Republican pickups is 7.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wikipedia is wrong then.

So it is mathematically impossible for them to take it.

[minionofmidas]

Who cares? Arkansas law makes gerrymandering near-impossible anyhow.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Who cares? Arkansas law makes gerrymandering near-impossible anyhow.

I would say the more interesting question is whether the federal-level Democrats' troubles are going to translate to pain for the local Democrats. It's obviously not hurting Beebe, but Republicans could make significant gains at the state legislative level.

[Niemeyerite]

8 seats, the 8 they have now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who cares? Arkansas law makes gerrymandering near-impossible anyhow.

I would say the more interesting question is whether the federal-level Democrats' troubles are going to translate to pain for the local Democrats. It's obviously not hurting Beebe, but Republicans could make significant gains at the state legislative level.

Basically. Though I may have to revise my prediction depending on where the uncontested seats are. I mostly based my prediction on seats the Democrats have in areas they have no business winning. There's two from the Little Rock suburbs and three in NW Arkansas, of which at least one appears to be a seat even Clinton couldn't win in either of his elections. The Arkansas GOP is really THAT pathetic. And honestly I doubt that'll improve much even after this year.

[Dgov]

Who Knows.  Maybe this is going to be their "Shake off the cobwebs" election where they finally start to actually do well.  I mean, the state has elected a total of 1 Republican Senator and 2 Republican Governors, 1 for only a single term and the other who got into office because the sitting governor was convicted for fraud.  They may like the Republicans on a National level, but they're in love with their state Democratic party.

This isn't limited to Arkansas either, the South in general is still solidly Democratic on the State level.  But Republicans are making gains.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just remembered this. They now have 15...meaning they must've won every contested seat. Wow.