Critz vs. Burns for PA-12

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The median age in this district is 42, fwiw.

Anyway, about a fifth of the potential electorate in PA-12 is under the age of 35. But this is the sort of area where young people do not vote.

[J. J.]

Looks like they underpolled youngs by quite a bit.

In that district, there are limited "youngs."

It's a rust belt area, and only one or two branch campuses.

When I was living there 20 years ago, the big social group was "The Retired Men's Club."  I'm serious.

[Sam Spade]

I actually didn't know that anyone under 30 lived out there.  (just joking of course)

[Lunar]

Looks like they underpolled youngs by quite a bit.

What kind of over-18 youth would live in PA-12?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looks like they underpolled youngs by quite a bit.

What kind of over-18 youth would live in PA-12?

College dropouts/recent grads who moved back in with their parents, considering how common that is today.

[Mr.Phips]

After doing some numbers and analysis, I have to believe that Critz is favored here.  Before 2008, no Democratic Presidential candidate has lost this district in its current configuration since 1972.  The reason Obama lost this district was certainly his race.  Case in point, even Democratic Supreme Court nominee Jack Panella in 2009, who lost statewide by six points, carried this district 51%-49%. 

[J. J.]

Looks like they underpolled youngs by quite a bit.

What kind of over-18 youth would live in PA-12?

College dropouts/recent grads who moved back in with their parents, considering how common that is today.

Most of those are in their forties at this point. 

Seriously, it is a very old district.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

College dropouts/recent grads who moved back in with their parents, considering how common that is today.

I suspect that most people who grow up in the district don't ever go to university. Which hints at the answer to Lunar's question.

[Sam Spade]

College dropouts/recent grads who moved back in with their parents, considering how common that is today.

I suspect that most people who grow up in the district don't ever go to university. Which hints at the answer to Lunar's question.

Poors?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

College dropouts/recent grads who moved back in with their parents, considering how common that is today.

I suspect that most people who grow up in the district don't ever go to university. Which hints at the answer to Lunar's question.

Poors?

Yeah. Especially the sort that don't have jobs but don't show up on unemployment statistics. Which also means that they mostly won't be voting either.

[Brittain33]

While I'm sure this district probably ranks toward the bottom of the country for 18-29 population, there have been a number of Senate polls this year with extremely low participation rates for this age group out of line with reality. 4% is not realistic and says more about polling than demographics. That said, I doubt it makes much of a difference.

The Census claims 12.7% for 20-29 with an additional implied 3.5% for 18-19, for a total of 16.2%. Voting participation in a special election will be lower, even disproportionately lower than it is in a general election, but not that much. 

[nclib]

The census 2008 estimates claim that 87.3% of the residents of PA-12 were born in the state of Pennsylvania. IIRC, only the Cajun districts have such numbers for births in home state, that high.

[cinyc]

While I'm sure this district probably ranks toward the bottom of the country for 18-29 population, there have been a number of Senate polls this year with extremely low participation rates for this age group out of line with reality. 4% is not realistic and says more about polling than demographics. That said, I doubt it makes much of a difference.

The Census claims 12.7% for 20-29 with an additional implied 3.5% for 18-19, for a total of 16.2%. Voting participation in a special election will be lower, even disproportionately lower than it is in a general election, but not that much.  

The 2009 New Jersey and Virginia exit polls showed 18-29s comprised 9% and 10% of the electorate, respectively.   Based on my imputation of the 2008 census estimates, about 18.5% of New Jersey voting-age residents and 21% of Virginia voting-age residents were 18-29s.  That means about half of all 18-29s showed up to vote in the big 2009 elections, relative to their percentage of the voting-age population.

If your numbers are correct and about 50% of PA-12 18-29s show up to vote, they should be about 8% of the electorate.  

But 18-29s might not turn out in the same proportions in an irregularly scheduled special election as they would for a regularly scheduled general election.  FWIW, this website claims only 15% of Massachusetts 18-29s showed up to vote in the Massachusetts Special Election based on some bizarre imputation of Rasmussen's last poll (remember - there was no exit poll).   According to that website, 18-29 MA turnout was lower than NJ (19%) or VA (17%).  

So the 18-29s in PA-12 could very well end up being lower than 8% of the total turnout in the special election.   Probably not 4%, but 4% is not so far off as to skew the results much.

[J. J.]

College dropouts/recent grads who moved back in with their parents, considering how common that is today.

I suspect that most people who grow up in the district don't ever go to university. Which hints at the answer to Lunar's question.

They do, but they don't move back.  I think that about 20% of my graduating class went to college, even if they didn't graduate; less than 10% live in the general area.

The census 2008 estimates claim that 87.3% of the residents of PA-12 were born in the state of Pennsylvania. IIRC, only the Cajun districts have such numbers for births in home state, that high.

I'm interested in genealogy and was looking at Western Pennsylvania families around the Revolutionary way.  I kept finding surnames of people I knew from high school.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They do, but they don't move back.  I think that about 20% of my graduating class went to college, even if they didn't graduate; less than 10% live in the general area.

Yeah; that's the usual pattern with depressed areas. Key points being that a) less kids than normal go to uni and that b) those that do generally don't come back. Which is 'perfect' for young voters making up an unusually small share of people who actually vote.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Historically perhaps, but now probably a majority of students move in with their parents now after graduating, and as many as a third stay for longer than a year.

[J. J.]

They do, but they don't move back.  I think that about 20% of my graduating class went to college, even if they didn't graduate; less than 10% live in the general area.

Yeah; that's the usual pattern with depressed areas. Key points being that a) less kids than normal go to uni and that b) those that do generally don't come back. Which is 'perfect' for young voters making up an unusually small share of people who actually vote.

I took the 10% as still being in a county in the congressional district.

The bulk that have a degree and remain are nurses.  Because of skewed population, the largest industry in Johnstown, when I left, were the hospitals.  

Out of my senior class of 103, 38 live outside of the district.

[J. J.]

Historically perhaps, but now probably a majority of students move in with their parents now after graduating, and as many as a third stay for longer than a year.

You don't have that many in college.  The demographics are really old.

[Lunar]

College dropouts/recent grads who moved back in with their parents, considering how common that is today.

I suspect that most people who grow up in the district don't ever go to university. Which hints at the answer to Lunar's question.

Poors?

Yeah. Especially the sort that don't have jobs but don't show up on unemployment statistics. Which also means that they mostly won't be voting either.

Which means they won't show up as likely voters on a lot of polling operations with tight screens...which means that maybe they weren't possibly undersampled after all...I mean, the district is the most horribly gerrymandered district for non-racial reasons in the country, I imagine a lot of people who technically grew up there live just outside the district...

[Eraserhead]

I don't know if anyone posted them here but the two polls that I saw of the race had the Democrat with small but statistically significant leads.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't know if anyone posted them here but the two polls that I saw of the race had the Democrat with small but statistically significant leads.

Yes, I posted those two pages ago.

[Tender Branson]

PPP says Obama is "massively unpopular" in the district, but the special election race is very close.

PA-12 is really trending away from the Democrats:

In 2000, it was 4% more DEM than PA.

In 2004, it was about as DEM as PA.

In 2008, it was 6% less DEM than PA.

So, I guess it is about 8% less DEM than PA as a whole now.

An given the latest PA polls of likely voters showing 46% approving of Obama, I guess the poll will show something like 37-39% approve and 56-58% disapprove in the district.

[Brittain33]

So, I guess it is about 8% less DEM than PA as a whole now.

This district may well be trending away from Democrats, but I doubt that any shift since 2008 has happened relative to the state as a whole, given that Toomey is leading in Senate polls.

[Tender Branson]

An given the latest PA polls of likely voters showing 46% approving of Obama, I guess the poll will show something like 37-39% approve and 56-58% disapprove in the district.

Well, the actual numbers are

33% Approve
57% Disapprove

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/04/pa-12-poll-preview.html

Support and opposition are not as "hard" as they are in all of PA (46% approve, 50% disapprove), but if we allocate the undecided it´s something like 37-63 for PA-12 and 48-52 for PA as a whole.

That makes the district now 10-12% less DEM than PA, a trend seen since 2000 at least.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Republicans are touting a poll that has Critz up by 1, so I'm curious to see what PPP's numbers will look like: